Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>We are beginning to see rotations back into risk-on areas of the market, a bullish sign for global equities. This only adds to our constructive outlook; we are bullish and we expect higher prices in the weeks and months ahead. </p>

We are beginning to see rotations back into risk-on areas of the market, a bullish sign for global equities. This only adds to our constructive outlook; we are bullish and we expect higher prices in the weeks and months ahead. 

Global Equity Strategy: Buy Energy & Financials; EM Improving

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<div><p>In this Insight, we look at Asian financial pairs that normally trade in a tight band versus each other and are now trading at levels that are close to an extreme, making it likely that there could be a short term reversal. We also recap our earlier ideas and recommend exiting a position where there are gains and the price ratio is near a turning point.</p></div><div><p>These are all large cap financials that trade in excess of US$20m a day, so implementing the strategy should be possible using stock borrow or single stock futures.</p></div><div>
<p>These ideas are based purely off the stock price history and we recommend investors use a fundamental overlay to determine if the price action is reflective of changes in the sector that benefit one company at the expense of the other, or benefit one company more than the other.</p>
<p>Over the last couple of months, our pair trades have returned 2.54% on average.</p>
</div>

In this Insight, we look at Asian financial pairs that normally trade in a tight band versus each other and are now trading at levels that are close to an extreme, making it likely that there could be a short term reversal. We also recap our earlier ideas and recommend exiting a position where there are gains and the price ratio is near a turning point.These are all large cap financials that trade in excess of US$20m a day, so implementing the strategy should be possible using stock borrow or single stock futures.
These ideas are based purely off the stock price history and we recommend investors use a fundamental overlay to determine if the price action is reflective of changes in the sector that benefit one company at the expense of the other, or benefit one company more than the other.
Over the last couple of months, our pair trades have returned 2.54% on average.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>Today, the Victorian government rejected a A$250mn 300-metre floating gas terminal proposal at Mornington Peninsula. Planning Minister Richard Wynne said the Crib Point terminal would have had "<a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02358799-2A1289920?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><em>unacceptable environmental effects</em></a>" in Western Port.</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/198/047/original/image_90576892521617071507869.png?1617071510" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="198047"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source: ABC. A protester in a wetsuit taking his concerns about the terminal to the Victorian Parliament in early March</div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agl-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:554:1" rel="noopener">AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)</a>, which has already outlayed millions of dollars on the Crib Point project, <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02358799-2A1289920?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it was “<em>considering its position</em>” on the minister’s decision.</p>
<p>Concurrent with this rejection, AGL <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02358644-2A1289840?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it was splitting into two separate companies: a thermal coal generation business and a separate zero-carbon energy retailer. </p>
<p>The split follows a raft of new initiatives/developments recently including an <a href="https://www.agl.com.au/about-agl/media-centre/asx-and-media-releases/2021/january/agl-announces-suppliers-for-grid-scale-battery-plans" target="_blank" rel="noopener">agreement</a> with suppliers for grid-scale battery plans, the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02355442-2A1288076?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">renewal</a> of the Portland smelter contract, and the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02353382-2A1286980?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">participation</a> in PowAR's acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tilt-renewables-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24371:1" rel="noopener">Tilt Renewables Ltd (TLT NZ)</a> (<em><a href="https://skr.ma/i5ugg" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tilt Renewables: Mercury/PowAr's Big Blow</a></em>).</p>
<p>Speculation of a demerger has been running hot since Australia's oldest energy unity grappled with softening power prices, and a <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02340133-2A1279818?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A$2.29bn</a> loss in the 1H21, exacerbated by A$2.7bn in <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02337704-2A1278422?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">impairment charges</a>. </p>
<p>The share price reaction to the split was largely muted. </p>
<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>

Today, the Victorian government rejected a A$250mn 300-metre floating gas terminal proposal at Mornington Peninsula. Planning Minister Richard Wynne said the Crib Point terminal would have had "unacceptable environmental effects" in Western Port.

Source: ABC. A protester in a wetsuit taking his concerns about the terminal to the Victorian Parliament in early March
AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU), which has already outlayed millions of dollars on the Crib Point project, announced it was “considering its position” on the minister’s decision.
Concurrent with this rejection, AGL announced it was splitting into two separate companies: a thermal coal generation business and a separate zero-carbon energy retailer. 
The split follows a raft of new initiatives/developments recently including an agreement with suppliers for grid-scale battery plans, the renewal of the Portland smelter contract, and the participation in PowAR's acquisition of Tilt Renewables Ltd (TLT NZ) (Tilt Renewables: Mercury/PowAr's Big Blow).
Speculation of a demerger has been running hot since Australia's oldest energy unity grappled with softening power prices, and a A$2.29bn loss in the 1H21, exacerbated by A$2.7bn in impairment charges. 
The share price reaction to the split was largely muted. 
As always, more below the fold.

