Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last month, wealth manager <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a>  <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20241213/pdf/06clql94x0mq9g.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> - and subsequently <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20241218/pdf/06csc82ywrpv6c.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rejected</a> - a A$4.00/share non-binding and indicative proposal from PE outfit Bain Capital.</li>
<li>The question was whether Bain returned to the well, in a space where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regal-partners-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29119:1" rel="noopener">Regal (RPL AU)</a> recently binned its <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/platinum-asset-management" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:914:1" rel="noopener">Platinum (PTM AU)</a> tie-in; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual (PPT AU)</a>'s carve-out has hit a snag. </li>
<li>Roughly two weeks after that Bain rejection, US-based asset investment manager CC Capital Partners has now tabled a A$4.30/share, in cash, non-binding Offer. That's probably enough for Insignia to engage. </li>
</ul>


Last month, wealth manager Insignia Financial (IFL AU)  announced - and subsequently rejected - a A$4.00/share non-binding and indicative proposal from PE outfit Bain Capital.
The question was whether Bain returned to the well, in a space where Regal (RPL AU) recently binned its Platinum (PTM AU) tie-in; and Perpetual (PPT AU)'s carve-out has hit a snag. 
Roughly two weeks after that Bain rejection, US-based asset investment manager CC Capital Partners has now tabled a A$4.30/share, in cash, non-binding Offer. That's probably enough for Insignia to engage. 


Insignia Financial (IFL AU): CC Capital Wades In With A $4.30/Share NBIO

<ul>
<li>On the 16th October, Li Ning-backed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/viva-goods-company-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15864:1" rel="noopener">Viva Goods (933 HK)</a>  <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1016/2024101601240.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced </a>a scrip Offer, by way of a Scheme, for 62.91%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bossini-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4085:1" rel="noopener">Bossini International Holdings (592 HK)</a>, a casual apparel play.</li>
<li>One new Viva share for five Bossini shares backed an implied scrip price of HK$0.108/share, a 12.2% discount to undisturbed. </li>
<li>Bossini's Scheme Doc is now <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0102/2025010203503.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>, with a Court Meeting on the 10th February, and expected  settlement on the 24th March. The IFA says "fair and reasonable". </li>
</ul>


On the 16th October, Li Ning-backed Viva Goods (933 HK)  announced a scrip Offer, by way of a Scheme, for 62.91%-held Bossini International Holdings (592 HK), a casual apparel play.
One new Viva share for five Bossini shares backed an implied scrip price of HK$0.108/share, a 12.2% discount to undisturbed. 
Bossini's Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 10th February, and expected  settlement on the 24th March. The IFA says "fair and reasonable". 


<ul>
<li>On the 5th November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/get-nice-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16415:1" rel="noopener">Get Nice Holdings (64 HK)</a> (GNH) <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1105/2024110501858.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a scrip Offer, by way of a Scheme, for 72.99%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/get-nice-financial-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29667:1" rel="noopener">Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK)</a> (GNF).</li>
<li>With an implied scrip price &amp; divvy of HK$1.116/share, against a book value of HK1.736/share - and net cash of ~HK$1.00/share - this is probably being down too cheaply.</li>
<li>GNH's Circular is now <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0102/2025010203495.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>, with an EGM to be held on the 22nd Jan. GNF's Scheme Doc is expected to be dispatched one or before the 10th Feb. </li>
</ul>


On the 5th November, Get Nice Holdings (64 HK) (GNH) announced a scrip Offer, by way of a Scheme, for 72.99%-held Get Nice Financial Group Ltd (1469 HK) (GNF).
With an implied scrip price &amp; divvy of HK$1.116/share, against a book value of HK1.736/share - and net cash of ~HK$1.00/share - this is probably being down too cheaply.
GNH's Circular is now out, with an EGM to be held on the 22nd Jan. GNF's Scheme Doc is expected to be dispatched one or before the 10th Feb. 


