IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> is a leading one-stop travel platform that currently operates through four leading travel brands which are Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com and Skyscanner. Trip.com passed its Hong Kong listing committee hearing and could raise up to $1-2 billion through a secondary listing, according to press reports. </p><p>Trip.com is braving choppy markets and waning investor enthusiasm on secondary listings/IPOs. The recent Hong Kong secondary listings of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/autohome-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20234:1" rel="noopener">Autohome Inc (Adr) (ATHM US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (BILI US)</a> are trading 3% and 8% above their H-share listing price, respectively. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a> is trading -13% below its H-share listing price largely due to the fallout from the fire sale at Archegos Capital.   </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Trip.com is a play on the expected reopening and recovery of travel in 2021 due to the global rollout of vaccines. In the post-pandemic world, Trip.com aims to cement its market share gains through strengthening its supply chain (such as short-distance travel), higher conversion via content investment (such as live streaming) and rising penetration in lower-tier cities (&gt;40% of new mobile app users in 2020 were from lower-tier cities). We think that Trip.com is an attractive play on travel recovery at the last close price. </p></div>

Trip.com (TCOM US) is a leading one-stop travel platform that currently operates through four leading travel brands which are Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com and Skyscanner. Trip.com passed its Hong Kong listing committee hearing and could raise up to $1-2 billion through a secondary listing, according to press reports. Trip.com is braving choppy markets and waning investor enthusiasm on secondary listings/IPOs. The recent Hong Kong secondary listings of Autohome Inc (Adr) (ATHM US) and Bilibili Inc (BILI US) are trading 3% and 8% above their H-share listing price, respectively. Baidu (BIDU US) is trading -13% below its H-share listing price largely due to the fallout from the fire sale at Archegos Capital.   Trip.com is a play on the expected reopening and recovery of travel in 2021 due to the global rollout of vaccines. In the post-pandemic world, Trip.com aims to cement its market share gains through strengthening its supply chain (such as short-distance travel), higher conversion via content investment (such as live streaming) and rising penetration in lower-tier cities (&gt;40% of new mobile app users in 2020 were from lower-tier cities). We think that Trip.com is an attractive play on travel recovery at the last close price. 

Trip.com Secondary Listing: No Heads in the Clouds

Zhihu Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhihu-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32185:1" rel="noopener">Zhihu Technology (ZH US)</a> is the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community and one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, both in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020, according to CIC.</p></div><div><p>Zhihu has priced its IPO at $9.50 per ADS which at the low-end of the IPO price range of $9.50-11.50 per ADS, according to press reports. At the final IPO price of $9.50 per share, Zhihu will have a market cap of $5.7 billion. Zhihu will also raise an additional $250 million in a concurrent private placement to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:446:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> and Lilith Games.</p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zhihu-ipo-initiation-question-time" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48928" rel="noopener">Zhihu IPO Initiation: Question Time</a>, we opined that as the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community, Zhihu is well-positioned to benefit from favourable industry trends. We concluded that Zhihu’s fundamentals are attractive. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/zhihu-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49410" rel="noopener">Zhihu IPO: Valuation Insights,</a> we noted that the IPO price range is attractive. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>However, since the launch of the IPO, a brutal sell-off on Chinese ADRs was triggered by SEC adopting measures that would kick foreign companies off US stock exchanges if they do not comply with US auditing standards. Despite the subsequent de-rating of peers, Zhihu remains attractive at the IPO price. Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of $12.35 per ADS. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis points to a meaningful upside based on securing a modest share of the addressable market. </p></div></div></div>

Zhihu Technology (ZH US) is the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community and one of the top five comprehensive online content communities in China, both in terms of average mobile MAUs and revenue in 2020, according to CIC.Zhihu has priced its IPO at $9.50 per ADS which at the low-end of the IPO price range of $9.50-11.50 per ADS, according to press reports. At the final IPO price of $9.50 per share, Zhihu will have a market cap of $5.7 billion. Zhihu will also raise an additional $250 million in a concurrent private placement to Alibaba Group (BABA US), JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US), Tencent Holdings (700 HK) and Lilith Games.In Zhihu IPO Initiation: Question Time, we opined that as the largest Q&amp;A-inspired online community, Zhihu is well-positioned to benefit from favourable industry trends. We concluded that Zhihu’s fundamentals are attractive. In Zhihu IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that the IPO price range is attractive. However, since the launch of the IPO, a brutal sell-off on Chinese ADRs was triggered by SEC adopting measures that would kick foreign companies off US stock exchanges if they do not comply with US auditing standards. Despite the subsequent de-rating of peers, Zhihu remains attractive at the IPO price. Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of $12.35 per ADS. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis points to a meaningful upside based on securing a modest share of the addressable market. 

