Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

NSE Nifty Bank Index / Equity Derivatives

NSE Nifty Bank Index (NSEBANK INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index</a> implied volatility could be seen as rich when compared to its own history and in comparison to realized volatility.</li>
<li>Putting implied volatility into context with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Bank Index</a> 200 day moving average will lead to a different conclusion. Selling volatility might not be the opportunity it seems.</li>
<li>This Insight provides a quantitative indication at which level implied volatility can be assessed as rich.</li>
</ul>



NSE Nifty Bank Index implied volatility could be seen as rich when compared to its own history and in comparison to realized volatility.
Putting implied volatility into context with the NSE Nifty Bank Index 200 day moving average will lead to a different conclusion. Selling volatility might not be the opportunity it seems.
This Insight provides a quantitative indication at which level implied volatility can be assessed as rich.


EQD | NSE Nifty Bank Index - Implied Volatility Not (Yet) Rich Enough.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>AU Small Finance Bank (AUBANK) reported 3QFY25 PAT of INR5.3b (8% beat), led by controlled opex, though provisioning expenses were high.</li><li>NII grew 2.4% QoQ to INR20.2b (in line), while NIMs declined by 23bp QoQ on higher proportion of investments book, adverse loan mix and higher CoF.</li><li>PPoP grew 6.5% QoQ to INR12.1b (8% beat) as opex was 8% lower vs.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AU Small Finance Bank (AUBANK) reported 3QFY25 PAT of INR5.3b (8% beat), led by controlled opex, though provisioning expenses were high.NII grew 2.4% QoQ to INR20.2b (in line), while NIMs declined by 23bp QoQ on higher proportion of investments book, adverse loan mix and higher CoF.PPoP grew 6.5% QoQ to INR12.1b (8% beat) as opex was 8% lower vs.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AU Small Finance Bank - Cost Control Drives Earnings Beat; Asset Quality Deteriorates Slightly

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Emkay Global Financial Services Limited

Emkay

Emkay Global Financial Services Limited

Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. is a leader in the financial services sector, actively creating wealth for our clients for over two decades. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>AU SFB logged a muted performance with a 5% miss on PAT at Rs5.3bn/RoA at 1.5%, mainly on lower other income and elevated provisions owing to ongoing stress in unsecured loans (MFI, Cards, PL) and seasonality impact on the agri and wheels book.</li><li>The management indicated that 20% of the MFI portfolio (MFI book is 7% of overall loans) will be impacted by the MFIN 2.0 guidelines, and thus expects higher slippages/credit cost in Q4.</li><li>The bank has taken corrective measures in the Card business, but stress could remain elevated in 4Q.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AU SFB logged a muted performance with a 5% miss on PAT at Rs5.3bn/RoA at 1.5%, mainly on lower other income and elevated provisions owing to ongoing stress in unsecured loans (MFI, Cards, PL) and seasonality impact on the agri and wheels book.The management indicated that 20% of the MFI portfolio (MFI book is 7% of overall loans) will be impacted by the MFIN 2.0 guidelines, and thus expects higher slippages/credit cost in Q4.The bank has taken corrective measures in the Card business, but stress could remain elevated in 4Q.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AU Small Finance Bank - Stress to Persist in near Term, but Eyes Glued on 1.6% RoA

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Near-term asset quality challenges persist; Stability likely from Q2FY26: AUSFB’s asset quality deterioration was primarily owing to elevated slippages mainly from the unsecured portfolio (microfinance, credit cards and PL) and the impact of seasonality in the wheels and agribusiness.</li><li>In the credit card portfolio, slippages remain elevated due to lapses in digital underwriting without adequate guards.</li><li>However, the bank has taken corrective measures by (i) Reducing credit lines, (ii) Undertaking a detailed evaluation of the existing customer base and taking appropriate pre-emptive actions on potentially delinquent customers, (iii) Blocking certain misused categories of merchants, and (iv) Strengthening daily transaction monitoring to identify and restrict misusing customers and merchants.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Near-term asset quality challenges persist; Stability likely from Q2FY26: AUSFB’s asset quality deterioration was primarily owing to elevated slippages mainly from the unsecured portfolio (microfinance, credit cards and PL) and the impact of seasonality in the wheels and agribusiness.In the credit card portfolio, slippages remain elevated due to lapses in digital underwriting without adequate guards.However, the bank has taken corrective measures by (i) Reducing credit lines, (ii) Undertaking a detailed evaluation of the existing customer base and taking appropriate pre-emptive actions on potentially delinquent customers, (iii) Blocking certain misused categories of merchants, and (iv) Strengthening daily transaction monitoring to identify and restrict misusing customers and merchants.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

AU Small Finance Bank Ltd - Operationally Healthy, Asset Quality Deteriorates!