Get Nice Financial (1469 HK): EGM Set For Get Nice (64 HK)'s Scrip Offer

<ul>
<li>For the month of December 2024, 13 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$16bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in December was ~46%. The average premium in 2024 was ~43%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of December 2024, 13 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$16bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in December was ~46%. The average premium in 2024 was ~43%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Dec 2024: De Grey, Insignia, ESR Group, Fosun Tourism, HKBN, Pentamaster, Beenos

Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In the UK, once a Bidder is named in a possible offer announcement, the Bidder has 28 days to either announce a firm Offer intention or walk away. </li>
<li>This is known as a 'put up or shut up' or 'PUSU' deadline. Hong Kong's takeover rules has no such provision.</li>
<li>It's ~21 weeks since co-founders Jeff Bi and Gang Hong tabled a non-binding Offer. With no firm Offer in sight, AND contesting a SAMR ruling, they should fold their tent.</li>
</ul>


In the UK, once a Bidder is named in a possible offer announcement, the Bidder has 28 days to either announce a firm Offer intention or walk away. 
This is known as a 'put up or shut up' or 'PUSU' deadline. Hong Kong's takeover rules has no such provision.
It's ~21 weeks since co-founders Jeff Bi and Gang Hong tabled a non-binding Offer. With no firm Offer in sight, AND contesting a SAMR ruling, they should fold their tent.


GAPack (468 HK): Hong Kong's Takeovers Code Needs A PUSU Rule

Singapore

Avarga Limited is an investment holding company with core businesses in paper manufacturing, power generation, and building materials distribution. It produces industrial-grade paper products and distributes various building materials. The company also operates a gas-fired power plant. Avarga Limited was incorporated in 1967 and is headquartered in Singapore.

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Avarga (AVARGA SP)

Bossini (592 HK): 10th Feb Scheme Vote

The spread is there and Viva is shortable. Not sure if you can take down borrow cheaply. Otherwise, this is an avoid. Viva is trading rich. It may...

David Blennerhassett

Get Nice Financial (1469 HK): EGM Set For Get Nice (64 HK)'s Scrip Offer

The more interesting bet is GNH (64 HK) at a 74% discount to NAV and 0.21x P/B, which will (should) be taken out next. That may be worth a punt.

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Dec 2024: De Grey, Insignia, ESR Group, Fosun Tourism, HKBN, Pentamaster, Beenos

For Dec 2024, 13 new transactions were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$16bn. The Dec average premium for these new...

David Blennerhassett

GAPack (468 HK): Hong Kong's Takeovers Code Needs A PUSU Rule

It's ~21 weeks since co-founders Jeff Bi and Gang Hong tabled a non-binding Offer. With no firm Offer in sight, AND contesting a SAMR ruling, they...

David Blennerhassett

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Insignia Financial (IFL AU): CC Capital Wades In With A $4.30/Share NBIO

Terms are non-binding. I think IFL should engage here. However, I'm not confident Tanarra is willing to kick out at a 7.5% premium to Bain's terms.

David Blennerhassett

Bossini (592 HK): 10th Feb Scheme Vote

The spread is there and Viva is shortable. Not sure if you can take down borrow cheaply. Otherwise, this is an avoid. Viva is trading rich. It may...

David Blennerhassett

Get Nice Financial (1469 HK): EGM Set For Get Nice (64 HK)'s Scrip Offer

The more interesting bet is GNH (64 HK) at a 74% discount to NAV and 0.21x P/B, which will (should) be taken out next. That may be worth a punt.

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Dec 2024: De Grey, Insignia, ESR Group, Fosun Tourism, HKBN, Pentamaster, Beenos

For Dec 2024, 13 new transactions were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$16bn. The Dec average premium for these new...

David Blennerhassett

GAPack (468 HK): Hong Kong's Takeovers Code Needs A PUSU Rule

It's ~21 weeks since co-founders Jeff Bi and Gang Hong tabled a non-binding Offer. With no firm Offer in sight, AND contesting a SAMR ruling, they...

David Blennerhassett