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a> raised around US$3bn in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.</p><p>We have covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier notes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/baidu-secondary-listing-early-look-will-be-one-of-the-largest-secondary-listings-this-year" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Baidu Secondary Listing Early Look - Will Be One of the Largest Secondary Listings This Year</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/baidu-secondary-listing-smaller-than-expected-doing-the-bare-minimum" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Baidu Secondary Listing - Smaller than Expected, Doing the Bare Minimum</a>.</p><p>In this note, we'll talk about the trading dynamics.</p>

Baidu (BIDU US) raised around US$3bn in its secondary listing in Hong Kong.We have covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier notes, Baidu Secondary Listing Early Look - Will Be One of the Largest Secondary Listings This Year and Baidu Secondary Listing - Smaller than Expected, Doing the Bare Minimum.In this note, we'll talk about the trading dynamics.

Baidu Secondary Listing Trading - Strong Demand but Weak Price Action

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (BILI US)</a> is a Chinese online video platform themed around anime, manga, and game fandom and targeted at the young generations in China. Bilibili ranked top five in terms of brand awareness in Gen Z+ users among video-centric platforms in China in 2020, according to iResearch. Bilibili passed its Hong Kong listing committee hearing and could raise up to $3 billion through a secondary listing, according to press reports. </p><p>Bilibili’s focus on Gen Z+ users allows it to benefit from their growing consumption needs in conjunction with their increasing spending power. Bilibili is one of the fastest-growing major Chinese internet companies. The revenue growth is increasingly fuelled by the creation of more consumption scenarios and higher paying user conversion. Largely due to the high growth narrative, Bilibili gets a free pass from investors on the widening losses and FCF burn. Nevertheless, Bilibili’s ambition is to deliver operating leverage and FCF generation over the medium-term, which is reflected in consensus estimates. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Overall, Bilibili has made great strides in expanding its user base (Gen Z to Gen Z+) and subsequently monetising this expanded user base through the diversification of its revenue streams and lowering its reliance on key games titles. The top-line metrics are strong, and the bottom-line metrics will likely improve in the medium term, in our view. Overall, we believe that Bilibili is fairly valued at the last close, and would look at any share price weakness to add/build a position. </p></div>

Bilibili Inc (BILI US) is a Chinese online video platform themed around anime, manga, and game fandom and targeted at the young generations in China. Bilibili ranked top five in terms of brand awareness in Gen Z+ users among video-centric platforms in China in 2020, according to iResearch. Bilibili passed its Hong Kong listing committee hearing and could raise up to $3 billion through a secondary listing, according to press reports. Bilibili’s focus on Gen Z+ users allows it to benefit from their growing consumption needs in conjunction with their increasing spending power. Bilibili is one of the fastest-growing major Chinese internet companies. The revenue growth is increasingly fuelled by the creation of more consumption scenarios and higher paying user conversion. Largely due to the high growth narrative, Bilibili gets a free pass from investors on the widening losses and FCF burn. Nevertheless, Bilibili’s ambition is to deliver operating leverage and FCF generation over the medium-term, which is reflected in consensus estimates. Overall, Bilibili has made great strides in expanding its user base (Gen Z to Gen Z+) and subsequently monetising this expanded user base through the diversification of its revenue streams and lowering its reliance on key games titles. The top-line metrics are strong, and the bottom-line metrics will likely improve in the medium term, in our view. Overall, we believe that Bilibili is fairly valued at the last close, and would look at any share price weakness to add/build a position. 

