Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Super Micro Computer / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing signs that this 2+ month consolidation in the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is ready to break out to the upside. Buy/stay long.</li>
<li>Part of that is the obvious; both the SPX and QQQ are breaking out to marginal new highs. </li>
<li>The other part that has kept us bullish this whole time is that market dynamics have remained risk-on, which we have discussed on a weekly basis.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing signs that this 2+ month consolidation in the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is ready to break out to the upside. Buy/stay long.
Part of that is the obvious; both the SPX and QQQ are breaking out to marginal new highs. 
The other part that has kept us bullish this whole time is that market dynamics have remained risk-on, which we have discussed on a weekly basis.


S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Breaking Out; Upside Resuming; DXY and Yields Forming Major Tops?

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish, and since late-December we have been suggesting to use the pullback as a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>Most recent/highest conviction "buy-the-dip" call came last week (1/14/25) amid all major indexes testing supports (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IJH, VXF, IWM, ARKK, SMH), bullish breadth divergences, other ongoing bullish signals.</li>
<li>Those dip buys are finally paying off, with all these indexes breaking out from 1+month consolidations. The SPX has gapped-up on four of past five trading days, indicating significant strength</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish, and since late-December we have been suggesting to use the pullback as a buying opportunity.
Most recent/highest conviction "buy-the-dip" call came last week (1/14/25) amid all major indexes testing supports (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IJH, VXF, IWM, ARKK, SMH), bullish breadth divergences, other ongoing bullish signals.
Those dip buys are finally paying off, with all these indexes breaking out from 1+month consolidations. The SPX has gapped-up on four of past five trading days, indicating significant strength


Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>AutoNation Inc.’s third-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings reflect a complex performance landscape, balancing several high points with notable operational challenges.</li><li>The company operates in a volatile industry environment, navigating economic headwinds while implementing strategies to ensure steady growth and sustained profitability.</li><li>AutoNation marked progress in new vehicle sales, showcasing a recovery in market share.</li></ul>

AutoNation Inc.’s third-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings reflect a complex performance landscape, balancing several high points with notable operational challenges.The company operates in a volatile industry environment, navigating economic headwinds while implementing strategies to ensure steady growth and sustained profitability.AutoNation marked progress in new vehicle sales, showcasing a recovery in market share.

AutoNation Inc.: Strategic Capital Allocation Driving Our Optimism! - Major Drivers

<ul><li>AutoNation's second quarter of 2024 experienced significant disruptions due to an outage at CDK, a key operational systems provider, which considerably affected their results.</li><li>Despite these challenges, AutoNation's CEO, Mike Manley, acknowledged that the quarter began positively, with new vehicle sales up by approximately 5% during April and May.</li><li>However, the CDK outage in June severely impacted multiple business operations, leading to a direct negative impact of about $1.55 per share on their quarterly results.</li></ul>

AutoNation's second quarter of 2024 experienced significant disruptions due to an outage at CDK, a key operational systems provider, which considerably affected their results.Despite these challenges, AutoNation's CEO, Mike Manley, acknowledged that the quarter began positively, with new vehicle sales up by approximately 5% during April and May.However, the CDK outage in June severely impacted multiple business operations, leading to a direct negative impact of about $1.55 per share on their quarterly results.

AutoNation Inc.: Diversification and Innovation in Financing Solutions Catalyzing Growth! - Major Drivers

AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Google's ad revenue growth consensus is 11.7% YoY in Q2, with some analysts projecting even higher, reflecting robust global digital ad spend trends.</li>
<li>Google Cloud's revenue reached $9.5 billion in Q1 2024, marking a 35% YoY increase and a 4x growth over the past four years. Q2 expected to see continued growth. </li>
<li>AI investments and innovations showcased at Google I/O aim to boost user experience and market leadership, with potential double-digit growth.</li>
</ul>


Google's ad revenue growth consensus is 11.7% YoY in Q2, with some analysts projecting even higher, reflecting robust global digital ad spend trends.
Google Cloud's revenue reached $9.5 billion in Q1 2024, marking a 35% YoY increase and a 4x growth over the past four years. Q2 expected to see continued growth. 
AI investments and innovations showcased at Google I/O aim to boost user experience and market leadership, with potential double-digit growth.


[Q2 Earnings Preview] Google: Ad Revenue & Cloud Growth Plus AI Advancements in Focus

United States

AutoNation, Inc. retails, finances, and services new and used vehicles.  The Company also provides other related services and products, such as the sale of parts and accessories, extended service contracts, aftermarket automotive products, and collision repair services.  AutoNation operates throughout the United States.

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Autonation Inc (AN US)

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Local Tops for 10-Year Treasury Yield, DXY, and Crude Oil; All Major Indexes Breaking Out. Bullish

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Vermilion Research

AutoNation Inc.: Strategic Capital Allocation Driving Our Optimism! - Major Drivers

AutoNation Inc.’s third-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings reflect a complex performance landscape, balancing several high points with notable...

Baptista Research

AutoNation Inc.: Diversification and Innovation in Financing Solutions Catalyzing Growth! - Major Drivers

AutoNation's second quarter of 2024 experienced significant disruptions due to an outage at CDK, a key operational systems provider, which...

Baptista Research

[Q2 Earnings Preview] Google: Ad Revenue & Cloud Growth Plus AI Advancements in Focus

Google's Q2 earnings on 23/Jul will focus on projected 11.7% ad revenue growth, cloud earnings & AI innovations. Key acquisitions highlight...

Mint Finance

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