Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Northern Star Resources / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> shareholders approving the acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>, we move to the phase of passive index flows. </li>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/generation-development-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14945:1" rel="noopener">Generation Development Group (GDG AU)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on 23 April to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a>. </li>
<li>There will be passive inflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> from some local and global index trackers due to the increase in the number of shares outstanding.</li>
</ul>


With De Grey Mining (DEG AU) shareholders approving the acquisition by Northern Star Resources (NST AU), we move to the phase of passive index flows. 
As expected, Generation Development Group (GDG AU) will be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on 23 April to replace De Grey Mining (DEG AU). 
There will be passive inflows for Northern Star Resources (NST AU) from some local and global index trackers due to the increase in the number of shares outstanding.


De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abacus-storage-king" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39857:1" rel="noopener">Abacus Storage King (ASK AU)</a> was demerged from Abacus Property Group in 2023 and the stock has traded in a range since listing.</li>
<li>Now, Ki Corp and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/public-storage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18193:1" rel="noopener">Public Storage (PSA US)</a> have made a conditional and non-binding proposal to take <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/abacus-storage-king" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39857:1" rel="noopener">Abacus Storage King (ASK AU)</a> private at A$1.47/share.</li>
<li>The offer is a 27% premium to the last close of the stock and is higher than the price that the stock has traded at since listing.</li>
</ul>



Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) was demerged from Abacus Property Group in 2023 and the stock has traded in a range since listing.
Now, Ki Corp and Public Storage (PSA US) have made a conditional and non-binding proposal to take Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) private at A$1.47/share.
The offer is a 27% premium to the last close of the stock and is higher than the price that the stock has traded at since listing.


Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) Gets an NBIO from Ki Corp & PSA

<ul>
<li>Given its portfolio mix, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/treasury-wine-estates-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:710:1" rel="noopener">Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU)</a> does not expect a material impact on its business from the blanket 10% tariff on all goods imported from Australia/New Zealand.</li>
<li>However, there is a high probability that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/treasury-wine-estates-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:710:1" rel="noopener">Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU)</a> will be deleted from a global index in May and that will lead to large selling from passives.</li>
<li>There has been an increase in short interest and an increase in other positioning. Trading will be volatile but there could be a downward bias over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


Given its portfolio mix, Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU) does not expect a material impact on its business from the blanket 10% tariff on all goods imported from Australia/New Zealand.
However, there is a high probability that Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU) will be deleted from a global index in May and that will lead to large selling from passives.
There has been an increase in short interest and an increase in other positioning. Trading will be volatile but there could be a downward bias over the next few weeks.


Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU): Passive Selling Adds to Tariff Woes

<ul>
<li>At the upcoming AGM, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22114:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto PLC</a> shareholders will vote on the company commencing a review on the benefits vs costs of Unification.</li>
<li>Palliser Capital has been pushing for Unification while the Rio Tinto Board has recommended that shareholders vote against Resolution 21/24 citing tax costs among other reasons.</li>
<li>If the Unification completes, S&amp;P/ASX trackers will need to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a> while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ftse-100-index-ukx" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22904:1" rel="noopener">UKX Index (UKX INDEX)</a> trackers will sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22114:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)</a>. Net positive.</li>
</ul>


At the upcoming AGM, Rio Tinto Ltd and Rio Tinto PLC shareholders will vote on the company commencing a review on the benefits vs costs of Unification.
Palliser Capital has been pushing for Unification while the Rio Tinto Board has recommended that shareholders vote against Resolution 21/24 citing tax costs among other reasons.
If the Unification completes, S&amp;P/ASX trackers will need to buy Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) while UKX Index (UKX INDEX) trackers will sell Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN). Net positive.


Rio Tinto (RIO AU/RIO LN): Unification Index Flows

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goodman-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:959:1" rel="noopener">Goodman Group (GMG AU)</a> is looking to raise around US$2.5bn to partly fund its data centre expansion plans.</li>
<li>Goodman’s shares have performed exceptionally well over the past year, driven by its pivot towards data centers.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Goodman Group (GMG AU) is looking to raise around US$2.5bn to partly fund its data centre expansion plans.
Goodman’s shares have performed exceptionally well over the past year, driven by its pivot towards data centers.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Goodman Group Placement - Large Deal, Doesn’t Seem Well Flagged, Not Particularly Exciting

Australia

ASX Ltd is a demutualized company which operates Australia's primary national stock exchange and equity derivatives market. The ASX operates markets for equities, derivatives, fixed-interest securities and capital-raising for unlisted companies using advanced computer systems for both trading and settlement.

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ASX Ltd (ASX AU)

De Grey Mining/Northern Star Resources: The Passive Flows

There will be passive buying in Northern Star Resources (NST) today at the close following the acquisition of De Grey Mining. The stock is up a lot...

Brian Freitas

Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) Gets an NBIO from Ki Corp & PSA

Ki Corp and PSA have made a conditional and non-binding proposal to take ASK AU private at A$1.47/share. That is a 26.7% premium to last and...

Brian Freitas

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU): Passive Selling Adds to Tariff Woes

Treasury Wine Estates does not expect tariffs to have a material impact. The stock has dropped, and shorts have jumped. TWE could be deleted from a...

Brian Freitas

Rio Tinto (RIO AU/RIO LN): Unification Index Flows

Palliser Capital is pushing for Unification of RIO AU/ RIO LN. We are still a long way away from possible completion. There will be big index flows...

Brian Freitas

Goodman Group Placement - Large Deal, Doesn’t Seem Well Flagged, Not Particularly Exciting

Goodman Group (GMG AU) is looking to raise around US$2.5bn to partly fund its data centre expansion plans. In this note, we talk about the deal...

Sumeet Singh

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52-week Range

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