Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.</li>
<li>Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.</li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) , S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.
Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.


EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASX is seeing the number of listed companies in decline, although there are some positives with average daily turnover and secondary listings. </li>
<li>Higher costs are keeping positives from reaching the bottom line fully, with costs to revenue are now 40% in 1H24 where this was 29% in recent interim periods.</li>
<li>Capex plans for ASX and sticky inflationary figures on staff costs, the current year and following year net profit can see reasonable pressure.</li>
</ul>


ASX is seeing the number of listed companies in decline, although there are some positives with average daily turnover and secondary listings. 
Higher costs are keeping positives from reaching the bottom line fully, with costs to revenue are now 40% in 1H24 where this was 29% in recent interim periods.
Capex plans for ASX and sticky inflationary figures on staff costs, the current year and following year net profit can see reasonable pressure.


ASX - Listed Companies in Decline, Costs Soaring, Weaker Profit Can Be Dramatic

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guzman-y-gomez" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43656:1" rel="noopener">Guzman Y Gomez (0817833D AU)</a> has raised A$335.1m in a primary + secondary offering, valuing the company at A$2.23bn. The stock starts trading on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asx-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:552:1" rel="noopener">ASX Ltd (ASX AU)</a> today.</li>
<li>Just over 54% of the shares are escrowed which means there is a lot of stock that will be available for sale on listing day.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guzman-y-gomez" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43656:1" rel="noopener">Guzman Y Gomez (0817833D AU)</a> could be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index in September and there could be global index inclusions in November and December.</li>
</ul>



Guzman Y Gomez (0817833D AU) has raised A$335.1m in a primary + secondary offering, valuing the company at A$2.23bn. The stock starts trading on the ASX Ltd (ASX AU) today.
Just over 54% of the shares are escrowed which means there is a lot of stock that will be available for sale on listing day.

Guzman Y Gomez (0817833D AU) could be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index in September and there could be global index inclusions in November and December.


Guzman Y Gomez IPO: Listing & Index Inclusion Timeline

Asia Real Estate News Tracker, Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate News Tracker

Tracking developments across Asia's regional real estate markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Link REIT from Hong Kong has completed the sale of a Singapore shopping center for $196.3 million.</li><li>Mapletree's Australian office fund has reported a significant loss of $58 million from a Brisbane property sale.</li><li>Australian AI startup Firmus has successfully raised $505 million in equity funding, led by Coatue.</li></ul>

Link REIT from Hong Kong has completed the sale of a Singapore shopping center for $196.3 million.Mapletree's Australian office fund has reported a significant loss of $58 million from a Brisbane property sale.Australian AI startup Firmus has successfully raised $505 million in equity funding, led by Coatue.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (09-Apr-2026): Hong Kong's Link REIT sells Singapore mall for $196.3M.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC: +10.2% Premium; Below -1 SD Band; Long the ADR Spread</li>
<li>UMC: -8.3% Discount; Below -1 SD Band; Long the ADR Spread</li>
<li>ASE: -11.3% Discount; Below -1 SD Band; Long the ADR Spread</li>
</ul>


TSMC: +10.2% Premium; Below -1 SD Band; Long the ADR Spread
UMC: -8.3% Discount; Below -1 SD Band; Long the ADR Spread
ASE: -11.3% Discount; Below -1 SD Band; Long the ADR Spread


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC, UMC, ASE and ChipMOS All Signal Long the ADR Spread

Australia

ASX Ltd is a demutualized company which operates Australia's primary national stock exchange and equity derivatives market. The ASX operates markets for equities, derivatives, fixed-interest securities and capital-raising for unlisted companies using advanced computer systems for both trading and settlement.

Price Gauge
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ASX Ltd (ASX AU)

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

ASX - Listed Companies in Decline, Costs Soaring, Weaker Profit Can Be Dramatic

ASX is seeing listed companies in decline. Higher avg T/O and secondary capital raised is not fully showing at bottom line. Costs remain high, and...

Daniel Tabbush

Guzman Y Gomez IPO: Listing & Index Inclusion Timeline

Guzman y Gomez has raised A$335.1m in a primary +secondary offering. The stock starts trading today. Depending on the identity of pre-IPO...

Brian Freitas

Asia Real Estate Tracker (09-Apr-2026): Hong Kong's Link REIT sells Singapore mall for $196.3M.

Link REIT sold a Singapore shopping center for $196.3M, while Mapletree's fund faced a $58M loss; Firmus raised $505M, and Digital Realty expanded...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC, UMC, ASE and ChipMOS All Signal Long the ADR Spread

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

​Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

ASX - Listed Companies in Decline, Costs Soaring, Weaker Profit Can Be Dramatic

ASX is seeing listed companies in decline. Higher avg T/O and secondary capital raised is not fully showing at bottom line. Costs remain high, and...

Daniel Tabbush

Guzman Y Gomez IPO: Listing & Index Inclusion Timeline

Guzman y Gomez has raised A$335.1m in a primary +secondary offering. The stock starts trading today. Depending on the identity of pre-IPO...

Brian Freitas

Asia Real Estate Tracker (09-Apr-2026): Hong Kong's Link REIT sells Singapore mall for $196.3M.

Link REIT sold a Singapore shopping center for $196.3M, while Mapletree's fund faced a $58M loss; Firmus raised $505M, and Digital Realty expanded...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC, UMC, ASE and ChipMOS All Signal Long the ADR Spread

We analyze the premium and discount levels of dual-listed Taiwan companies, suggesting potential spread trading levels based on historical trends.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...