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we examine the key challenges facing the sector and discuss potential paths forward for MFI-focused lenders. </li>
<li>Companies in this sector have seen sharp declines, with stocks down 45% from their 52-week highs and showing negative returns of -37% YTD.</li>
<li>Considering the Industry data, it would be fair to conclude that the pain in the industry is likely to persist.  CREDAG, SPANDANA, AUBANK, and IIB are key names to watch.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we examine the key challenges facing the sector and discuss potential paths forward for MFI-focused lenders. 
Companies in this sector have seen sharp declines, with stocks down 45% from their 52-week highs and showing negative returns of -37% YTD.
Considering the Industry data, it would be fair to conclude that the pain in the industry is likely to persist.  CREDAG, SPANDANA, AUBANK, and IIB are key names to watch.


Navigating MFI Consumer Credit Exuberance - A Rocky Road Head

India

AU Small Finance Bank Limited is an Indian scheduled commercial small finance bank. It offers a diverse range of products including savings accounts, current accounts, fixed deposits, loans (vehicle, MSME, housing, personal, gold, agriculture), debit and credit cards, and insurance. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Jaipur, Rajasthan, India.

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AU Small Finance Bank (AUBANK IN)

EQD | NSE Nifty Bank Index - Implied Volatility Not (Yet) Rich Enough.

Implied volatility for the NSE Nifty Bank Index may seem high historically, but seen in context with the index's 200 day moving average suggests...

Gaudenz Schneider

AU Small Finance Bank - Cost Control Drives Earnings Beat; Asset Quality Deteriorates Slightly

AU Small Finance Bank (AUBANK) reported 3QFY25 PAT of INR5.3b (8% beat), led by controlled opex, though provisioning expenses were high.

Motilal Oswal

AU Small Finance Bank - Stress to Persist in near Term, but Eyes Glued on 1.6% RoA

U SFB logged a muted performance with a 5% miss on PAT at Rs5.3bn/RoA at 1.5%, mainly on lower other income and elevated provisions owing to...

Emkay

AU Small Finance Bank Ltd - Operationally Healthy, Asset Quality Deteriorates!

AUSFB’s asset quality deterioration was primarily owing to elevated slippages mainly from the unsecured portfolio (microfinance, credit cards and PL)

Axis Direct

Navigating MFI Consumer Credit Exuberance - A Rocky Road Head

The Pain in Consumer Leverage is now showing up in the earnings. "CreditAccess Grameen has revised its guidance for FY25 for the second time in...

Pranav Bhavsar

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EQD | NSE Nifty Bank Index - Implied Volatility Not (Yet) Rich Enough.

​Implied volatility for the NSE Nifty Bank Index may seem high historically, but seen in context with the index's 200 day moving average suggests...

Gaudenz Schneider

AU Small Finance Bank - Cost Control Drives Earnings Beat; Asset Quality Deteriorates Slightly

AU Small Finance Bank (AUBANK) reported 3QFY25 PAT of INR5.3b (8% beat), led by controlled opex, though provisioning expenses were high.

Motilal Oswal

AU Small Finance Bank - Stress to Persist in near Term, but Eyes Glued on 1.6% RoA

U SFB logged a muted performance with a 5% miss on PAT at Rs5.3bn/RoA at 1.5%, mainly on lower other income and elevated provisions owing to...

Emkay

AU Small Finance Bank Ltd - Operationally Healthy, Asset Quality Deteriorates!

AUSFB’s asset quality deterioration was primarily owing to elevated slippages mainly from the unsecured portfolio (microfinance, credit cards and PL)

Axis Direct

Navigating MFI Consumer Credit Exuberance - A Rocky Road Head

The Pain in Consumer Leverage is now showing up in the earnings. "CreditAccess Grameen has revised its guidance for FY25 for the second time in...

Pranav Bhavsar

Implied volatility for the NSE Nifty Bank Index may seem high historically, but seen in context with the index's 200 day moving average suggests...