Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We expect the maximum permitted 30 changes at a single review to take place at the June rebalance. Most changes are high probability.</li>
<li>We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.25% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 10.677bn.</li>
<li>Industrials, Information Technology and Materials sectors are expected to have the most net inclusions, while Health Care and Financials are expected to have the most net deletions.</li>
</ul>


We expect the maximum permitted 30 changes at a single review to take place at the June rebalance. Most changes are high probability.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.25% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 10.677bn.
Industrials, Information Technology and Materials sectors are expected to have the most net inclusions, while Health Care and Financials are expected to have the most net deletions.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 30 Potential Changes as Sector Rotation Continues

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The quit of the centralized procurement of chemiluminescence products in Anhui directly put <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/autobio-diagnostics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30185:1" rel="noopener">Autobio Diagnostics (603658 CH)</a> in a passive position. The implications could be deeper and more complex than expected.</li>
<li>Autobio didn’t seize COVID-19 testing opportunities, leading to the doubts about the Company's market sensitivity and team execution, thus losing the opportunity to generate substantial cash flow for future acquisitions.</li>
<li>Together with weak internationalization business, Autobio's future performance growth could be uncertain and may not be able to support the rapid valuation expansion as expected.</li>
</ul>


The quit of the centralized procurement of chemiluminescence products in Anhui directly put Autobio Diagnostics (603658 CH) in a passive position. The implications could be deeper and more complex than expected.
Autobio didn’t seize COVID-19 testing opportunities, leading to the doubts about the Company's market sensitivity and team execution, thus losing the opportunity to generate substantial cash flow for future acquisitions.
Together with weak internationalization business, Autobio's future performance growth could be uncertain and may not be able to support the rapid valuation expansion as expected.


Autobio Diagnostics Co Ltd (603658.CH) - Logic Changes

Yankuang Energy Group   / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With a few weeks to the end of the review period, we see 30 potential changes (the maximum allowed at a review) to the index in June.</li>
<li>Most of the changes are high probability ones. We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.48% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.86bn.</li>
<li>The potential inclusions have outperformed the potential deletions over the last couple of months. There could be more to go here as positions are built in the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


With a few weeks to the end of the review period, we see 30 potential changes (the maximum allowed at a review) to the index in June.
Most of the changes are high probability ones. We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.48% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.86bn.
The potential inclusions have outperformed the potential deletions over the last couple of months. There could be more to go here as positions are built in the next few weeks.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Maxing Out the 30 Changes

<ul>
<li>Nearly midway through the review period for the June rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a>, we see 29 potential changes to the index.</li>
<li>There are a lot of high and medium probability changes that could result in a one-way turnover of 4.2% and a one-way trade of CNY 10.17bn at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>The potential inclusions have underperformed the potential deletions by c.15% over the last month and this provides a good entry point into a long short/trade.</li>
</ul>


Nearly midway through the review period for the June rebalance of the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX), we see 29 potential changes to the index.
There are a lot of high and medium probability changes that could result in a one-way turnover of 4.2% and a one-way trade of CNY 10.17bn at the June rebalance.
The potential inclusions have underperformed the potential deletions by c.15% over the last month and this provides a good entry point into a long short/trade.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview (June 2022): Changes Near the Midway Mark

Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering-A / Equity Bottom-Up

Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering-A (300832 CH)

Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering-A

<p>Recently, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhen-new-industries-biomedical-engineering-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29889:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering-A (300832 CH)</a> (SNIBE) released its 2021/1H financial results. The revenue was RMB1.226 billion, up 26.35% YoY. Net profit attributed to shareholders was RMB429 million, down 9.90% YoY. Net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 383 million, down 12.28% YoY. The performance was lower-than-expected. Meanwhile, there was document about the centralized procurement on test reagents in the field of chemiluminescence in Anhui Province, which was released on August 19, 2021, and SNIBE’s share price decreased about 14.34% on August 20. This insight mainly analyzed the business of the Company and the potential impact of centralized procurement. </p>

Recently, Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering-A (300832 CH) (SNIBE) released its 2021/1H financial results. The revenue was RMB1.226 billion, up 26.35% YoY. Net profit attributed to shareholders was RMB429 million, down 9.90% YoY. Net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 383 million, down 12.28% YoY. The performance was lower-than-expected. Meanwhile, there was document about the centralized procurement on test reagents in the field of chemiluminescence in Anhui Province, which was released on August 19, 2021, and SNIBE’s share price decreased about 14.34% on August 20. This insight mainly analyzed the business of the Company and the potential impact of centralized procurement. 

New Industries Biomedical Engineering (300832.CH) - The Centralized Procurement Changes the Logic

China

Autobio Diagnostics Co., Ltd. manufactures medical reagents and equipment. The Company designs, produces, and sells clinical diagnostic products, rapid test devices, and other related instruments around the world.

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Autobio Diagnostics (603658 CH)

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 30 Potential Changes as Sector Rotation Continues

We forecast 30 changes at the June rebalance for the CSI300 Index - most high probability. Industrials, IT and Materials sectors will have net...

Brian Freitas

Autobio Diagnostics Co Ltd (603658.CH) - Logic Changes

It's not wise for Autobio to quit chemiluminescence centralized procurement in Anhui.The failure of seizing COVID-19 testing opportunity and weak...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Maxing Out the 30 Changes

We estimate 30 changes at the June rebalance with a one-way turnover of 4.48% leading to a one-way trade of CNY 7.86bn. The potential adds have...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview (June 2022): Changes Near the Midway Mark

Nearly midway through the review period for the June rebalance of the CSI300 index, we see 29 potential changes resulting in a one-way turnover of...

Brian Freitas

New Industries Biomedical Engineering (300832.CH) - The Centralized Procurement Changes the Logic

The insight analyzed Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering in terms of its business,the potential impact of centralized procurement in the...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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