Bilibili Secondary Listing: A Big-Sum Game

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a> launched a $3 billion secondary listing in Hong Kong last Thursday evening. Bookbuilding is scheduled to run until the pricing on 17 March. The secondary listing has received good early demand with the books covered on the first day, according to press reports. The H-shares will begin trading on 23 March. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/baidu-secondary-listing-searching-for-the-next-big-thing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49043" rel="noopener">Baidu Secondary Listing: Searching for the Next Big Thing</a>, we outlined our views on Baidu’ fundamentals and valuation. Baidu is making great strides in expanding its total addressable market (TAM) through ongoing investments. In combination with the potential valuation upside to the last close price (based on SoTP), we concluded that the equity story is attractive. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>In this note, we will look at Baidu’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount). Baidu will price its H-shares at a discount to its ADSs to entice investors to participate in the secondary listing. However, market conditions remain volatile and there remains a possibility of a renewed global equity sell-off. Consequently, Baidu will likely price its H-shares at a wider discount than the median HK-ADS discount of previous secondary listings. Overall, Baidu pricing its H-shares at a discount range of 3% to 4% to its ADSs will be reasonable.</p></div>

Baidu (BIDU US) launched a $3 billion secondary listing in Hong Kong last Thursday evening. Bookbuilding is scheduled to run until the pricing on 17 March. The secondary listing has received good early demand with the books covered on the first day, according to press reports. The H-shares will begin trading on 23 March. In Baidu Secondary Listing: Searching for the Next Big Thing, we outlined our views on Baidu’ fundamentals and valuation. Baidu is making great strides in expanding its total addressable market (TAM) through ongoing investments. In combination with the potential valuation upside to the last close price (based on SoTP), we concluded that the equity story is attractive. In this note, we will look at Baidu’s potential HK-ADS premium/(discount). Baidu will price its H-shares at a discount to its ADSs to entice investors to participate in the secondary listing. However, market conditions remain volatile and there remains a possibility of a renewed global equity sell-off. Consequently, Baidu will likely price its H-shares at a wider discount than the median HK-ADS discount of previous secondary listings. Overall, Baidu pricing its H-shares at a discount range of 3% to 4% to its ADSs will be reasonable.

Baidu Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/​(Discount) Views

China

Autohome Inc is an online destination for automobile consumers in China.  The Company delivers comprehensive, independent and interactive content to automobile buyers and owners.

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Autohome Inc (Adr) (ATHM US)

Trip.com Secondary Listing: No Heads in the Clouds

Trip.com passed its HKEx listing hearing to raise up to $1-2bn through a secondary listing. We think that Trip.com is an attractive play on travel...

Arun George

Zhihu IPO: Trading Debut

Zhihu has priced its IPO at $9.50 per ADS which at the low-end of the IPO price range, according to press reports. Despite the recent de-rating of...

Arun George

Baidu Secondary Listing Trading - Strong Demand but Weak Price Action

Baidu (BIDU US) raised around US$3bn in its secondary listing in Hong Kong. In this note, we'll talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Bilibili Secondary Listing: A Big-Sum Game

Bilibili could raise up to $3 bn through a secondary listing, according to press reports. It is fairly valued at the last close and would look at...

Arun George

Baidu Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/(Discount) Views

Baidu has launched a $3 bn secondary listing in Hong Kong. Due to choppy market conditions, Baidu pricing its H-shares at a discount range of 3% to...

Arun George

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Trip.com Secondary Listing: No Heads in the Clouds

Trip.com passed its HKEx listing hearing to raise up to $1-2bn through a secondary listing. We think that Trip.com is an attractive play on travel...

Arun George

Zhihu IPO: Trading Debut

Zhihu has priced its IPO at $9.50 per ADS which at the low-end of the IPO price range, according to press reports. Despite the recent de-rating of...

Arun George

Baidu Secondary Listing Trading - Strong Demand but Weak Price Action

Baidu (BIDU US) raised around US$3bn in its secondary listing in Hong Kong. In this note, we'll talk about the trading dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Bilibili Secondary Listing: A Big-Sum Game

Bilibili could raise up to $3 bn through a secondary listing, according to press reports. It is fairly valued at the last close and would look at...

Arun George

Baidu Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/​(Discount) Views

Baidu has launched a $3 bn secondary listing in Hong Kong. Due to choppy market conditions, Baidu pricing its H-shares at a discount range of 3% to...

Arun George

Baidu Secondary Listing: HK-ADS Premium/(Discount) Views