New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

Auckland International Airport / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Auckland Airport's regulatory environment is currently experiencing significant uncertainty, with potential government changes via the Commerce Act review that may negatively impact AIA.</li><li>The possibility of a hybrid till and its financial implications are explored, with a 10% cross-subsidisation of commercial revenue potentially lowering AIA's implied valuation by 11%.</li><li>While the regulatory noise is expected to continue in the near term, the chances of a hybrid till being implemented are considered very low at this stage.</li></ul>

Auckland Airport's regulatory environment is currently experiencing significant uncertainty, with potential government changes via the Commerce Act review that may negatively impact AIA.The possibility of a hybrid till and its financial implications are explored, with a 10% cross-subsidisation of commercial revenue potentially lowering AIA's implied valuation by 11%.While the regulatory noise is expected to continue in the near term, the chances of a hybrid till being implemented are considered very low at this stage.

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 2nd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD26.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Westpac, Nextdc, Goodman, Asx, South32.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 2nd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD26.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Westpac, Nextdc, Goodman, Asx, South32.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 2nd): Westpac, Nextdc, Goodman, Asx, South32

<ul><li>Regulatory risk for Auckland Airport has increased due to a Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment review of the Commerce Act and stakeholder engagement on the effectiveness of the current Information Disclosure regime for airports.</li><li>The worst-case scenario for Auckland Airport is a potential change to its dual till regulatory model, which could reduce robust returns from its commercial operations.</li><li>Despite the increased regulatory risk, material changes to the current Information Disclosure regime are considered unlikely, but Auckland Airport's current valuation multiples do not account for potential negative regulatory outcomes.</li></ul>

Regulatory risk for Auckland Airport has increased due to a Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment review of the Commerce Act and stakeholder engagement on the effectiveness of the current Information Disclosure regime for airports.The worst-case scenario for Auckland Airport is a potential change to its dual till regulatory model, which could reduce robust returns from its commercial operations.Despite the increased regulatory risk, material changes to the current Information Disclosure regime are considered unlikely, but Auckland Airport's current valuation multiples do not account for potential negative regulatory outcomes.

Auckland Airport - Regulatory Risk Reappears

<ul><li>Auckland Airport (AIA) is downgraded to UNDERPERFORM from NEUTRAL due to Commerce Commission's review of PSE4 pricing period.</li><li>Key negatives include targeted excess profits, ignored non-priced services, and potential regulatory scrutiny.</li><li>Market consensus earnings expectations are optimistic and need moderation; AIA is not considered cheap at the current trading multiples.</li></ul>

Auckland Airport (AIA) is downgraded to UNDERPERFORM from NEUTRAL due to Commerce Commission's review of PSE4 pricing period.Key negatives include targeted excess profits, ignored non-priced services, and potential regulatory scrutiny.Market consensus earnings expectations are optimistic and need moderation; AIA is not considered cheap at the current trading multiples.

Auckland Airport Another ComCom Speeding Ticket

<ul><li>Auckland Airport has selected Lagardère as its new single duty-free concessionaire for an eight-year contract following a global tender process.</li><li>AIA will assume more risk under the new contract, sharing passenger risk with Lagardère, with minimum annual guarantees remaining a feature.</li><li>AIA aims to return its retail income per total passenger to FY19 levels but anticipates a gap until FY27 due to refurbishment disruptions.</li></ul>

Auckland Airport has selected Lagardère as its new single duty-free concessionaire for an eight-year contract following a global tender process.AIA will assume more risk under the new contract, sharing passenger risk with Lagardère, with minimum annual guarantees remaining a feature.AIA aims to return its retail income per total passenger to FY19 levels but anticipates a gap until FY27 due to refurbishment disruptions.

Auckland Airport (AIA.NZ) - Duty Free Tender Concluded

New Zealand

Auckland International Airport Limited owns and operates the Auckland International Airport.  The Airport includes a single runway, an international terminal and two domestic terminals.  The Airport also has commercial facilities which includes airfreight operations, car rental services, commercial banking center and office buildings.

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Auckland International Airport (AIA AU)

Auckland Airport Hybrid Till—What If?

Auckland Airport's regulatory environment is currently experiencing significant uncertainty, with potential government changes via the Commerce Act...

Forsyth Barr

ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 2nd): Westpac, Nextdc, Goodman, Asx, South32

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Westpac, Nextdc, Goodman, Asx, South32.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Auckland Airport - Regulatory Risk Reappears

The worst-case scenario for Auckland Airport is a potential change to its dual till regulatory model, which could reduce robust returns from its...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport Another ComCom Speeding Ticket

Auckland Airport (AIA) is downgraded to UNDERPERFORM from NEUTRAL due to Commerce Commission's review of PSE4 pricing period. Key negatives...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport (AIA.NZ) - Duty Free Tender Concluded

Auckland Airport has selected Lagardère as its new single duty-free concessionaire for an eight-year contract following a global tender...

Forsyth Barr

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