Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a>'s bidder list is out. It is Bain, Brookfield, JIP-JIC, and CVC. Overall, the impression of this pool of candidates is negative</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> is trading cheap at a look-through forward P/B of 0.26x compared to its five-year average of 0.38x, and the two-year average pre-Covid of 0.48x. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soho-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4123:1" rel="noopener">Soho China (410 HK)</a>'s name was toxic after SAMR dinged Blackstone's deal. It is no less toxic now. Arguably the upside is greater than the downside. But on what timeframe?</li>
</ul>



Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)'s bidder list is out. It is Bain, Brookfield, JIP-JIC, and CVC. Overall, the impression of this pool of candidates is negative

Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) is trading cheap at a look-through forward P/B of 0.26x compared to its five-year average of 0.38x, and the two-year average pre-Covid of 0.48x. 

Soho China (410 HK)'s name was toxic after SAMR dinged Blackstone's deal. It is no less toxic now. Arguably the upside is greater than the downside. But on what timeframe?


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Swire, SOHO, Link Admin, DIDI Global, 51job

Travis Lundy

Australia & New Zealand Bankin / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>ANZ got about half its equity raise done, with the shortfall bookbuild only being 5% of the institutional total and clearing above TERP. Now the retail rights.</li>
<li>Risk management mechanisms suggest rights trade expensive to stock near-term, then cheapen, as ANZ shares experience some selling pressure from arbs.</li>
<li>But ANZ is cheap. Relative weakness on FY2-FY3 EPS forecasts has contributed to 25% underperformance vs Peers since January but Relative Multiple Deterioration has contributed more.</li>
</ul>


ANZ got about half its equity raise done, with the shortfall bookbuild only being 5% of the institutional total and clearing above TERP. Now the retail rights.
Risk management mechanisms suggest rights trade expensive to stock near-term, then cheapen, as ANZ shares experience some selling pressure from arbs.
But ANZ is cheap. Relative weakness on FY2-FY3 EPS forecasts has contributed to 25% underperformance vs Peers since January but Relative Multiple Deterioration has contributed more.


ANZ's Equity Raise Successful, Trading at TERP, and STILL Cheap To Peers

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suncorp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4218:1" rel="noopener">Suncorp (SUN AU)</a> agreed to sell its banking business (Suncorp Bank) to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australia-and-new-zealand-banking-group-anz" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:443:1" rel="noopener">Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) (ANZ AU)</a> for A$4.9 billion in cash. Completion targeted for 2HCY2023.</li>
<li>Suncorp Bank’s sale price is attractive. We estimate that New Suncorp (ex-banking) is currently valued at a 24% discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insurance-australia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:712:1" rel="noopener">Insurance Australia (IAG AU)</a> on an FY2023 P/E basis.</li>
<li>Post-Completion, New Suncorp will be a leaner and more efficient business which will be better positioned to close (or even exceed) the valuation gap to Insurance Australia Group.</li>
</ul>



Suncorp (SUN AU) agreed to sell its banking business (Suncorp Bank) to Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) (ANZ AU) for A$4.9 billion in cash. Completion targeted for 2HCY2023.
Suncorp Bank’s sale price is attractive. We estimate that New Suncorp (ex-banking) is currently valued at a 24% discount to Insurance Australia (IAG AU) on an FY2023 P/E basis.
Post-Completion, New Suncorp will be a leaner and more efficient business which will be better positioned to close (or even exceed) the valuation gap to Insurance Australia Group.


Suncorp’s Banking Sale to ANZ Will Unlock Value

Equity Capital Markets

Australia & New Zealand Bankin / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australia-and-new-zealand-banking-group-anz" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:443:1" rel="noopener">Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) (ANZ AU)</a> this morning made a flurry of announcements. First and foremost, ANZ <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220718/pdf/45bxs7w823ntzt.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">withdrew from discussions on MYOB</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220718/pdf/45bxsfxcgwbpyz.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Q3 earnings</a> ended 30 June saw revenue +5%, lending up 3%yoy, markets revenue +7%, NIM up 3bp (rising rates helps). Basel3 APRA Level2/Level1 CET1 Ratios were 11.1%/10.4%. </li>
<li>But the big news: ANZ is buying SunCorp Bank from SunCorp (SUN AU) for A$4.9bn (1.3x NTA), and will raise A$3.5bn through a 1 for 15 renounceable rights offering.</li>
</ul>



Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) (ANZ AU) this morning made a flurry of announcements. First and foremost, ANZ withdrew from discussions on MYOB.

Q3 earnings ended 30 June saw revenue +5%, lending up 3%yoy, markets revenue +7%, NIM up 3bp (rising rates helps). Basel3 APRA Level2/Level1 CET1 Ratios were 11.1%/10.4%. 
But the big news: ANZ is buying SunCorp Bank from SunCorp (SUN AU) for A$4.9bn (1.3x NTA), and will raise A$3.5bn through a 1 for 15 renounceable rights offering.


ANZ Bank (ANZ AU) Nixes MYOB, Yeas SunCorp Bank, To Raise A$3.5bn of Equity

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>ANZ aims to raise around US$2.4bn (A$3.5bn) via a renounceable entitlement offer to part fund the purchase of Suncorp Bank.</li>
<li>In our view, neither the fundraising nor the acquisition appear to be particularly well flagged. ANZ’s withdrawal from MYOB talks might be the most positive thing about the announcement.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


ANZ aims to raise around US$2.4bn (A$3.5bn) via a renounceable entitlement offer to part fund the purchase of Suncorp Bank.
In our view, neither the fundraising nor the acquisition appear to be particularly well flagged. ANZ’s withdrawal from MYOB talks might be the most positive thing about the announcement.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


ANZ Renounceable Entitlement Offer - Dilute Now, Accrete Later. Still Appears Better than MYOB

Australia

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited provides banking services. The Bank offers accounts checking, savings  deposits, money market, mortgage, and term loans services, as well as card facilities and Internet  banking services. Australia and New Zealand Banking Group serves customers in New Zealand and Australia.

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Australia & New Zealand Bankin (AN3 AU)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toshiba, Swire, SOHO, Link Admin, DIDI Global, 51job

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

ANZ's Equity Raise Successful, Trading at TERP, and STILL Cheap To Peers

ANZ has done half its equity raise. Now the retail rights, which trade in the market. Expect them to trade rich first, then cheap as selling...

Travis Lundy

Suncorp’s Banking Sale to ANZ Will Unlock Value

We estimate that New Suncorp (ex-banking) is currently valued at a 24% discount to key peer, IAG, on an FY2023 P/E basis. The valuation gap can...

Arun George

ANZ Bank (ANZ AU) Nixes MYOB, Yeas SunCorp Bank, To Raise A$3.5bn of Equity

ANZ will issue A$3.5bn of equity - an insto block and a tradable rights offer to retail - to buy #7 bank SunCorp Bank. It adds heft, but the ACCC...

Travis Lundy

ANZ Renounceable Entitlement Offer - Dilute Now, Accrete Later. Still Appears Better than MYOB

ANZ aims to raise around US$2.4bn (A$3.5bn) via a renounceable entitlement offer to part fund the purchase of Suncorp Bank.

Sumeet Singh

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