Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EuroSTOXX Indices for the December 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>Including the addition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-ing-h-c-f-porsche-aktiengesellschaft" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36343:1" rel="noopener">Porsche AG (P911 GR)</a>, there could be around 7 ADDs/DELs during the December 2022 Rebalance. </li>
<li>In addition, there could be as many as five more intra-review changes before the end of the year.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EuroSTOXX Indices for the December 2022 Rebalance.
Including the addition of Porsche AG (P911 GR), there could be around 7 ADDs/DELs during the December 2022 Rebalance. 
In addition, there could be as many as five more intra-review changes before the end of the year.


STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: ~7 Regular ADDs/DELs & ~5 Intra-Review ADDs/DELs Possible

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>Schneider increased its cash offer by 4% to 3,225p/share, 47% premium, implied equity value of c.£9,863m and EV of £10,569m, 27.8x EV/Fwd EBIT. Schneider said the sweetened bid is final.</li>
<li>The deal seems dilutive for Schneider: it would mean an implied Fwd P/E of 31.4x vs. 18.7x for Schneider and should increase Schneider's debt leverage to 1.9x.</li>
<li>The increased offer had been anticipated as the spread had been positive since the offer announcement. Gross spread has now turned negative and is -1.91% (including dividend) as of 14 November. Long.</li>
</ul>


Schneider increased its cash offer by 4% to 3,225p/share, 47% premium, implied equity value of c.£9,863m and EV of £10,569m, 27.8x EV/Fwd EBIT. Schneider said the sweetened bid is final.
The deal seems dilutive for Schneider: it would mean an implied Fwd P/E of 31.4x vs. 18.7x for Schneider and should increase Schneider's debt leverage to 1.9x.
The increased offer had been anticipated as the spread had been positive since the offer announcement. Gross spread has now turned negative and is -1.91% (including dividend) as of 14 November. Long.


<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EuroSTOXX Indices for the December 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>I expect at least two STOXX Europe 600 constituents involved in M&amp;A deals to get deleted in November 2022. There could be more in December 2022.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dr-ing-h-c-f-porsche-aktiengesellschaft" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36343:1" rel="noopener">Porsche AG (P911 GR)</a> is currently the highest ranked non-constituent and is leading the race to become an intra-review add in November 2022.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EuroSTOXX Indices for the December 2022 Rebalance.
I expect at least two STOXX Europe 600 constituents involved in M&amp;A deals to get deleted in November 2022. There could be more in December 2022.

Porsche AG (P911 GR) is currently the highest ranked non-constituent and is leading the race to become an intra-review add in November 2022.


STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Two Intra-Review Changes & Porsche Addition Likely In Nov

<ul>
<li>Davidson Kempner and others may seek an improved offer of up to 3,500p/share, 29.7x EV/Fwd EBIT, in line with Ideagen's acquisition multiples. Gross spread is +2.38%.</li>
<li>Assuming AVEVA can reach 2018a 34.7% EBITDA margins and increase revenues, the offer price would seem cheap. An increase to 3,300p seems feasible, £4,073 million, similar to the Bridge Facility.</li>
<li>Current net debt/EBITDA is 1.3x and EBIT/interest is 33.6x, so it could comfortably take on that additional debt. At 3,300p, proforma net debt/EBITDA would be 1.9x, before adding any synergies.</li>
</ul>


Davidson Kempner and others may seek an improved offer of up to 3,500p/share, 29.7x EV/Fwd EBIT, in line with Ideagen's acquisition multiples. Gross spread is +2.38%.
Assuming AVEVA can reach 2018a 34.7% EBITDA margins and increase revenues, the offer price would seem cheap. An increase to 3,300p seems feasible, £4,073 million, similar to the Bridge Facility.
Current net debt/EBITDA is 1.3x and EBIT/interest is 33.6x, so it could comfortably take on that additional debt. At 3,300p, proforma net debt/EBITDA would be 1.9x, before adding any synergies.


Schneider Electric/​Aveva: Potential Offer Price Sweetening

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EuroSTOXX Indices for the December 2022 Rebalance.</li>
<li>There could be five M&amp;A-related intra-review deletions between now and the end of the year.</li>
<li>There could be more index changes in the December 2022 Rebalance too. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STOXX Europe 600 and EuroSTOXX Indices for the December 2022 Rebalance.
There could be five M&amp;A-related intra-review deletions between now and the end of the year.
There could be more index changes in the December 2022 Rebalance too. 


STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Five Intra-Review Changes, Porsche Leading The Race

United Kingdom

AVEVA Group PLC, a holding company, markets and develops computer software and services for engineering and related solutions.

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AVEVA Group PLC (AVV LN)

STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: ~7 Regular ADDs/DELs & ~5 Intra-Review ADDs/DELs Possible

I expect the top ranked Potential ADDs to outperform the top ranked Potential DELs until the official Rebalance results are confirmed at the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Schneider Electric Sweetens AVEVA Bid

Schneider increased its cash offer by 4% to a final 3,225p/share, which represents an implied equity value of c. £9,863 million and an EV of...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Two Intra-Review Changes & Porsche Addition Likely In Nov

Between now and the end of the year, there could up to 14 constituent changes in the STOXX Europe 600 index including 5 intra review changes....

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Schneider Electric/Aveva: Potential Offer Price Sweetening

Hedge fund Davidson Kempner Capital Management is building a stake in Aveva (currently 3.5%) and will join others in pushing Schneider Electric...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Five Intra-Review Changes, Porsche Leading The Race

I expect ~12 ADDs/DELs in total for the STOXX Europe 600 index before the end of the year including intra-review changes and regular review...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: ~7 Regular ADDs/DELs & ~5 Intra-Review ADDs/DELs Possible

I expect the top ranked Potential ADDs to outperform the top ranked Potential DELs until the official Rebalance results are confirmed at the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Schneider Electric Sweetens AVEVA Bid

Schneider increased its cash offer by 4% to a final 3,225p/share, which represents an implied equity value of c. £9,863 million and an EV of...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Two Intra-Review Changes & Porsche Addition Likely In Nov

Between now and the end of the year, there could up to 14 constituent changes in the STOXX Europe 600 index including 5 intra review changes....

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Schneider Electric/​Aveva: Potential Offer Price Sweetening

Hedge fund Davidson Kempner Capital Management is building a stake in Aveva (currently 3.5%) and will join others in pushing Schneider Electric...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

STOXX Europe Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Five Intra-Review Changes, Porsche Leading The Race

I expect ~12 ADDs/DELs in total for the STOXX Europe 600 index before the end of the year including intra-review changes and regular review...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Schneider Electric/Aveva: Potential Offer Price Sweetening