Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Aster DM Healthcare Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aster-dm-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23662:1" rel="noopener">Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN)</a> reported double-digit growth in revenue and EBITDA in Q2FY26, led by substantial recovery in Kerala, strong growth in international revenue, and better case mix.</li>
<li>In Q2FY26, Kerala delivered its highest-ever quarterly revenue of INR6B, growing 24% increase over Q4 FY25. Profitability improved sharply, with EBITDA margins expanding to 26.8% from 22.3% in Q4FY25.</li>
<li>Since our initiation of Aster DM as ‘2025 High Conviction’ idea in last November, shares rose ~55%. Main investment thesis of margin improvement still holds good.</li>
</ul>



Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN) reported double-digit growth in revenue and EBITDA in Q2FY26, led by substantial recovery in Kerala, strong growth in international revenue, and better case mix.
In Q2FY26, Kerala delivered its highest-ever quarterly revenue of INR6B, growing 24% increase over Q4 FY25. Profitability improved sharply, with EBITDA margins expanding to 26.8% from 22.3% in Q4FY25.
Since our initiation of Aster DM as ‘2025 High Conviction’ idea in last November, shares rose ~55%. Main investment thesis of margin improvement still holds good.


2025 High Conviction Update: Aster DM (ASTERDM IN)- Stable Q2 Show on Continued Business Recovery

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aster-dm-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23662:1" rel="noopener">Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN)</a> reported 8% revenue growth in Q1FY26, driven by a 14% rise in ARPOB and 4% reduction in ALOS. EBITDA margin expanded 230bps to 20.0%.</li>
<li>Kerala revenue grew 5% as compared with 4% decline in Q4FY25, driven by 6% QoQ increase in-patient volumes and 200 bps QoQ increase in occupancy, reflecting early signs of recovery.</li>
<li>Q1FY26 results ensure that the momentum is back. With strong base business, proposed merger with QCIL, and expansion plan, Aster DM is well-positioned for 20%+ revenue growth through FY28.</li>
</ul>



Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN) reported 8% revenue growth in Q1FY26, driven by a 14% rise in ARPOB and 4% reduction in ALOS. EBITDA margin expanded 230bps to 20.0%.
Kerala revenue grew 5% as compared with 4% decline in Q4FY25, driven by 6% QoQ increase in-patient volumes and 200 bps QoQ increase in occupancy, reflecting early signs of recovery.
Q1FY26 results ensure that the momentum is back. With strong base business, proposed merger with QCIL, and expansion plan, Aster DM is well-positioned for 20%+ revenue growth through FY28.


2025 High Conviction Update: Aster DM (ASTERDM IN)- Starts FY26 On High Note; Announces New Hospital

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aster-dm-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23662:1" rel="noopener">Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN)</a> reported 4% revenue decline in Kerala due to festivities, lower international patient, and leadership transition. Ramadan impact caused 2.5–3.0% of the revenue hit.</li>
<li>Going ahead, the company is eyeing for atleast mid-teens growth from Kerala cluster, with 7–8% will be with volumes and balance 7–8% will come from the ARPOB.  </li>
<li>Aster’s base business is on a stable growth path. Margin levers are intact. With QCIL merger synergies, the company aims for EBITDA margin of 23–24% in 3–4 years.</li>
</ul>



Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN) reported 4% revenue decline in Kerala due to festivities, lower international patient, and leadership transition. Ramadan impact caused 2.5–3.0% of the revenue hit.
Going ahead, the company is eyeing for atleast mid-teens growth from Kerala cluster, with 7–8% will be with volumes and balance 7–8% will come from the ARPOB.  
Aster’s base business is on a stable growth path. Margin levers are intact. With QCIL merger synergies, the company aims for EBITDA margin of 23–24% in 3–4 years.


2025 High Conviction Update: Aster DM(ASTERDM IN)-Occupancy to Recover; Margin Improvement Continues

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aster-dm-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23662:1" rel="noopener">Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN)</a> reported stellar performance in Q3FY25. Revenue achieved 11% YoY growth to INR10.5B, driven by increased patient volumes and growth in ARPOB. </li>
<li>Consistent growth across core businesses, combined with strategic cost optimization, operational efficiencies, and optimized service mix, have significantly strengthened margins, with Q3FY25 operating EBITDA margins standing at 19.3% (Q3FY24: 17.7%).</li>
<li>Our original investment thesis is intact. Margin levers are working well. Expansion plan is on track. Macro trend is favorable. Merger with Quality Care can be a game changer.</li>
</ul>



Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN) reported stellar performance in Q3FY25. Revenue achieved 11% YoY growth to INR10.5B, driven by increased patient volumes and growth in ARPOB. 
Consistent growth across core businesses, combined with strategic cost optimization, operational efficiencies, and optimized service mix, have significantly strengthened margins, with Q3FY25 operating EBITDA margins standing at 19.3% (Q3FY24: 17.7%).
Our original investment thesis is intact. Margin levers are working well. Expansion plan is on track. Macro trend is favorable. Merger with Quality Care can be a game changer.


