Multi-asset Macro/Emerging Markets Strategist

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.<ul class=""><li>This week in trade ideas: Strategic short US Treasury 10s on a medium-term upward drift in inflation. Long Korean equities on prospective reduction in geopolitical risk premium. We keep relative value long positioning in: US banks vs SPX, NOK vs SEK, Japanese steel vs US steel and Saudi equities vs EM. We add short Russia RUB to our watchlist.</li><li>Monday: Japan machine tool orders, 3/10yr UST auction, India CPI/IP, Italy PD meeting, Spain Catalonia parliament selects regional president</li><li>Tuesday: US CPI, 30yr UST auction, Australia home loans, Malaysia/Mexico IP, Argentina BCRA, US special election in Pennsylvania</li><li>Wednesday: BOJ minutes, China activity (retails/IP/FAI), Japan core machine orders, Sweden CPI, Argentina CPI, Germany Merkel inauguration</li><li>Thursday: NZ GDP, SNB/Norges Bank MPC, TIC flows, Indonesia/India trade, Philippines remittances, EU27 approves Brexit text</li><li>Friday: Japan IP, US housing starts, US UMich sentiment, Singapore NODX</li><li>Corporate earnings:  Bharti Airtel, Ayala Corp (PH) (Mon), Sberbank, Antofagasta (Tue), Inditex, Prudential, Lukoil, Adidas (Wed), Broadcom, Adobe, Petrobras, Audi, Dollar General, Tenaga, DP World (Thu), CK Hutchison, Tiffany (Fri)</li></ul>

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.This week in trade ideas: Strategic short US Treasury 10s on a medium-term upward drift in inflation. Long Korean equities on prospective reduction in geopolitical risk premium. We keep relative value long positioning in: US banks vs SPX, NOK vs SEK, Japanese steel vs US steel and Saudi equities vs EM. We add short Russia RUB to our watchlist.Monday: Japan machine tool orders, 3/10yr UST auction, India CPI/IP, Italy PD meeting, Spain Catalonia parliament selects regional presidentTuesday: US CPI, 30yr UST auction, Australia home loans, Malaysia/Mexico IP, Argentina BCRA, US special election in PennsylvaniaWednesday: BOJ minutes, China activity (retails/IP/FAI), Japan core machine orders, Sweden CPI, Argentina CPI, Germany Merkel inaugurationThursday: NZ GDP, SNB/Norges Bank MPC, TIC flows, Indonesia/India trade, Philippines remittances, EU27 approves Brexit textFriday: Japan IP, US housing starts, US UMich sentiment, Singapore NODXCorporate earnings:  Bharti Airtel, Ayala Corp (PH) (Mon), Sberbank, Antofagasta (Tue), Inditex, Prudential, Lukoil, Adidas (Wed), Broadcom, Adobe, Petrobras, Audi, Dollar General, Tenaga, DP World (Thu), CK Hutchison, Tiffany (Fri)

Week Ahead in Global Macro: US CPI, UST Auctions, China Activity, Norges Bank, NZ GDP

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Trump trade policy confuses an already muddled FX market. The loud howls from near and far decrying the Trump tariffs may be contributing to an already negative global investor view of the USD.  However, most ways you slice it, Trump’s tariffs and broader economic nationalist policies should support the USD, particularly against EM and commodity currencies.  In Trump’s view of the world, the USA has been taken advantage of by pursuing the high ground of free trade orthodoxy.  If he is right, it makes sense to respond with trade protection even if that generates risks for growth.  Most agree that there is global over-production of steel.  If so, the US, as the largest steel importer, has the market clout to help address that problem with tariffs.  Fears for a negative fallout to other US industries is probably over-blown.  Threats of retaliation against the USA may be just that, as most of its trade partners have more to lose than gain if Trump plays hardball and responds in kind.

Trump trade policy confuses an already muddled FX market. The loud howls from near and far decrying the Trump tariffs may be contributing to an already negative global investor view of the USD.  However, most ways you slice it, Trump’s tariffs and broader economic nationalist policies should support the USD, particularly against EM and commodity currencies.  In Trump’s view of the world, the USA has been taken advantage of by pursuing the high ground of free trade orthodoxy.  If he is right, it makes sense to respond with trade protection even if that generates risks for growth.  Most agree that there is global over-production of steel.  If so, the US, as the largest steel importer, has the market clout to help address that problem with tariffs.  Fears for a negative fallout to other US industries is probably over-blown.  Threats of retaliation against the USA may be just that, as most of its trade partners have more to lose than gain if Trump plays hardball and responds in kind. 

