External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Atour Lifestyle Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>4Q23 results were a slight beat but the FY24E guidance is slightly disappointed.</li><li>However, we are not that pessimistic because: 1) sequential improvement is likely (high base in 1H), 2) OCC rate is still the best among its peers implying further market share gains, and 3) PMI has started to improve in Mar 2024.</li><li>And a 16x FY24E P/E is not demanding at all given a 26%/ 41% 3-year sales/ net profit att. CAGR.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

4Q23 results were a slight beat but the FY24E guidance is slightly disappointed.However, we are not that pessimistic because: 1) sequential improvement is likely (high base in 1H), 2) OCC rate is still the best among its peers implying further market share gains, and 3) PMI has started to improve in Mar 2024.And a 16x FY24E P/E is not demanding at all given a 26%/ 41% 3-year sales/ net profit att. CAGR.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US) - Prudent Guidance but QoQ Recovery Is Likely

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>Chinese outbound travel demand continued to recover nicely in February</li>
<li>Major airlines' decision to slow capacity rebuild now looks very prudent</li>
<li>But the airlines have underperformed, surprisingly; Buy Trip.com below US$43</li>
</ul>


Chinese outbound travel demand continued to recover nicely in February
Major airlines' decision to slow capacity rebuild now looks very prudent
But the airlines have underperformed, surprisingly; Buy Trip.com below US$43


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Decision to Slow Capacity Rebuild in Mid-2023 Now Looks Prudent

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

<ul>
<li>Atour reported C4Q23 revenue vs. our estimate/consensus by 18%/21% and guided a robust 30% yoy revenue growth for 2024, outpacing the consensus by 12% and our estimate by 7%</li>
<li>C4Q23 operating margin decline was due to one-off leased hotel impairment and seasonality in retail marketing. We foresee stable margin in 2024;</li>
<li>We maintain our BUY rating and keep our TP at US$37.5, implying a 2024 P/E of 34x, vs. currently trading at 16x.</li>
</ul>


Atour reported C4Q23 revenue vs. our estimate/consensus by 18%/21% and guided a robust 30% yoy revenue growth for 2024, outpacing the consensus by 12% and our estimate by 7%
C4Q23 operating margin decline was due to one-off leased hotel impairment and seasonality in retail marketing. We foresee stable margin in 2024;
We maintain our BUY rating and keep our TP at US$37.5, implying a 2024 P/E of 34x, vs. currently trading at 16x.


[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US,BUY,TP US$37.5) Review]:Still a Quality Growth Story in the Next Two Years

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>1810 HK: Multiple reports show that Xiaomi‘s new car reservations very popular, but is it effective to skip professional test drives and directly market to the car buyers?（/）</li>
<li>ATAT: Atour tests a 50% discount promotion on Sunday, bodes well for occupancy rates and revenue.(+)</li>
<li>LI/1810 HK/XPEV/NIO/1211 HK:The Cyberspace Administration of China publishes regulations on cross-border data flows, which may clear the way for Tesla FSD to enter China（////-/-//）</li>
</ul>


1810 HK: Multiple reports show that Xiaomi‘s new car reservations very popular, but is it effective to skip professional test drives and directly market to the car buyers?（/）
ATAT: Atour tests a 50% discount promotion on Sunday, bodes well for occupancy rates and revenue.(+)
LI/1810 HK/XPEV/NIO/1211 HK:The Cyberspace Administration of China publishes regulations on cross-border data flows, which may clear the way for Tesla FSD to enter China（////-/-//）


[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/ATAT/LI/XPEV/NIO/1211 HK

<ul>
<li>300274SZ/300750SZ/LI/NIO/1211HK: Jan+Feb new energy export data show that wind power is picking up, and inverters has reached inflection point, while lithium batteries and electric vehicles are exchanging prices for volume(+/-/-/-/-)</li>
<li>Huazhu/Atour: Huazhu guided conservative RevPAR outlook for 2024, citing weak business travel demand.（-）</li>
<li>LI/1211 HK/XPEV/NIO: In 2024’s 11th week, BYD continued to accelerate while fell back, yet the overall acceleration of new energy vehicles bodes well for the whole year (/)</li>
</ul>


300274SZ/300750SZ/LI/NIO/1211HK: Jan+Feb new energy export data show that wind power is picking up, and inverters has reached inflection point, while lithium batteries and electric vehicles are exchanging prices for volume(+/-/-/-/-)
Huazhu/Atour: Huazhu guided conservative RevPAR outlook for 2024, citing weak business travel demand.（-）
LI/1211 HK/XPEV/NIO: In 2024’s 11th week, BYD continued to accelerate while fell back, yet the overall acceleration of new energy vehicles bodes well for the whole year (/)


[Blue Lotus Daily]300274SZ/300750SZ/LI/NIO/1211HK/Huazhu/Atour/XPEV/9926 HK

China

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, owns and manages midscale hotel chain through offline and online channels, including mobile application and weixin-wechat mini program. Atour Lifestyle Holdings serves customers in China.

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Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US)

Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US) - Prudent Guidance but QoQ Recovery Is Likely

Management mentioned that the RevPAR recovery so far in 2024 has been lower vs last year (CMBI est. 114%), however, this was actually an...

CMB International

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Decision to Slow Capacity Rebuild in Mid-2023 Now Looks Prudent

February outbound travel demand continued to recovery nicely, and the major airlines' decision to slow their capacity rebuild in H223 now appears...

Tracking Traffic

[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US,BUY,TP US$37.5) Review]:Still a Quality Growth Story in the Next Two Years

Atour exceeded revenue expectations in C4Q23 and projects strong growth in 2024, despite a decline in operating margin. Analysts maintain a BUY...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/ATAT/LI/XPEV/NIO/1211 HK

Li lowered the first quarter and full-year delivery targets.The Cyberspace Administration of China publishes regulations on cross-border data...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]300274SZ/300750SZ/LI/NIO/1211HK/Huazhu/Atour/XPEV/9926 HK

New energy export data shows wind power growth,inverters at inflection point.BYD accelerates in 11th week,positive outlook for new energy vehicles...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US) - Prudent Guidance but QoQ Recovery Is Likely

Management mentioned that the RevPAR recovery so far in 2024 has been lower vs last year (CMBI est. 114%), however, this was actually an...

CMB International

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Decision to Slow Capacity Rebuild in Mid-2023 Now Looks Prudent

February outbound travel demand continued to recovery nicely, and the major airlines' decision to slow their capacity rebuild in H223 now appears...

Tracking Traffic

[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US,BUY,TP US$37.5) Review]:Still a Quality Growth Story in the Next Two Years

​Atour exceeded revenue expectations in C4Q23 and projects strong growth in 2024, despite a decline in operating margin. Analysts maintain a BUY...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/ATAT/LI/XPEV/NIO/1211 HK

Li lowered the first quarter and full-year delivery targets.The Cyberspace Administration of China publishes regulations on cross-border data...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Daily]300274SZ/300750SZ/LI/NIO/1211HK/Huazhu/Atour/XPEV/9926 HK

​New energy export data shows wind power growth,inverters at inflection point.BYD accelerates in 11th week,positive outlook for new energy vehicles...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Atour exceeded revenue expectations in C4Q23 and projects strong growth in 2024, despite a decline in operating margin. Analysts maintain a BUY...

New energy export data shows wind power growth,inverters at inflection point.BYD accelerates in 11th week,positive outlook for new energy vehicles...