Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Super Micro Computer, Inc. reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $10.2 billion, marking a 123% increase year-over-year but a 19% decline sequentially.</li><li>The quarter experienced a revenue shortfall primarily due to delays linked to customer site readiness and broader industry supply chain constraints, including shortages in CPUs, GPUs, memory, and SSDs. The company highlighted that several customer data center sites were not yet equipped with necessary power and networking infrastructure, causing deferred revenue expected to be recognized in upcoming quarters.</li><li>The backlog of orders remains at record highs, reflecting persistent demand, particularly driven by AI infrastructure, with AI GPU-related platforms accounting for over 80% of revenue.</li></ul>

Super Micro Computer, Inc. reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $10.2 billion, marking a 123% increase year-over-year but a 19% decline sequentially.The quarter experienced a revenue shortfall primarily due to delays linked to customer site readiness and broader industry supply chain constraints, including shortages in CPUs, GPUs, memory, and SSDs. The company highlighted that several customer data center sites were not yet equipped with necessary power and networking infrastructure, causing deferred revenue expected to be recognized in upcoming quarters.The backlog of orders remains at record highs, reflecting persistent demand, particularly driven by AI infrastructure, with AI GPU-related platforms accounting for over 80% of revenue.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Sees AI Platforms Exceed 80% Of Revenue; What's Next?

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>SMCI’s cash conversion cycle has blown out to roughly 149 days, trapping $12.9B across accounts receivable and inventory while forcing a heavy reliance on external debt.</li>
<li>Q4 guidance points to sequential recovery, but EPS signals severe margin compression. SMCI's cost structure is trapped beneath a 10% gross margin ceiling and a $64M quarterly interest burden.</li>
<li>The DOJ indictment involving $2.5B in alleged illegal AI server sales by SMCI-associated individuals introduces a critical overhang, with the company's SEC filings warning of potential impacts to prior-period results.</li>
</ul>


SMCI’s cash conversion cycle has blown out to roughly 149 days, trapping $12.9B across accounts receivable and inventory while forcing a heavy reliance on external debt.
Q4 guidance points to sequential recovery, but EPS signals severe margin compression. SMCI's cost structure is trapped beneath a 10% gross margin ceiling and a $64M quarterly interest burden.
The DOJ indictment involving $2.5B in alleged illegal AI server sales by SMCI-associated individuals introduces a critical overhang, with the company's SEC filings warning of potential impacts to prior-period results.


SMCI Q3 Teardown: Growth but at What Cost?

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>After our global server market model update, we see 3Q23 server market decline and data center vendors' capex cut not consistent with Nvidia's robust y/y sales growth of over 200%;</li>
<li>Discrepancy: 1. Nvidia gaining value on AI server, losing zero on non AI; 2. AI servers grow at the expenses of non AI; 3. most vendors not only in server;</li>
<li>Different from  consensus view, we expect general (non AI) server market to decline 16% y/y in 2024 and 29% in 2025 and suggest to avoid general server supply chain vendors.</li>
</ul>


After our global server market model update, we see 3Q23 server market decline and data center vendors' capex cut not consistent with Nvidia's robust y/y sales growth of over 200%;
Discrepancy: 1. Nvidia gaining value on AI server, losing zero on non AI; 2. AI servers grow at the expenses of non AI; 3. most vendors not only in server;
Different from  consensus view, we expect general (non AI) server market to decline 16% y/y in 2024 and 29% in 2025 and suggest to avoid general server supply chain vendors.


What to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025?

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>3Q25 (Oct-25) 5% above Consensus, Hopper growing incl H200, no Blackwell revenue. 4Q25 (Jan-25) guidance inline with Consensus but Nvidia has beat guidance for 8 quarters.</li>
<li>Jan-25: Blackwell revenue “several billion dollars”. Supply keeps to increase but supply constraints. GM will moderate to low-70% during Blackwell ramp due  but will stabilize at mid-70%.</li>
<li>The stock is not expensive, trading at its average multiples since 2019: 51x trailing EPS, 34x forward EPS. These multiples are high in an absolute sense, but average for NVDA.</li>
</ul>


3Q25 (Oct-25) 5% above Consensus, Hopper growing incl H200, no Blackwell revenue. 4Q25 (Jan-25) guidance inline with Consensus but Nvidia has beat guidance for 8 quarters.
Jan-25: Blackwell revenue “several billion dollars”. Supply keeps to increase but supply constraints. GM will moderate to low-70% during Blackwell ramp due  but will stabilize at mid-70%.
The stock is not expensive, trading at its average multiples since 2019: 51x trailing EPS, 34x forward EPS. These multiples are high in an absolute sense, but average for NVDA.


Nvidia: Maybe a Few Short-Term Concerns but Blackwell Looks like a Step Function Upwards

<ul>
<li>Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.</li>
<li>TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.</li>
<li>We attribute Nvidia customers' sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.</li>
</ul>


Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.
TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.
We attribute Nvidia customers' sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.


From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

United States

Super Micro Computer, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures and sells server solutions based on modular and open-standard x86 architecture. The Company's products include servers, motherboards, chassis, and accessories.

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Super Micro Computer (SMCI US)

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Sees AI Platforms Exceed 80% Of Revenue; What's Next?

Super Micro Computer, Inc. reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $10.2 billion, marking a 123% increase year-over-year but a 19% decline...

Baptista Research

SMCI Q3 Teardown: Growth but at What Cost?

SMCI faces cash flow challenges, heavy debt reliance, margin compression, and potential legal impacts from DOJ indictment on alleged illegal sales.

Mint Finance

What to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025?

Names to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025? Different from consensus, we expect non AI server market...

Andrew Lu

Nvidia: Maybe a Few Short-Term Concerns but Blackwell Looks like a Step Function Upwards

Nvidia beats 3Q25 guidance. 4Q25: Blackwell revenue several billions. Blackwell is the product driving revenues up by a step function higher. The...

Nicolas Baratte

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories? Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news already factored into the share price. We...

Andrew Lu

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Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Sees AI Platforms Exceed 80% Of Revenue; What's Next?

Super Micro Computer, Inc. reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $10.2 billion, marking a 123% increase year-over-year but a 19% decline...

Baptista Research

SMCI Q3 Teardown: Growth but at What Cost?

​SMCI faces cash flow challenges, heavy debt reliance, margin compression, and potential legal impacts from DOJ indictment on alleged illegal sales.

Mint Finance

What to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025?

Names to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025? Different from consensus, we expect non AI server market...

Andrew Lu

Nvidia: Maybe a Few Short-Term Concerns but Blackwell Looks like a Step Function Upwards

​Nvidia beats 3Q25 guidance. 4Q25: Blackwell revenue several billions. Blackwell is the product driving revenues up by a step function higher. The...

Nicolas Baratte

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories? Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news already factored into the share price. We...

Andrew Lu

SMCI faces cash flow challenges, heavy debt reliance, margin compression, and potential legal impacts from DOJ indictment on alleged illegal sales.

Nvidia beats 3Q25 guidance. 4Q25: Blackwell revenue several billions. Blackwell is the product driving revenues up by a step function higher. The...