Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment</li>
<li>Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US continue to be $132 (testing now), $130, $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. All signs point to the ACWI-US uptrend continuing for the foreseeable future.</li>
<li>Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out; Japan Also Remains Attractive. Buys in Consumer Discretionary (primarily autos/parts), Industrials, Services, Health Care, Materials, Financials, and Real Estate</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment
Short-Term supports to watch on ACWI-US continue to be $132 (testing now), $130, $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50. All signs point to the ACWI-US uptrend continuing for the foreseeable future.
Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out; Japan Also Remains Attractive. Buys in Consumer Discretionary (primarily autos/parts), Industrials, Services, Health Care, Materials, Financials, and Real Estate


Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Fosun Pharma outlicensed XH-S004 to Expedition Therapeutics for $120M upfront and milestone payment. Remegen’s drug candidate met primary endpoint in Phase 3 trial for Sjögren's syndrome in China.</li>
<li>Astellas Pharma announced positive topline results from the Phase 3 trial evaluating Padcev in bladder cancer. Daewoong Pharmaceutical announced positive result for their self-developed semaglutide microneedle patch.</li>
<li>Zydus Lifesciences received FDA approval for chest pain drug Diltiazem Hydrochloride tablets. Lupin has partnered with Sandoz to market and commercialize Lupin’s biosimilar ranibizumab across multiple regions.</li>
</ul>


Fosun Pharma outlicensed XH-S004 to Expedition Therapeutics for $120M upfront and milestone payment. Remegen’s drug candidate met primary endpoint in Phase 3 trial for Sjögren's syndrome in China.
Astellas Pharma announced positive topline results from the Phase 3 trial evaluating Padcev in bladder cancer. Daewoong Pharmaceutical announced positive result for their self-developed semaglutide microneedle patch.
Zydus Lifesciences received FDA approval for chest pain drug Diltiazem Hydrochloride tablets. Lupin has partnered with Sandoz to market and commercialize Lupin’s biosimilar ranibizumab across multiple regions.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Aug 17) – Fosun Pharma, Remegen, Astellas, Daewoong Pharma, Zydus, Lupin

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>During Q1FY26, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ono-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8979:1" rel="noopener">Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP)</a>  reported revenue of ¥127.5B, an increase of 8% YoY. Opdivo witnessed 8% decrease in revenue to ¥29.4B mainly due to increased competition.  </li>
<li>Opdivo is facing competition from Keytruda. Ono guided Opdivo revenue in FY26 to be ¥138.5B (Japan: ¥125B, up 4% and Overseas: ¥13.5B, up 3%), up 4% YoY.</li>
<li>In FY26, Opdivo’s revenue growth will come from indication expansion but smaller addressable patient population remains a concern for long term.</li>
</ul>


During Q1FY26, Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP)  reported revenue of ¥127.5B, an increase of 8% YoY. Opdivo witnessed 8% decrease in revenue to ¥29.4B mainly due to increased competition.  
Opdivo is facing competition from Keytruda. Ono guided Opdivo revenue in FY26 to be ¥138.5B (Japan: ¥125B, up 4% and Overseas: ¥13.5B, up 3%), up 4% YoY.
In FY26, Opdivo’s revenue growth will come from indication expansion but smaller addressable patient population remains a concern for long term.


Ono Pharma (4528 JP): Forxiga and Acquisition Drives 1QFY26, Opdivo Takes a Backseat on Competition

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-pharma-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1935:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP)</a> reported 19% YoY (negative Fx impact of 7%) revenue growth during Q1FY26 to ¥108B, mainly driven by North America.</li>
<li>Orgovyx witnessed growth in medicare patients due to reduction in out-of-pocket caps and Gemtesa on the other hand improved market share employing price focussed strategy.</li>
<li>Sumitomo Pharma is well on track moving ahead of the significant losses suffered in FY23 and FY24, focusing on expanding revenue, reducing costs, and securing future business drivers.</li>
</ul>



Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) reported 19% YoY (negative Fx impact of 7%) revenue growth during Q1FY26 to ¥108B, mainly driven by North America.
Orgovyx witnessed growth in medicare patients due to reduction in out-of-pocket caps and Gemtesa on the other hand improved market share employing price focussed strategy.
Sumitomo Pharma is well on track moving ahead of the significant losses suffered in FY23 and FY24, focusing on expanding revenue, reducing costs, and securing future business drivers.


Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Orgovyx, Gemtesa Strong; Promise in Oncology and Regenerative Line Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/otsuka-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12292:1" rel="noopener">Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP)</a> sees 7% revenue growth in 1H25, despite negative Fx impact. Mainstay pharmaceutical business (+9% YoY) drove revenue. Rexulti and Abilify franchise were strong.</li>
<li>Otsuka kept 2025 revenue guidance unchanged, the company raised guidance for business, operating, and net profits for 2025 mainly due to lower than anticipated operating expenses due to Fx impact.</li>
<li>Otsuka stated that pharmaceutical business has no impact by additional US tariffs. Two top selling drugs are steadily gaining traction. Going ahead, new launches should further drive growth.</li>
</ul>



Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP) sees 7% revenue growth in 1H25, despite negative Fx impact. Mainstay pharmaceutical business (+9% YoY) drove revenue. Rexulti and Abilify franchise were strong.
Otsuka kept 2025 revenue guidance unchanged, the company raised guidance for business, operating, and net profits for 2025 mainly due to lower than anticipated operating expenses due to Fx impact.
Otsuka stated that pharmaceutical business has no impact by additional US tariffs. Two top selling drugs are steadily gaining traction. Going ahead, new launches should further drive growth.


Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Better-Than-Expected 1H Performance Leads 2025 Guidance Raise

Japan

Astellas Pharma Inc. is a pharmaceutical company committed to the therapeutic fields of Urology, Immunology including Transplantation and Infectious Diseases, Oncology, Neuroscience and DM Complications and Metabolic Diseases. With over 17,000 global employees, Astellas researches, develops, manufactures, and promotes its prescription drugs through subsidiaries in the US, Europe, and Asia

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Astellas Pharma (4503 JP)

Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

Upgrading China to Overweight. Europe Breaking Out. Japan Remains Attractive. All signs point to the $ACWI uptrend continuing for the foreseeable...

Vermilion Research

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Aug 17) – Fosun Pharma, Remegen, Astellas, Daewoong Pharma, Zydus, Lupin

Astellas, Remegen, and Daewoong Pharma announced positive trial results for their respective drug candidates. Fosun Pharma stuck outlicensing deal....

Tina Banerjee

Ono Pharma (4528 JP): Forxiga and Acquisition Drives 1QFY26, Opdivo Takes a Backseat on Competition

Ono Pharmaceutical's Q1FY26 revenue increased 8% YoY. Opdivo revenue decreased 8% YoY due to competition. Despite indication expansion, concerns...

Tina Banerjee

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Orgovyx, Gemtesa Strong; Promise in Oncology and Regenerative Line Up

Sumitomo Pharma sees 19% YoY revenue growth in Q1FY26 driven by North America. The company is well on track for moving ahead of the significant...

Tina Banerjee

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Better-Than-Expected 1H Performance Leads 2025 Guidance Raise

Otsuka reports 7% revenue growth in 1H25 driven by strong pharmaceutical business. The company maintains 2025 revenue guidance but raises profit...

Tina Banerjee

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Dividend (Yield)

Upgrading China to Overweight; Europe Breaking Out

Upgrading China to Overweight. Europe Breaking Out. Japan Remains Attractive. All signs point to the $ACWI uptrend continuing for the foreseeable...

Vermilion Research

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Aug 17) – Fosun Pharma, Remegen, Astellas, Daewoong Pharma, Zydus, Lupin

Astellas, Remegen, and Daewoong Pharma announced positive trial results for their respective drug candidates. Fosun Pharma stuck outlicensing deal....

Tina Banerjee

Ono Pharma (4528 JP): Forxiga and Acquisition Drives 1QFY26, Opdivo Takes a Backseat on Competition

​Ono Pharmaceutical's Q1FY26 revenue increased 8% YoY. Opdivo revenue decreased 8% YoY due to competition. Despite indication expansion, concerns...

Tina Banerjee

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Orgovyx, Gemtesa Strong; Promise in Oncology and Regenerative Line Up

​Sumitomo Pharma sees 19% YoY revenue growth in Q1FY26 driven by North America. The company is well on track for moving ahead of the significant...

Tina Banerjee

Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP): Better-Than-Expected 1H Performance Leads 2025 Guidance Raise

​Otsuka reports 7% revenue growth in 1H25 driven by strong pharmaceutical business. The company maintains 2025 revenue guidance but raises profit...

Tina Banerjee

Ono Pharmaceutical's Q1FY26 revenue increased 8% YoY. Opdivo revenue decreased 8% YoY due to competition. Despite indication expansion, concerns...

Sumitomo Pharma sees 19% YoY revenue growth in Q1FY26 driven by North America. The company is well on track for moving ahead of the significant...

Otsuka reports 7% revenue growth in 1H25 driven by strong pharmaceutical business. The company maintains 2025 revenue guidance but raises profit...