New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Auckland Airport's (AIA) NZ$1.4bn equity raise to support its capital development programme suggests a conservative approach to managing its balance sheet.</li><li>The additional equity should mean AIA navigates the bulge of capital expansion over the medium term, without getting close to testing its key S&amp;P A- credit rating of funds from operations (FFO) to debt threshold, even with the prospect of aeronautical price cuts in FY26 and FY27.</li><li>The latter stems from the current Commerce Commission (ComCom) PSE4 (FY23–FY27) pricing review. </li></ul>

Auckland Airport's (AIA) NZ$1.4bn equity raise to support its capital development programme suggests a conservative approach to managing its balance sheet.The additional equity should mean AIA navigates the bulge of capital expansion over the medium term, without getting close to testing its key S&amp;P A- credit rating of funds from operations (FFO) to debt threshold, even with the prospect of aeronautical price cuts in FY26 and FY27.The latter stems from the current Commerce Commission (ComCom) PSE4 (FY23–FY27) pricing review. 

Auckland Airport - Funding Terminal Value

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auckland-intl-airport-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:597:1" rel="noopener">Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)</a> has announced an underwritten placement of NZ$1.2bn and a non-underwritten retail offer to raise NZ$200m.</li>
<li>The stock is trading near the low end of its range over the last few years and the 7% discount from the last close should attract investor interest.</li>
<li>We estimate passive trackers will need to buy around 13.5% of the placement shares coinciding with the settlement date on 20 September.</li>
</ul>



Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ) has announced an underwritten placement of NZ$1.2bn and a non-underwritten retail offer to raise NZ$200m.
The stock is trading near the low end of its range over the last few years and the 7% discount from the last close should attract investor interest.
We estimate passive trackers will need to buy around 13.5% of the placement shares coinciding with the settlement date on 20 September.


Auckland Airport (AIA NZ) Placement: Index Impact

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Auckland Intl Airport / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auckland-intl-airport-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:597:1" rel="noopener">Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)</a> is looking to raise NZ$1.4bn (US$863m) in its primary follow-on offering. The offering includes a NZ$1.2bn underwritten placement, together with a NZ$200m non-underwritten retail offer.</li>
<li>The underwritten placement alone is a large one for the stock to digest at 168 days of three month ADV.</li>
<li>In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ) is looking to raise NZ$1.4bn (US$863m) in its primary follow-on offering. The offering includes a NZ$1.2bn underwritten placement, together with a NZ$200m non-underwritten retail offer.
The underwritten placement alone is a large one for the stock to digest at 168 days of three month ADV.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.


Auckland Airport Placement - Large NZ$1.4bn Raising, with ACC’s Overhang to Contend With

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

<ul>
<li>Almost exactly a year ago, Auckland City Council (ACC) raised around US$320m via selling around 7% of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auckland-intl-airport-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:597:1" rel="noopener">Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)</a>.</li>
<li>ACC still has an 11% stake left, which it now plans to transfer to a future fund, which will be free to sell the shares</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the possible placement and other deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Almost exactly a year ago, Auckland City Council (ACC) raised around US$320m via selling around 7% of its stake in Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ).
ACC still has an 11% stake left, which it now plans to transfer to a future fund, which will be free to sell the shares
In this note, we will talk about the possible placement and other deal dynamics.


Auckland Airport Possible Placement - Getting Closer to a US$800m Cleanup

<ul><li>We upgrade our rating on ​​​​​​​Auckland Airport (AIA) to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM due to: (1) earnings upgrades following the FY24 result, (2) reduced regulatory risk following the Commerce Commission's (ComCom) recent interim report on AIA's aeronautical pricing (PSE4), and (3) recent relative share price underperformance, despite softening bond rates. AIA's FY24 result was broadly in line with market expectations, though first time FY25 earnings guidance leads us to materially lift our NPAT estimates, despite only marginal increases in operating income.</li><li>The pax recovery may be lagging, but the earnings recovery remains in full swing. Both FY24 EBITDA and NPAT are above FY19 levels.</li><li>AIA currently trades at ~20x one year forward EV/EBITDA and ~36x PE. Its valuation premium, relative to the domestic market and other infrastructure players, remains above historical levels (justified by a higher RAB and valuation multiple, now applicable for its aeronautical assets), but has retreated to levels that we are more comfortable with.  </li></ul>

We upgrade our rating on ​​​​​​​Auckland Airport (AIA) to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM due to: (1) earnings upgrades following the FY24 result, (2) reduced regulatory risk following the Commerce Commission's (ComCom) recent interim report on AIA's aeronautical pricing (PSE4), and (3) recent relative share price underperformance, despite softening bond rates. AIA's FY24 result was broadly in line with market expectations, though first time FY25 earnings guidance leads us to materially lift our NPAT estimates, despite only marginal increases in operating income.The pax recovery may be lagging, but the earnings recovery remains in full swing. Both FY24 EBITDA and NPAT are above FY19 levels.AIA currently trades at ~20x one year forward EV/EBITDA and ~36x PE. Its valuation premium, relative to the domestic market and other infrastructure players, remains above historical levels (justified by a higher RAB and valuation multiple, now applicable for its aeronautical assets), but has retreated to levels that we are more comfortable with.  

Auckland Airport - FY24 — Capex Has Taken-Off

New Zealand

Auckland International Airport Limited owns and operates the Auckland International Airport.  The Airport includes a single runway, an international terminal and two domestic terminals.  The Airport also has commercial facilities which includes airfreight operations, car rental services, commercial banking center and office buildings.

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Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)

Auckland Airport - Funding Terminal Value

Auckland Airport's (AIA) NZ$1.4bn equity raise to support its capital development programme suggests a conservative approach to managing its...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport (AIA NZ) Placement: Index Impact

Auckland Intl Airport has announced an underwritten placement of NZ$1.2bn and a non-underwritten retail offer to raise NZ$200m. We estimate passive...

Brian Freitas

Auckland Airport Placement - Large NZ$1.4bn Raising, with ACC’s Overhang to Contend With

Auckland Intl Airport is looking to raise NZ$1.4bn in its primary follow-on offering. The offering includes a NZ$1.2bn underwritten placement,...

Clarence Chu

Auckland Airport Possible Placement - Getting Closer to a US$800m Cleanup

Almost exactly a year ago, Auckland City Council (ACC) raised around US$320m via selling around 7% of its stake in Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)....

Sumeet Singh

Auckland Airport - FY24 — Capex Has Taken-Off

The pax recovery may be lagging, but the earnings recovery remains in full swing. Both FY24 EBITDA and NPAT are above FY19 levels.

Forsyth Barr

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