Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

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Household debt service ratios (DSRs) are a key metric of macro-economic risk and vulnerability. There is a mounting consenus amongst macro-economists that high and rising debt levels may boost short-term growth but they negatively impact medium-term performance.
DSRs are the key vector of transmission. Higher debt leads to higher DSRs, magnifying the impact of any policy tightening. Importantly, the impact of policy easing when debt is high may be asymmetric as highly indebted consumers prefer…
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Household debt service ratios (DSRs) are a key metric of macro-economic risk and vulnerability. There is a mounting consenus amongst macro-economists that high and rising debt levels may boost short-term growth but they negatively impact medium-term performance.
DSRs are the key vector of transmission. Higher debt leads to higher DSRs, magnifying the impact of any policy tightening. Importantly, the impact of policy easing when debt is high may be asymmetric as highly indebted consumers prefer…


Chart of the Day: The World's Most Vulnerable Consumer

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The day after <a href="http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2017/mr-17-25.html" target="_blank">the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) chose to dial back its concern over the CPI inflation's increasingly serial target undershoot</a>, the Q3 National Accounts underlined the strength of the disinflationary pressures that continue to hold sway in the Australian economy. 
The household consumption final expenditure (HCFE) is the national accounts version of the CPI and, over time, the two marry up closely despite slight differences in weighting and coverage. HCFE weights are frequently…
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The day after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) chose to dial back its concern over the CPI inflation's increasingly serial target undershoot, the Q3 National Accounts underlined the strength of the disinflationary pressures that continue to hold sway in the Australian economy. 
The household consumption final expenditure (HCFE) is the national accounts version of the CPI and, over time, the two marry up closely despite slight differences in weighting and coverage. HCFE weights are frequently…


FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Around two decades ago AUD was languishing at record lows labelled an old economy left out by the ‘new IT economy.'  It feels a bit like its happening all over again.  Australia’s interest rate advantage has slipped, and its equity market is under-performing.  On Monday, US 2yr swap rates rose to a cyclical high and converged with falling Australian rates for the first time since 2001.  Equity capital flows are playing a bigger part in driving currencies in the last year, and on that front Australia looks equally underwhelming.

Around two decades ago AUD was languishing at record lows labelled an old economy left out by the ‘new IT economy.'  It feels a bit like its happening all over again.  Australia’s interest rate advantage has slipped, and its equity market is under-performing.  On Monday, US 2yr swap rates rose to a cyclical high and converged with falling Australian rates for the first time since 2001.  Equity capital flows are playing a bigger part in driving currencies in the last year, and on that front Australia looks equally underwhelming.

AUD May Suffer a Redux of the Old Economy Blues

Investors are pursuing gains in equity markets; in particular, EM markets that are big exporters of IT goods.  These capital flows are tending to drive currencies; Asian EM currencies are out-performing other EM regions.  The USD is tending to weaken as the US growth outlook is moderate and no more special than other economies.  The Fed may be raising rates faster than other countries, but not so fast to upset domestic or global growth expectations.  Commodity currencies are under-performing.  There appears to be excess supply of commodities, and while some commodity prices have strengthened this year, performance has been mixed.  Chinese construction demand may be slowing, weakening demand for steel-making commodities.  Yield curve flattening may reflect good disinflation trends related to technological disruption and globalization that support global asset markets; albeit with winners and losers along the lines of disruption.  Comprehensive US tax reform may upset recent trends of a softer USD and strong EM markets.  GBP has firmed this week despite evidence that its economy is suffering from Brexit uncertainty, UK government instability, and growing time pressure on Brexit negotiations.  The AUD/USD 2yr swap spread is close to flipping into negative territory for the first time since 2001.

Investors are pursuing gains in equity markets; in particular, EM markets that are big exporters of IT goods.  These capital flows are tending to drive currencies; Asian EM currencies are out-performing other EM regions.  The USD is tending to weaken as the US growth outlook is moderate and no more special than other economies.  The Fed may be raising rates faster than other countries, but not so fast to upset domestic or global growth expectations.  Commodity currencies are under-performing.  There appears to be excess supply of commodities, and while some commodity prices have strengthened this year, performance has been mixed.  Chinese construction demand may be slowing, weakening demand for steel-making commodities.  Yield curve flattening may reflect good disinflation trends related to technological disruption and globalization that support global asset markets; albeit with winners and losers along the lines of disruption.  Comprehensive US tax reform may upset recent trends of a softer USD and strong EM markets.  GBP has firmed this week despite evidence that its economy is suffering from Brexit uncertainty, UK government instability, and growing time pressure on Brexit negotiations.  The AUD/USD 2yr swap spread is close to flipping into negative territory for the first time since 2001.

IT Disruption Driving up Asia EM Currencies, GBP Risk Builds, AUD Yield Advantage Gone

It is getting harder to know where to turn with political risk in the UK palpable. A dual citizenship debacle in Australia, NAFTA negotiations hanging over the CAD outlook, a significant change in policy direction in New Zealand, German coalition negotiations, and political uncertainty has never been far from mind in the US in the Trump era.  Japan is a source of stability, supporting its equities, not its currency.

It is getting harder to know where to turn with political risk in the UK palpable. A dual citizenship debacle in Australia, NAFTA negotiations hanging over the CAD outlook, a significant change in policy direction in New Zealand, German coalition negotiations, and political uncertainty has never been far from mind in the US in the Trump era.  Japan is a source of stability, supporting its equities, not its currency.

Political Risk for a Number of Currencies (AUD, NZD, GBP and CAD)

Australia

The Australian dollar is the official currency of the Commonwealth of Australia.

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AUD (USDAUD CURNCY)

Chart of the Day: The World's Most Vulnerable Consumer

Household debt service ratios (DSRs) are a key metric of macro-economic risk and vulnerability. There is a mounting consenus amongst...

Richard Iley

Chart of the Day: RBA Has a Problem

The day after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) chose to dial back its concern over the CPI inflation's increasingly serial target undershoot,...

Richard Iley

AUD May Suffer a Redux of the Old Economy Blues

Around two decades ago AUD was languishing at record lows labelled an old economy left out by the ‘new IT economy.' It feels a bit like its...

Greg Gibbs

IT Disruption Driving up Asia EM Currencies, GBP Risk Builds, AUD Yield Advantage Gone

Investors are pursuing gains in equity markets; in particular, EM markets that are big exporters of IT goods. These capital flows are tending to...

Greg Gibbs

Political Risk for a Number of Currencies (AUD, NZD, GBP and CAD)

It is getting harder to know where to turn with political risk in the UK palpable. A dual citizenship debacle in Australia, NAFTA negotiations...

Greg Gibbs

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)