AGL Energy (AGL AU): Carbon/Zero-Carbon Split

<div><p>In this Insight, we look at Asian financial pairs that normally trade in a tight band versus each other and are now trading at levels that are close to an extreme, making it likely that there could be a short term reversal. We also recap our earlier ideas and recommend exiting a few positions, especially where there are gains and the price ratios are at turning points.</p></div><div>
<p>These are all large cap financials that trade in excess of US$20m a day, so implementing the strategy should be possible using stock borrow or single stock futures.</p>
<p>These ideas are based purely off the stock price history and we recommend investors use a fundamental overlay to determine if the price action is reflective of changes in the sector that benefit one company at the expense of the other, or benefit one company more than the other.</p>
</div>

In this Insight, we look at Asian financial pairs that normally trade in a tight band versus each other and are now trading at levels that are close to an extreme, making it likely that there could be a short term reversal. We also recap our earlier ideas and recommend exiting a few positions, especially where there are gains and the price ratios are at turning points.
These are all large cap financials that trade in excess of US$20m a day, so implementing the strategy should be possible using stock borrow or single stock futures.
These ideas are based purely off the stock price history and we recommend investors use a fundamental overlay to determine if the price action is reflective of changes in the sector that benefit one company at the expense of the other, or benefit one company more than the other.


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p>In Dec 2020, we wrote about how Education Australia, the largest shareholder for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idp-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1098:1" rel="noopener">IDP Education (IEL AU)</a>, had launched a formal review of the rest of its 40% stake in IDP which might lead to a selldown, see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/idp-education-placement-early-look-a-big-block-whole-lot-of-blocks-could-be-coming" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IDP Education Placement Early Look - A Big Block/​Whole Lot of Blocks Could Be Coming</a>.</p>
<p>On 11th Mar 2021, the selldown was more or less confirmed and Education Australia also specified what it plans to do with the rest of its stake.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>We have looked at IDP Education's IPO and previous placements since it listed in Nov 2015, links to our earlier notes are below:</p>
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ipo-preview-growing-market-and-strategic-co-owner-combined-with-a-global-brand-means-its-set-to-fly" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IPO Preview: Growing market and strategic co-owner combined with a global brand means its set to fly, </a>  </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quick-note-global-brand-at-an-attractive-price" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Quick Note: Global brand at an attractive price,</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/idp-education-first-test-them-then-place-them" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IDP Education: First Test Them, Then Place Them,</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/idp-education-placement-testing-times-but-it-will-pass-probably-with-flying-colours" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IDP Education Placement: Testing Times but It Will Pass, Probably with Flying Colours,</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/idp-education-placement-last-deal-was-a-smash-hit-this-one-won-t-be-as-lucky" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IDP Education Placement - Last Deal Was a Smash Hit, This One Won’t Be as Lucky</a></li>
</ul>
</div>


In Dec 2020, we wrote about how Education Australia, the largest shareholder for IDP Education (IEL AU), had launched a formal review of the rest of its 40% stake in IDP which might lead to a selldown, see IDP Education Placement Early Look - A Big Block/​Whole Lot of Blocks Could Be Coming.
On 11th Mar 2021, the selldown was more or less confirmed and Education Australia also specified what it plans to do with the rest of its stake.


We have looked at IDP Education's IPO and previous placements since it listed in Nov 2015, links to our earlier notes are below:




IPO Preview: Growing market and strategic co-owner combined with a global brand means its set to fly,   
Quick Note: Global brand at an attractive price,
IDP Education: First Test Them, Then Place Them,
IDP Education Placement: Testing Times but It Will Pass, Probably with Flying Colours,
IDP Education Placement - Last Deal Was a Smash Hit, This One Won’t Be as Lucky



IDP Education Placement Early Look - US$800m Block a Given in 2021

Australia

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited provides banking services. The Bank offers accounts checking, savings  deposits, money market, mortgage, and term loans services, as well as card facilities and Internet  banking services. Australia and New Zealand Banking Group serves customers in New Zealand and Australia.

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Australia & New Zealand Bankin (AN3 AU)

Global Equity Strategy: Buy Energy & Financials; EM Improving

We are seeing rotations back into risk-on areas of the market (Energy & Financials), a bullish sign for global equities. We are bullish and we...

Vermilion Research

Pair Trading Ideas - Asian Financials

We highlight potential trades among liquid large cap Asian financial stocks that are correlated and exhibit mean reversion. We recommend closing...

Brian Freitas

AGL Energy (AGL AU): Carbon/Zero-Carbon Split

The demerger announcement provides shareholders with a carbon exposure choice. Arguably, the split should be positive for forward growth for both...

David Blennerhassett

Pair Trading Ideas - Asian Financials

Pair trades on large cap Asian financials that trade in excess of US$20m a day. These pairs trade in bands versus each other and currently offer...

Brian Freitas

IDP Education Placement Early Look - US$800m Block a Given in 2021

In Dec 2020, we wrote about how Education Australia, the largest shareholder for IDP Education, had launched a formal review which might lead to a...

Sumeet Singh

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