IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chagee-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45011:1" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US)</a>, a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$400-500 million through a Nasdaq IPO. </li>
<li>According to iResearch, as of December 31, 2024, Chagee was the largest premium freshly made tea drink brand in China by the number of stores.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation.   </li>
</ul>



Chagee Holdings (CHA US), a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$400-500 million through a Nasdaq IPO. 
According to iResearch, as of December 31, 2024, Chagee was the largest premium freshly made tea drink brand in China by the number of stores.
The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation.   


Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a>, a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mixue-group-2097-hk-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:177152" rel="noopener">MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mixue-group-2097-hk-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:177307" rel="noopener">MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bear Case</a>. </li>
<li>There are five cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests Mixue is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (2097 HK), a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO.
We previously discussed the IPO in MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case and MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bear Case. 
There are five cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests Mixue is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.


MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (MIX HK)</a>, a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mixue-group-2097-hk-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:177152" rel="noopener">MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, bottom-tier R&amp;D spending, high capex intensity, and bottom-tier FCF generation.   </li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (MIX HK), a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO.
In MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, bottom-tier R&amp;D spending, high capex intensity, and bottom-tier FCF generation.   


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (MIX HK)</a>, a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO. </li>
<li>According to CIC, Mixue is the largest freshly made drinks company in China and worldwide, according to the number of stores as of September 30, 2024.</li>
<li>The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation. </li>
</ul>



Mixue Group (MIX HK), a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO. 
According to CIC, Mixue is the largest freshly made drinks company in China and worldwide, according to the number of stores as of September 30, 2024.
The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation. 


HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>MIXUE invited experts to conduct calculations based on population data. The result is a maximum of 45,000 stores can be opened. So, MIXUE has reached the growth ceiling in China.</li>
<li>The pain point is since MIXUE’s growth depends significantly on its ability to expand store network, once the growth of franchised stores slows down, a performance decline would be inevitable.</li>
<li>Due to larger scale effect/stronger supply chains/higher net profit margin, MIXUE’s valuation should be higher than peers. Higher valuation depends on whether MIXUE is able to make breakthrough in internationalization.</li>
</ul>


MIXUE invited experts to conduct calculations based on population data. The result is a maximum of 45,000 stores can be opened. So, MIXUE has reached the growth ceiling in China.
The pain point is since MIXUE’s growth depends significantly on its ability to expand store network, once the growth of franchised stores slows down, a performance decline would be inevitable.
Due to larger scale effect/stronger supply chains/higher net profit margin, MIXUE’s valuation should be higher than peers. Higher valuation depends on whether MIXUE is able to make breakthrough in internationalization.


Pre-IPO MIXUE Group Update - The Snow King Is Facing Headwinds

China

Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial Co., Ltd. operates a chain of tea shops offering a diverse range of freshly made beverages and snacks, including fruit tea, milk tea, yogurt shakes, coffee, and ice cream. The company primarily serves the domestic market in the People's Republic of China through franchised and self-operated stores. It was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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Auntea Jenny (2589 HK)

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation.

Arun George

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests Mixue is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, bottom-tier R&D spending, high capex intensity, and bottom-tier FCF generation.

Arun George

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation.

Arun George

Pre-IPO MIXUE Group Update - The Snow King Is Facing Headwinds

MIXUE has hit growth ceiling in China with 45,000 store limit, faces performance decline if franchise growth slows. Valuation should be higher...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation.

Arun George

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests Mixue is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, bottom-tier R&D spending, high capex intensity, and bottom-tier FCF generation.

Arun George

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case

The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation.

Arun George

Pre-IPO MIXUE Group Update - The Snow King Is Facing Headwinds

​MIXUE has hit growth ceiling in China with 45,000 store limit, faces performance decline if franchise growth slows. Valuation should be higher...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

MIXUE has hit growth ceiling in China with 45,000 store limit, faces performance decline if franchise growth slows. Valuation should be higher...