2025 High Conviction Update: Aster DM Healthcare (ASTERDM IN) Q3 Result- Margin Expansion Continues

Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/narayana-hrudayalaya-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26939:1" rel="noopener">Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd (NARH IN)</a> reported revenue growth of 12% over the last two years, which is on the lower side compared to the peers.</li>
<li>Capacity constraint is the major setback. Until the company adds new greenfield capacity, there will be no significant change in volume. Near-term growth expectation is subdued.</li>
<li>Compared to peers, NHL is a late mover in capacity expansion. Significant greenfield expansion is scheduled to complete in FY28, through which nearly 1,100 beds will be added.</li>
</ul>



Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd (NARH IN) reported revenue growth of 12% over the last two years, which is on the lower side compared to the peers.
Capacity constraint is the major setback. Until the company adds new greenfield capacity, there will be no significant change in volume. Near-term growth expectation is subdued.
Compared to peers, NHL is a late mover in capacity expansion. Significant greenfield expansion is scheduled to complete in FY28, through which nearly 1,100 beds will be added.


Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd (NARH IN): All That Cheap Is Not Always Value Buying Opportunity

India

Aster DM Healthcare Limited provides health care services. The Company offers cardiology, cardiac and spine surgery, oncology, orthopedics, neurology and urology, oncology, gastroenterology and hepatology services. Aster DM Healthcare serves patients worldwide.

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Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN)

2025 High Conviction Update: Aster DM (ASTERDM IN)- Stable Q2 Show on Continued Business Recovery

Aster DM reported double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth in Q2FY26, led by substantial recovery in Kerala and better case mix. Kerala delivered its...

Tina Banerjee

2025 High Conviction Update: Aster DM (ASTERDM IN)- Starts FY26 On High Note; Announces New Hospital

Aster DM reported 8% revenue growth in Q1FY26, driven by increased ARPOB and reduced ALOS. Strong performance indicates momentum is back, with...

Tina Banerjee

2025 High Conviction Update: Aster DM(ASTERDM IN)-Occupancy to Recover; Margin Improvement Continues

Aster DM reported 2% revenue growth in 4QFY25 due to revenue decline in Kerala. The company aims for mid-teens growth from Kerala and EBITDA...

Tina Banerjee

2025 High Conviction Update: Aster DM Healthcare (ASTERDM IN) Q3 Result- Margin Expansion Continues

Aster DM achieved 11% revenue growth to INR10.5B in Q3FY25, with operating EBITDA margins standing at 19.3% (vs. Q3FY24: 17.7%). The company aims...

Tina Banerjee

Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd (NARH IN): All That Cheap Is Not Always Value Buying Opportunity

NHL starts FY26 on muted note, with Q1FY26 revenue from India operation increasing just 8% YoY, EBITDA margin narrowing to 23.9% (Q1FY25: 24.9%),...

Tina Banerjee

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2025 High Conviction Update: Aster DM (ASTERDM IN)- Stable Q2 Show on Continued Business Recovery

Aster DM reported double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth in Q2FY26, led by substantial recovery in Kerala and better case mix. Kerala delivered its...

Tina Banerjee

2025 High Conviction Update: Aster DM (ASTERDM IN)- Starts FY26 On High Note; Announces New Hospital

​Aster DM reported 8% revenue growth in Q1FY26, driven by increased ARPOB and reduced ALOS. Strong performance indicates momentum is back, with...

Tina Banerjee

2025 High Conviction Update: Aster DM(ASTERDM IN)-Occupancy to Recover; Margin Improvement Continues

​Aster DM reported 2% revenue growth in 4QFY25 due to revenue decline in Kerala. The company aims for mid-teens growth from Kerala and EBITDA...

Tina Banerjee

2025 High Conviction Update: Aster DM Healthcare (ASTERDM IN) Q3 Result- Margin Expansion Continues

Aster DM achieved 11% revenue growth to INR10.5B in Q3FY25, with operating EBITDA margins standing at 19.3% (vs. Q3FY24: 17.7%). The company aims...

Tina Banerjee

Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd (NARH IN): All That Cheap Is Not Always Value Buying Opportunity

NHL starts FY26 on muted note, with Q1FY26 revenue from India operation increasing just 8% YoY, EBITDA margin narrowing to 23.9% (Q1FY25: 24.9%),...

Tina Banerjee

Aster DM reported 8% revenue growth in Q1FY26, driven by increased ARPOB and reduced ALOS. Strong performance indicates momentum is back, with...

Aster DM reported 2% revenue growth in 4QFY25 due to revenue decline in Kerala. The company aims for mid-teens growth from Kerala and EBITDA...