Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Update on changes to and revisions of analysts' Best Ideas and Conviction Calls, as well as Model Portfolio compositions</li>
</ul>


Update on changes to and revisions of analysts' Best Ideas and Conviction Calls, as well as Model Portfolio compositions


Rudi's View: CBA, Life360, ResMed, Zip & More

<ul>
<li>A brief look at important company events and economic data releases next week</li>
</ul>


A brief look at important company events and economic data releases next week


Santos Ltd - Next Week At A Glance - 23-27 Jun 2025

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatland-gold-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44285:1" rel="noopener">Greatland Resources (GGP AU)</a> started trading on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asx-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:552:1" rel="noopener">ASX Ltd (ASX AU)</a> on 24 June after selling shares worth A$504m in a primary and secondary offering across Australia/UK.</li>
<li>Greatland has a full market cap of A$4.9bn and a high free float since <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatland-gold-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44285:1" rel="noopener">Greatland Gold Plc (GGP LN)</a> was listed on the AIM market of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/london-stock-exchange-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22034:1" rel="noopener">London Stock Exchange</a>.</li>
<li>Given the large market cap and high float, the stock could be added to multiple indices over the next few months.</li>
</ul>



Greatland Resources (GGP AU) started trading on the ASX Ltd (ASX AU) on 24 June after selling shares worth A$504m in a primary and secondary offering across Australia/UK.
Greatland has a full market cap of A$4.9bn and a high free float since Greatland Gold Plc (GGP LN) was listed on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange.
Given the large market cap and high float, the stock could be added to multiple indices over the next few months.


Greatland Resources (GGP AU): Big Index Inclusions for Recent IPO

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capricorn-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10775:1" rel="noopener">Capricorn Metals (CMM AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-re" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30999:1" rel="noopener">Vaneck Vectors Australian Re (MVR AU)</a> in June.</li>
<li>Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8% and a round-trip trade of A$49m.</li>
<li>There has been short covering in both adds over the last couple of years. While short interest is relatively smaller in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/capricorn-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10775:1" rel="noopener">Capricorn Metals</a>, it is much higher in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals</a>.</li>
</ul>



Capricorn Metals (CMM AU) and Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) will be added to the Vaneck Vectors Australian Re (MVR AU) in June.
Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8% and a round-trip trade of A$49m.
There has been short covering in both adds over the last couple of years. While short interest is relatively smaller in Capricorn Metals, it is much higher in Genesis Minerals.


MV Australia Resources Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Float & Capping Changes

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virgin-australia-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:814:1" rel="noopener">Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN AU)</a> is looking to raise A$685m in a secondary offering, valuing the company at A$2.27bn. The stock is expected to start trading on 24 June.</li>
<li>Bain Capital and management are escrowed on their shares till early 2026. There is no escrow for Qatar Airways, but they have indicated that their shareholding is strategic.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virgin-australia-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:814:1" rel="noopener">Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN AU)</a> could be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index in September and there could be global index inclusions in November and December.</li>
</ul>



Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN AU) is looking to raise A$685m in a secondary offering, valuing the company at A$2.27bn. The stock is expected to start trading on 24 June.
Bain Capital and management are escrowed on their shares till early 2026. There is no escrow for Qatar Airways, but they have indicated that their shareholding is strategic.

Virgin Australia Holdings (VGN AU) could be added to the S&amp;P/ASX 300 Index in September and there could be global index inclusions in November and December.


Virgin Australia (VGN AU): Touch & Go for Index Inclusion

Australia

ASX Ltd is a demutualized company which operates Australia's primary national stock exchange and equity derivatives market. The ASX operates markets for equities, derivatives, fixed-interest securities and capital-raising for unlisted companies using advanced computer systems for both trading and settlement.

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ASX Ltd (ASX AU)

Rudi's View: CBA, Life360, ResMed, Zip & More

Update on changes to and revisions of analysts' Best Ideas and Conviction Calls, as well as Model Portfolio compositions

FNArena

Santos Ltd - Next Week At A Glance - 23-27 Jun 2025

A brief look at important company events and economic data releases next week

FNArena

Greatland Resources (GGP AU): Big Index Inclusions for Recent IPO

Greatland Resources listed on the ASX after A$504m was raised via a primary+secondary issue in AU/UK. Free float market cap over A$3bn should...

Brian Freitas

MV Australia Resources Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Float & Capping Changes

The 2 adds and float/capping changes result in a one-way turnover of 8% and a round-trip trade of A$49m. Shorts have been covering both adds, but...

Brian Freitas

Virgin Australia (VGN AU): Touch & Go for Index Inclusion

Bain Capital is looking to raise A$685m, valuing Virgin Straya at A$2.3bn. Float is close to 30%. ASX300 inclusion in Sep is likely while global...

Brian Freitas

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