Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Logistics and infrastructure play <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qube-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:958:1" rel="noopener">Qube (QUB AU)</a></strong> has announced the Macquarie Asset Management-led consortium has now firmed an Offer at A$5.20/share, the same price as the NBIO.</li>
<li>Terms equate to a 27.8% premium to undisturbed. And ~14.5x FY25 EV/EBITDA. Fully franked dividends up to A$0.40/share are permitted but will be netted. UniSuper to roll up its 15.07%</li>
<li>Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB, ACCC, OIO, and PNG regs.</li>
</ul>


Logistics and infrastructure play Qube (QUB AU) has announced the Macquarie Asset Management-led consortium has now firmed an Offer at A$5.20/share, the same price as the NBIO.
Terms equate to a 27.8% premium to undisturbed. And ~14.5x FY25 EV/EBITDA. Fully franked dividends up to A$0.40/share are permitted but will be netted. UniSuper to roll up its 15.07%
Qube directors are supportive. The proposal is conditional on due diligence, board approvals, no MACs at Qube, plus regulatory clearance, including FIRB, ACCC, OIO, and PNG regs.


Qube (QUB AU): Trading Tight To Macquarie's Firm Offer

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jan 16th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD31.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Goodman, Treasury Wine Estates, NEWMONT, Scentre, South32.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jan 16th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD31.5bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Goodman, Treasury Wine Estates, NEWMONT, Scentre, South32.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 16th): Goodman, Treasury Wine Estates, NEWMONT

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jan 2nd (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD30.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Treasury Wine Estates, IGO, Washington H Soul Pattinson&amp;Co, Aurizon, Woolworths.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jan 2nd (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD30.3bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Treasury Wine Estates, IGO, Washington H Soul Pattinson&amp;Co, Aurizon, Woolworths.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 2nd): Treasury Wine Estates, IGO, Washington H Soul Pattinson&Co

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast no inclusions to the index in September. There could be up to 3 deletions at the review though.</li>
<li>Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.8% and a round-trip trade of A$232m.</li>
<li>If there are 3 deletes as forecast, one-way turnover increases to 6.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of A$384m.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast no inclusions to the index in September. There could be up to 3 deletions at the review though.
Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.8% and a round-trip trade of A$232m.
If there are 3 deletes as forecast, one-way turnover increases to 6.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of A$384m.


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in September

Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In today's edition: -Ask FNArena -Review All-Weather Model Portfolio -Recent Updates On Expert Views -Best Buys & Conviction Calls</li></ul>

In today's edition: -Ask FNArena -Review All-Weather Model Portfolio -Recent Updates On Expert Views -Best Buys & Conviction Calls

Rudi's View: Bega Cheese, Cettire, Harvey Norman, Sigma, SiteMinder & More

Australia

Aurizon Holdings Ltd is a rail freight company. The Company provides coal, bulk and general freight haulage services, operating on the Central Queensland Coal Network (CQCN) and including specialised track maintenance and workshop support functions.

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Aurizon Holdings (AZJ AU)

Qube (QUB AU): Trading Tight To Macquarie's Firm Offer

That strikes me as being way too tight, even if factoring in franking credits for those who can take advantage; and especially noting ACCC may well...

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 16th): Goodman, Treasury Wine Estates, NEWMONT

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Goodman, Treasury Wine Estates, NEWMONT CORPORATION...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jan 2nd): Treasury Wine Estates, IGO, Washington H Soul Pattinson&Co

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Treasury Wine Estates, IGO, Washington H Soul...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in September

We do not forecast any inclusions but there could be 3 deletions. Just capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.8% and a round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

Rudi's View: Bega Cheese, Cettire, Harvey Norman, Sigma, SiteMinder & More

In today's edition: -Ask FNArena -Review All-Weather Model Portfolio -Recent Updates On Expert Views -Best Buys & Conviction Calls

FNArena

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