The tariff fallout was surprisingly more towards a weaker USD. While this may reveal still underlying bearishness for the USD, other currencies, including EUR and AUD, appear to be more at risk than the USD.  USD/JPY may be finding a base after testing significant support near 105.  The Fed has turned somewhat more hawkish, the US economy has gained momentum, the Euro economy has lost some momentum and the Italian economy is likely to suffer in the political wilderness.

The tariff fallout was surprisingly more towards a weaker USD. While this may reveal still underlying bearishness for the USD, other currencies, including EUR and AUD, appear to be more at risk than the USD.  USD/JPY may be finding a base after testing significant support near 105.  The Fed has turned somewhat more hawkish, the US economy has gained momentum, the Euro economy has lost some momentum and the Italian economy is likely to suffer in the political wilderness. 

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.<ul class="">
<li>
This week in trade ideas: Go strategic long Norwegian Krone vs EUR and Saudi stocks. Stay short Italian stocks and bonds vs Stoxx 600 and Bunds. Consider fading Trump steel tariff news via relative value short US steel names vs Japanese peers. Stay strategic short Swedish Krona vs EUR. We stay constructive on JPY.</li>
<li>
Monday: Markets digest Italy vote/Germany SPD referendum, Trump tariffs on steel. Also: Australia MI CPI…</li>
</ul>

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.

This week in trade ideas: Go strategic long Norwegian Krone vs EUR and Saudi stocks. Stay short Italian stocks and bonds vs Stoxx 600 and Bunds. Consider fading Trump steel tariff news via relative value short US steel names vs Japanese peers. Stay strategic short Swedish Krona vs EUR. We stay constructive on JPY.

Monday: Markets digest Italy vote/Germany SPD referendum, Trump tariffs on steel. Also: Australia MI CPI…


Week Ahead in Global Macro: US NFP, Tariffs, ECB, BOJ, RBA, China NPC/CPI/Trade, BOC, BNM

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.<ul class="">
<li>
This week in trade ideas: Short Italian stocks and bonds on election-related turbulence, under-priced risk scenarios (BTP-Bund, FTSE-MIB vs Stoxx 600). Short EUR-JPY, long EUR-SEK. Stay long SGD-CNH, AUD-NZD, Malaysian equities.
</li>
<li>
Monday: ECB Draghi and VP nominee de Guindos, UK Corbyn</li>
<li>
Tuesday: NZ trade, Korea BOK, German CPI, Barnier Brexit briefing, US durable goods, Fed Powell Day 1</li>
<li>
Wednesday: Japan retails/IP…</li>
</ul>

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.

This week in trade ideas: Short Italian stocks and bonds on election-related turbulence, under-priced risk scenarios (BTP-Bund, FTSE-MIB vs Stoxx 600). Short EUR-JPY, long EUR-SEK. Stay long SGD-CNH, AUD-NZD, Malaysian equities.


Monday: ECB Draghi and VP nominee de Guindos, UK Corbyn

Tuesday: NZ trade, Korea BOK, German CPI, Barnier Brexit briefing, US durable goods, Fed Powell Day 1

Wednesday: Japan retails/IP…


Week Ahead in Global Macro: Powell in Congress, Italian Elections, PMIs, US PCE, Brexit Speech

Australia

The Australian dollar is the official currency of the Commonwealth of Australia.

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AUD (USDAUD CURNCY)

Week Ahead in Global Macro: US CPI, UST Auctions, China Activity, Norges Bank, NZ GDP

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas: Strategic short US Treasury 10s on a...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Trump Vs. Free Trade Orthodoxy

Trump trade policy confuses an already muddled FX market. The loud howls from near and far decrying the Trump tariffs may be contributing to an...

Greg Gibbs

EUR and AUD Risks Ignored for How Long?

The tariff fallout was surprisingly more towards a weaker USD. While this may reveal still underlying bearishness for the USD, other currencies,...

Greg Gibbs

Week Ahead in Global Macro: US NFP, Tariffs, ECB, BOJ, RBA, China NPC/CPI/Trade, BOC, BNM

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas: Go strategic long Norwegian Krone vs EUR...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Week Ahead in Global Macro: Powell in Congress, Italian Elections, PMIs, US PCE, Brexit Speech

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas: Short Italian stocks and bonds on...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)