New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Air New Zealand's (AIR) official request to the Minister of Commerce, for an inquiry into the regulation of Auckland Airport (AIA), adds to the risk that the current favourable regulatory backdrop for airports changes in future.</li><li>​​​​AIA, along with Wellington and Christchurch airports, is currently subject to information disclosure within Part 4 of the Commerce Act.</li><li>AIR and other airlines would prefer the framework to incorporate negotiate/arbitrate regulation. </li></ul>

Air New Zealand's (AIR) official request to the Minister of Commerce, for an inquiry into the regulation of Auckland Airport (AIA), adds to the risk that the current favourable regulatory backdrop for airports changes in future.​​​​AIA, along with Wellington and Christchurch airports, is currently subject to information disclosure within Part 4 of the Commerce Act.AIR and other airlines would prefer the framework to incorporate negotiate/arbitrate regulation. 

Auckland Airport  - A Right Regulatory Ruck

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>For the first time in three years we are moving our WACC assumptions down.</li><li>This is driven by a modestly lower (-25 bps) interpolated 10-year interest rate assumption; our proxy for the risk free rate.</li><li>We also incorporate our C&amp;ESG ratings into our WACC assumptions. We do this on an overall neutral basis, with a scale of -25 bps to +25 bps added to the cost of equity. </li></ul>

For the first time in three years we are moving our WACC assumptions down.This is driven by a modestly lower (-25 bps) interpolated 10-year interest rate assumption; our proxy for the risk free rate.We also incorporate our C&amp;ESG ratings into our WACC assumptions. We do this on an overall neutral basis, with a scale of -25 bps to +25 bps added to the cost of equity. 

Equity Strategy - WACC Review; a Lower Rfr and Adding C&ESG

<ul><li>Auckland Airport (AIA) is lodging an appeal with the High Court, together with Wellington and Christchurch airports, and separately via the NZ Airports Association, against the Commerce Commission's (ComCom) recent Input Methodologies (IM) decision.</li><li>Details of the appeals are not public, but given the interest and changes made by the ComCom through the IM review process last year in its assessment of the asset beta for airports, we expect this will be a key area of the appeals. </li><li>The current regulatory regime for airports is favourable for AIA, providing a high RAB (regulatory asset base) multiple (we currently assume ~2.0x) for its aeronautical assets. </li></ul>

Auckland Airport (AIA) is lodging an appeal with the High Court, together with Wellington and Christchurch airports, and separately via the NZ Airports Association, against the Commerce Commission's (ComCom) recent Input Methodologies (IM) decision.Details of the appeals are not public, but given the interest and changes made by the ComCom through the IM review process last year in its assessment of the asset beta for airports, we expect this will be a key area of the appeals. The current regulatory regime for airports is favourable for AIA, providing a high RAB (regulatory asset base) multiple (we currently assume ~2.0x) for its aeronautical assets. 

<ul><li>We expect Auckland Airport's (AIA) retail business to feature more prominently over the next 12 months, after taking a back seat through COVID and during the regulatory focus of 2023.</li><li>It's an important value driver for AIA, accounting for almost one third of NPAT and generating a very attractive return on capital.</li><li>In the decade prior to COVID retail income had grown strongly, a function of passenger (pax) growth, international departures space expansion, improving pax mix with growth in Chinese arrivals, improving concession yield and minimum annual guarantees (MAG), and the development of off-airport duty-free retail. </li></ul>

We expect Auckland Airport's (AIA) retail business to feature more prominently over the next 12 months, after taking a back seat through COVID and during the regulatory focus of 2023.It's an important value driver for AIA, accounting for almost one third of NPAT and generating a very attractive return on capital.In the decade prior to COVID retail income had grown strongly, a function of passenger (pax) growth, international departures space expansion, improving pax mix with growth in Chinese arrivals, improving concession yield and minimum annual guarantees (MAG), and the development of off-airport duty-free retail. 

<ul><li>A deteriorating economic backdrop is impacting demand for freight and passengers.</li><li>Imports into New Zealand have slumped over 2023 as supply chain destocking has compounded slowing domestic consumption.</li><li>The latter has softened demand across different transport modes. </li></ul>

A deteriorating economic backdrop is impacting demand for freight and passengers.Imports into New Zealand have slumped over 2023 as supply chain destocking has compounded slowing domestic consumption.The latter has softened demand across different transport modes. 

Transport Trends - Where's the Freight, Mate?

New Zealand

Auckland International Airport Limited owns and operates the Auckland International Airport.  The Airport includes a single runway, an international terminal and two domestic terminals.  The Airport also has commercial facilities which includes airfreight operations, car rental services, commercial banking center and office buildings.

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Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)

Auckland Airport - A Right Regulatory Ruck

AIA, along with Wellington and Christchurch airports, is currently subject to information disclosure within Part 4 of the Commerce Act.

Forsyth Barr

Equity Strategy - WACC Review; a Lower Rfr and Adding C&ESG

For the first time in three years we are moving our WACC assumptions down. This is driven by a modestly lower (-25 bps) interpolated 10-year...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport - Reviewing the Merits

The current regulatory regime for airports is favourable for AIA, providing a high RAB (regulatory asset base) multiple (we currently assume ~2.0x)...

Forsyth Barr

Auckland Airport - Call of Duty Free

We expect Auckland Airport's (AIA) retail business to feature more prominently over the next 12 months, after taking a back seat through COVID and...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - Where's the Freight, Mate?

Imports into New Zealand have slumped over 2023 as supply chain destocking has compounded slowing domestic consumption. The latter has softened...

Forsyth Barr

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