Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>TSLA/XPEV/NIO/LI/BIDU: Tesla FSD expected to launch in the Chinese market</li>
<li>1211.HK/600104.CH/601633.CH: Japanese auto makers cut prices in Thailand to fend off Chinese EV</li>
<li>XPEV/NIO/BIDU/BYD: BYD cut vehicle prices again to boost year-end sales</li>
</ul>


TSLA/XPEV/NIO/LI/BIDU: Tesla FSD expected to launch in the Chinese market
1211.HK/600104.CH/601633.CH: Japanese auto makers cut prices in Thailand to fend off Chinese EV
XPEV/NIO/BIDU/BYD: BYD cut vehicle prices again to boost year-end sales


[Blue Lotus Daily]: TSLA/XPEV/NIO/LI/BIDU/1211.HK/600104.CH/601633.CH/ATAT/BEKE

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In October, the sluggish recovery in outbound tourism demand continued</li>
<li>Outbound capacity growth also timid; but domestic recovery is mostly complete</li>
<li>As growth stock, Trip.com's disappointed; maybe it can attract value investors?</li>
</ul>


In October, the sluggish recovery in outbound tourism demand continued
Outbound capacity growth also timid; but domestic recovery is mostly complete
As growth stock, Trip.com's disappointed; maybe it can attract value investors?


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Recovery Still Sluggish | Trip.com as Value Name | (November 2023)

<ul>
<li>Trip.com reported strong Q3 earnings, reflecting 2023's ongoing tourism revival</li>
<li>Net Income beat expectations, and company made progress on expense control</li>
<li>But we don't see "game-changing" numbers in Trip.com's latest earnings release</li>
</ul>


Trip.com reported strong Q3 earnings, reflecting 2023's ongoing tourism revival
Net Income beat expectations, and company made progress on expense control
But we don't see "game-changing" numbers in Trip.com's latest earnings release


Trip.com Q3 Quick Take: Net Inc > Consensus | Progress on Expenses | But Not a Game-Changer

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Atour Lifestyle Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>3Q23 results were a beat and FY23E guidance was raised (mostly about retail).</li><li>While we are conservative about the Hotel sector in 4Q23E and 1Q24E, we still think Atour could outperform, thanks to its excellent price to quality.</li><li>Moreover, in the long run, we are fairly excited by its product expansions (e.g. Atour Light 3.0 and Atour 4.0, which are able to capture more new customers outside of their previous price range) and room for growth and consolidation in China</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

3Q23 results were a beat and FY23E guidance was raised (mostly about retail).While we are conservative about the Hotel sector in 4Q23E and 1Q24E, we still think Atour could outperform, thanks to its excellent price to quality.Moreover, in the long run, we are fairly excited by its product expansions (e.g. Atour Light 3.0 and Atour 4.0, which are able to capture more new customers outside of their previous price range) and room for growth and consolidation in ChinaContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US) – Guidance Raised and We Stay Positive in LT

<ul>
<li>Atour reported 3Q23 revenue 6.4%/17.1% higher than our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP NI 5.5%/9.1% higher than our estimate/consensus.</li>
<li>We expect Atour 4Q23/2023 RevPAR recovered to 107%/114% of 2019 level, and revenue to increase 104%/96% YoY respectively. </li>
<li>We maintain the stock as BUY rating, and raised TP by US$1 to US$37.5, reflecting the rapid growth of retail product sales. </li>
</ul>


Atour reported 3Q23 revenue 6.4%/17.1% higher than our estimate/consensus, non-GAAP NI 5.5%/9.1% higher than our estimate/consensus.
We expect Atour 4Q23/2023 RevPAR recovered to 107%/114% of 2019 level, and revenue to increase 104%/96% YoY respectively. 
We maintain the stock as BUY rating, and raised TP by US$1 to US$37.5, reflecting the rapid growth of retail product sales. 


[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37.5) Target Price Change]: Brand Value Brings Premium Sales

China

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Limited operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, owns and manages midscale hotel chain through offline and online channels, including mobile application and weixin-wechat mini program. Atour Lifestyle Holdings serves customers in China.

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Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US)

[Blue Lotus Daily]: TSLA/XPEV/NIO/LI/BIDU/1211.HK/600104.CH/601633.CH/ATAT/BEKE

Tesla is set to launch Full Self-Driving (FSD) in China, Japanese auto makers reduce prices in Thailand to compete with Chinese EVs, and BYD...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Recovery Still Sluggish | Trip.com as Value Name | (November 2023)

October outbound demand increased vs September but remains below pre-pandemic levels. We've long viewed Trip.com negatively as a growth stock, but...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q3 Quick Take: Net Inc > Consensus | Progress on Expenses | But Not a Game-Changer

Trip.com reported Q323 results that featured strong top-line growth, sharp Y/Y improvement in margins, and progress on cost control. But its Q323...

Tracking Traffic

Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US) – Guidance Raised and We Stay Positive in LT

While we are conservative about the Hotel sector in 4Q23E and 1Q24E, we still think Atour could outperform, thanks to its excellent price to quality.

CMB International

[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37.5) Target Price Change]: Brand Value Brings Premium Sales

Atour's 3Q23 revenue and non-GAAP NI exceeded estimates, and we predict strong recovery in RevPAR and revenue for 4Q23 and 2023. We maintain a BUY...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily]: TSLA/XPEV/NIO/LI/BIDU/1211.HK/600104.CH/601633.CH/ATAT/BEKE

​Tesla is set to launch Full Self-Driving (FSD) in China, Japanese auto makers reduce prices in Thailand to compete with Chinese EVs, and BYD...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Recovery Still Sluggish | Trip.com as Value Name | (November 2023)

October outbound demand increased vs September but remains below pre-pandemic levels. We've long viewed Trip.com negatively as a growth stock, but...

Tracking Traffic

Trip.com Q3 Quick Take: Net Inc > Consensus | Progress on Expenses | But Not a Game-Changer

Trip.com reported Q323 results that featured strong top-line growth, sharp Y/Y improvement in margins, and progress on cost control. But its Q323...

Tracking Traffic

Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US) – Guidance Raised and We Stay Positive in LT

While we are conservative about the Hotel sector in 4Q23E and 1Q24E, we still think Atour could outperform, thanks to its excellent price to quality.

CMB International

[Atour Lifestyle (ATAT US, BUY, TP US$37.5) Target Price Change]: Brand Value Brings Premium Sales

Atour's 3Q23 revenue and non-GAAP NI exceeded estimates, and we predict strong recovery in RevPAR and revenue for 4Q23 and 2023. We maintain a BUY...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Tesla is set to launch Full Self-Driving (FSD) in China, Japanese auto makers reduce prices in Thailand to compete with Chinese EVs, and BYD...