Independent Research, Turtles all the way down

Turtles all the way down

Independent Research

Writing short articles about mis-priced boring stocks around the world.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li><p>Look at the last 100 years, and things are not so different. War, large inflation and pandemics were things that happened periodically.</p></li><li>A lot of stocks that have run up are still trading like we will return to the pre 2020 status quo soon</li><li>I don’t think that is the case. So I adjusted my portfolio significantly, and considering further adjustments</li></ul>

Look at the last 100 years, and things are not so different. War, large inflation and pandemics were things that happened periodically.A lot of stocks that have run up are still trading like we will return to the pre 2020 status quo soonI don’t think that is the case. So I adjusted my portfolio significantly, and considering further adjustments

Founder, BWS Financial Inc

Hamed Khorsand

Founder

Independent Stock Specific Research

BWS Financial Inc

BWS provides independent stock specific research focused on companies with distinct value that are going through a special situation where there is a tangible catalyst not priced in. The catalyst can be anything from new product, restructuring, M&A, management change, change in business strategy, etc. BWS’s focus is to understand the change and evaluate the potential return for investors.

BWS utilizes a self formed proprietary approach in discovering stocks by putting great emphasis on deep research. BWS does generate short recommendations following a similar criteria.

<ul>
<li>AVYA has exhausted investor patience in the Company's quest to transform into a subscription revenue business</li>
<li>Liquidity overtaking the conversation from ARR could have bigger impact to the stock price as investors try to assess the timing of when AVYA could generate free cash flow</li>
<li>AVYA reported fiscal second quarter revenue of $716 million below the Company's guidance and our $739 million estimate</li>
</ul>


AVYA has exhausted investor patience in the Company's quest to transform into a subscription revenue business
Liquidity overtaking the conversation from ARR could have bigger impact to the stock price as investors try to assess the timing of when AVYA could generate free cash flow
AVYA reported fiscal second quarter revenue of $716 million below the Company's guidance and our $739 million estimate


<ul>
<li>AVYA continues to face revenue recognition challenges from transitioning to a subscription revenue model. AVYA reported fiscal first quarter results missing expectations even though AVYA won a $400 million contract.</li>
<li>The issue at hand for AVYA is the ongoing transition is leading to its cash balance diminishing while management maintains a positive cash flow from operation outlook for the year.</li>
<li>AVYA reaffirmed its annual revenue guidance.  AVYA is projecting revenue in fiscal second quarter to jump back to a midpoint of $738 million, which is higher than our original estimate</li>
</ul>


AVYA continues to face revenue recognition challenges from transitioning to a subscription revenue model. AVYA reported fiscal first quarter results missing expectations even though AVYA won a $400 million contract.
The issue at hand for AVYA is the ongoing transition is leading to its cash balance diminishing while management maintains a positive cash flow from operation outlook for the year.
AVYA reaffirmed its annual revenue guidance.  AVYA is projecting revenue in fiscal second quarter to jump back to a midpoint of $738 million, which is higher than our original estimate


<ul>
<li>AVYA reported fiscal fourth quarter (September) results continuing its momentum of customers moving to Avaya One Cloud. </li>
<li>AVYA reported annual recurring revenue (“ARR”) of $530 million compared to ARR of $425 million in the June quarter</li>
<li>ARR is expected to nearly double to $1 billion by the end of the fiscal year from $530 million at the end of fiscal 2021</li>
</ul>


AVYA reported fiscal fourth quarter (September) results continuing its momentum of customers moving to Avaya One Cloud. 
AVYA reported annual recurring revenue (“ARR”) of $530 million compared to ARR of $425 million in the June quarter
ARR is expected to nearly double to $1 billion by the end of the fiscal year from $530 million at the end of fiscal 2021


<ul>
<li>AVYA is scheduled to report fiscal fourth quarter (September) results on November 22, 2021, with all eyes on how much the cloud business has grown.</li>
<li>During the calendar year 2021, cloud adoption had accelerated where AVYA pulled forward the timing of reaching $1 billion in ARR. This trend is to continue</li>
<li>ARR momentum would harm revenue line and push out free cash flow generation to late fiscal 2022. </li>
</ul>


AVYA is scheduled to report fiscal fourth quarter (September) results on November 22, 2021, with all eyes on how much the cloud business has grown.
During the calendar year 2021, cloud adoption had accelerated where AVYA pulled forward the timing of reaching $1 billion in ARR. This trend is to continue
ARR momentum would harm revenue line and push out free cash flow generation to late fiscal 2022. 


United States

Avaya Holdings Corp. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, Avaya, Inc. provides business collaboration and communications software solutions. The Company offers unified communications, contact centers, real-time video, and collaboration services. Avaya serves clients worldwide.

Avaya Holdings Corp (AVYA US)

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