Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.</li>
<li>Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.</li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) , S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.
Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.


EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASX is seeing the number of listed companies in decline, although there are some positives with average daily turnover and secondary listings. </li>
<li>Higher costs are keeping positives from reaching the bottom line fully, with costs to revenue are now 40% in 1H24 where this was 29% in recent interim periods.</li>
<li>Capex plans for ASX and sticky inflationary figures on staff costs, the current year and following year net profit can see reasonable pressure.</li>
</ul>


ASX is seeing the number of listed companies in decline, although there are some positives with average daily turnover and secondary listings. 
Higher costs are keeping positives from reaching the bottom line fully, with costs to revenue are now 40% in 1H24 where this was 29% in recent interim periods.
Capex plans for ASX and sticky inflationary figures on staff costs, the current year and following year net profit can see reasonable pressure.


ASX - Listed Companies in Decline, Costs Soaring, Weaker Profit Can Be Dramatic

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guzman-y-gomez" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43656:1" rel="noopener">Guzman Y Gomez (0817833D AU)</a> has raised A$335.1m in a primary + secondary offering, valuing the company at A$2.23bn. The stock starts trading on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asx-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:552:1" rel="noopener">ASX Ltd (ASX AU)</a> today.</li>
<li>Just over 54% of the shares are escrowed which means there is a lot of stock that will be available for sale on listing day.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guzman-y-gomez" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43656:1" rel="noopener">Guzman Y Gomez (0817833D AU)</a> could be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index in September and there could be global index inclusions in November and December.</li>
</ul>



Guzman Y Gomez (0817833D AU) has raised A$335.1m in a primary + secondary offering, valuing the company at A$2.23bn. The stock starts trading on the ASX Ltd (ASX AU) today.
Just over 54% of the shares are escrowed which means there is a lot of stock that will be available for sale on listing day.

Guzman Y Gomez (0817833D AU) could be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index in September and there could be global index inclusions in November and December.


Guzman Y Gomez IPO: Listing & Index Inclusion Timeline

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36929:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US)</a> will stop trading on the NASDAQ after the close on 12 November and the sole primary listing will move to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Index trackers will need to sell a lot of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36929:1" rel="noopener">Light&amp;Wonder (LNW US)</a> at the close on 12 November. The buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light&amp;Wonder (LNW AU)</a> is a lot smaller.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/light-wonder-inc-7e7d040f-e811-4fb9-9710-796a39af299e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40171:1" rel="noopener">Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU)</a> trades at a much lower forward PE compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aristocrat-leisure-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10303:1" rel="noopener">Aristocrat Leisure (ALL AU)</a> and there could be a re-rating over the medium-term.</li>
</ul>



Light &amp; Wonder (LNW US) will stop trading on the NASDAQ after the close on 12 November and the sole primary listing will move to Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU). 
Index trackers will need to sell a lot of Light&amp;Wonder (LNW US) at the close on 12 November. The buying in Light&amp;Wonder (LNW AU) is a lot smaller.

Light &amp; Wonder (LNW AU) trades at a much lower forward PE compared to Aristocrat Leisure (ALL AU) and there could be a re-rating over the medium-term.


Light & Wonder (LNW AU): Index Implications of NASDAQ Delisting & ASX Primary Listing

DigiCo Infrastructure REIT / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digico-infrastructure-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44091:1" rel="noopener">DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU)</a> will be added to a global sector index at the close on 19 September while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healthco-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34150:1" rel="noopener">HealthCo REIT (HCW AU)</a> will be deleted.</li>
<li>Estimated passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digico-infrastructure-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44091:1" rel="noopener">DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU)</a> is US$32m while the passive selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healthco-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34150:1" rel="noopener">HealthCo REIT (HCW AU)</a> is estimated to be US$7m.</li>
<li>Shorts have increased in both stocks. There could be short covering in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digico-infrastructure-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44091:1" rel="noopener">DigiCo Infrastructure REIT</a> followed by new shorts, while shorts could look to cover <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healthco-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34150:1" rel="noopener">HealthCo REIT</a> as passives sell.</li>
</ul>



DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU) will be added to a global sector index at the close on 19 September while HealthCo REIT (HCW AU) will be deleted.
Estimated passive buying in DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU) is US$32m while the passive selling in HealthCo REIT (HCW AU) is estimated to be US$7m.
Shorts have increased in both stocks. There could be short covering in DigiCo Infrastructure REIT followed by new shorts, while shorts could look to cover HealthCo REIT as passives sell.


DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU) And HealthCo REIT (HCW AU): Passive Flows

Australia

ASX Ltd is a demutualized company which operates Australia's primary national stock exchange and equity derivatives market. The ASX operates markets for equities, derivatives, fixed-interest securities and capital-raising for unlisted companies using advanced computer systems for both trading and settlement.

Price Gauge
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ASX Ltd (ASX AU)

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

ASX - Listed Companies in Decline, Costs Soaring, Weaker Profit Can Be Dramatic

ASX is seeing listed companies in decline. Higher avg T/O and secondary capital raised is not fully showing at bottom line. Costs remain high, and...

Daniel Tabbush

Guzman Y Gomez IPO: Listing & Index Inclusion Timeline

Guzman y Gomez has raised A$335.1m in a primary +secondary offering. The stock starts trading today. Depending on the identity of pre-IPO...

Brian Freitas

Light & Wonder (LNW AU): Index Implications of NASDAQ Delisting & ASX Primary Listing

Light&Wonder stops trading on the NASDAQ after 12 Nov and becomes an ASX primary listing. Big passive selling in November followed by smaller...

Brian Freitas

DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU) And HealthCo REIT (HCW AU): Passive Flows

DigiCo Infrastructure REIT will be added to a global sector index at the close on 19 September while HealthCo REIT will be deleted. Shorts have...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

​Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

ASX - Listed Companies in Decline, Costs Soaring, Weaker Profit Can Be Dramatic

ASX is seeing listed companies in decline. Higher avg T/O and secondary capital raised is not fully showing at bottom line. Costs remain high, and...

Daniel Tabbush

Guzman Y Gomez IPO: Listing & Index Inclusion Timeline

Guzman y Gomez has raised A$335.1m in a primary +secondary offering. The stock starts trading today. Depending on the identity of pre-IPO...

Brian Freitas

Light & Wonder (LNW AU): Index Implications of NASDAQ Delisting & ASX Primary Listing

Light&Wonder stops trading on the NASDAQ after 12 Nov and becomes an ASX primary listing. Big passive selling in November followed by smaller...

Brian Freitas

DigiCo Infrastructure REIT (DGT AU) And HealthCo REIT (HCW AU): Passive Flows

DigiCo Infrastructure REIT will be added to a global sector index at the close on 19 September while HealthCo REIT will be deleted. Shorts have...

Brian Freitas

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...