Value Investing

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Verizon Communications / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The highly exuberant equity markets in 2021 created the perfect environment for high quality value stocks in the coming years.</li>
<li>Significant investments made by Verizon are also weighing down on the company's valuation, while the dividend yield gravitates around 5%.</li>
<li>Through these investments, the company solidified its leading position and created a significant edge over its peers in the U.S.</li>
</ul>


The highly exuberant equity markets in 2021 created the perfect environment for high quality value stocks in the coming years.
Significant investments made by Verizon are also weighing down on the company's valuation, while the dividend yield gravitates around 5%.
Through these investments, the company solidified its leading position and created a significant edge over its peers in the U.S.


TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<div><p>We have been longtime fans of Netflix the product and Netflix’s management team can rightfully be described as visionary. They had the vision to have the public markets fund an experiment in business models that appears now set to breakeven on FCF in 2021. Over the course of the past year we have gone from being short Netflix to long Netflix beginning this past summer, which has played out...and now we return to the sidelines (but not interested in reshorting Netflix), as we think to get more bullish on Netflix from here requires greater clarity on future revenue optionality around gaming and consumer products. The increasingly saturated streaming space means Netflix will only be growing subs ~10% for the forseeable future, with most of that growth from lower priced regions, while it will be investing with a vengeance to drive more content, likely capping expectations for continued margin expansion and FCF.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  </p></div></div></div>

We have been longtime fans of Netflix the product and Netflix’s management team can rightfully be described as visionary. They had the vision to have the public markets fund an experiment in business models that appears now set to breakeven on FCF in 2021. Over the course of the past year we have gone from being short Netflix to long Netflix beginning this past summer, which has played out...and now we return to the sidelines (but not interested in reshorting Netflix), as we think to get more bullish on Netflix from here requires greater clarity on future revenue optionality around gaming and consumer products. The increasingly saturated streaming space means Netflix will only be growing subs ~10% for the forseeable future, with most of that growth from lower priced regions, while it will be investing with a vengeance to drive more content, likely capping expectations for continued margin expansion and FCF.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.  

<p>Comcast and Charter have had big pullbacks in the past month, leading to an attractive setup into earnings with valuations having compressed significantly over transitory weakness in broadband due to tough COVID comps and overstated competitive concerns. We'd be buyers of both. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Comcast and Charter have had big pullbacks in the past month, leading to an attractive setup into earnings with valuations having compressed significantly over transitory weakness in broadband due to tough COVID comps and overstated competitive concerns. We'd be buyers of both. Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

<ul>
<li>Poor capital allocation decisions made in the past do not mean that recent deals will produce the same results.</li>
<li>Fixing the past mistakes will not happen overnight, but recent developments are encouraging for the long-term future of AT&amp;T.</li>
<li>There are more challenges lying ahead for AT&amp;T's Communications division as competition intensifies.</li>
</ul>


Poor capital allocation decisions made in the past do not mean that recent deals will produce the same results.
Fixing the past mistakes will not happen overnight, but recent developments are encouraging for the long-term future of AT&amp;T.
There are more challenges lying ahead for AT&amp;T's Communications division as competition intensifies.


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>T-Mobile has nearly reached the target price from our previous report after yet another stellar result surpassing Wall Street expectations.</li><li>T-Mobile has consistently maintained its low pricing and its consumer-friendly policies for the past few years and is clearly leading the 5G deployment race over rivals, Verizon and AT&T.</li><li>We give the stock a ‘Hold’ rating and a revised target price after its recent runup.</li></ul>

T-Mobile has nearly reached the target price from our previous report after yet another stellar result surpassing Wall Street expectations.T-Mobile has consistently maintained its low pricing and its consumer-friendly policies for the past few years and is clearly leading the 5G deployment race over rivals, Verizon and AT&T.We give the stock a ‘Hold’ rating and a revised target price after its recent runup.

United States

AT&T Inc. is a communications holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries and affiliates, provides local and long-distance phone service, wireless and data communications, Internet access and messaging, IP-based and satellite television, security services, telecommunications equipment, and directory advertising and publishing.

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AT&T (T US)

Verizon: It's Darkest Before The Dawn

The highly exuberant equity markets in 2021 created the perfect environment for high quality value stocks in the coming years. Significant...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

Netflix 3Q21: Saved By Squid Game

Over the course of the past year we have gone from being short Netflix to long Netflix...and now we return to the sidelines. We need greater...

Aaron Gabin

US Cable: Good Entry Point

Comcast and Charter have had big pullbacks in the past month, leading to an attractive setup with valuations having compressed due to tough COVID...

Aaron Gabin

AT&T Rhetoric Suffers From A Major Bias

Poor capital allocation decisions made in the past do not mean that recent deals will produce the same results. Fixing the past mistakes will not...

Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

T-Mobile - Invt Thesis

T-Mobile has nearly reached the target price from our previous report after yet another stellar result surpassing Wall Street...

Baptista Research

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