Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are three constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> at the March rebalance. One inclusion and one non-inclusion are surprises.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 2.9% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 4,075m with over 2.5x ADV to trade on all constituent changes.</li>
<li>The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last few months with a jump in the last few trading sessions. There could be more outperformance over the next two weeks.</li>
</ul>


There are three constituent changes for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) at the March rebalance. One inclusion and one non-inclusion are surprises.
One way turnover is estimated at 2.9% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 4,075m with over 2.5x ADV to trade on all constituent changes.
The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last few months with a jump in the last few trading sessions. There could be more outperformance over the next two weeks.


STAR50 Index Rebalance: Three Changes a Side; One Surprise Change

Suzhou Novosense Microelectron / Index Rebalance

Suzhou Novosense Microelectron (688052 CH)

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance ended 31 January. We expect the changes to be announced 23 February with the implementation taking place after the close on 8 March.</li>
<li>We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history resulting in three changes to the index.</li>
<li>The potential inclusions have dropped but there has been significant outperformance versus the potential deletions. That could continue as positioning continues for the high expected impact on the stocks.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance ended 31 January. We expect the changes to be announced 23 February with the implementation taking place after the close on 8 March.
We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history resulting in three changes to the index.
The potential inclusions have dropped but there has been significant outperformance versus the potential deletions. That could continue as positioning continues for the high expected impact on the stocks.


STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Sustaining Outperformance on Expected Impact

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance ends 31 January. We expect the changes to be announced 23 February with the implementation taking place after the close on 8 March.</li>
<li>We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history resulting in four changes to the index.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 3.3% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 4,717m. The impact on the deletions will be much larger than that on the inclusions.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance ends 31 January. We expect the changes to be announced 23 February with the implementation taking place after the close on 8 March.
We expect the index committee to continue using a 6-month minimum listing history resulting in four changes to the index.
One way turnover is estimated at 3.3% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 4,717m. The impact on the deletions will be much larger than that on the inclusions.


STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four High Impact Changes in March

Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical / Index Rebalance

Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical (688506 CH)

<ul>
<li>As expected, the index committee has used a 6-month minimum listing history and that results in one change to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> in December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-biokin-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40027:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical (688506 CH)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ninebot-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32180:1" rel="noopener">Ninebot (689009 CH)</a> in the index at the close on 8 December.</li>
<li>One way turnover is estimated at 2.18% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 3,065m. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-biokin-pharmaceutical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40027:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical (688506 CH)</a> has moved up and there will be pre-positioning.</li>
</ul>


As expected, the index committee has used a 6-month minimum listing history and that results in one change to the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) in December.

Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical (688506 CH) will replace Ninebot (689009 CH) in the index at the close on 8 December.
One way turnover is estimated at 2.18% and will result in a one-way trade of CNY 3,065m. Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical (688506 CH) has moved up and there will be pre-positioning.


STAR50 Index Rebalance: Big Impact Expected; Inclusion Up 40% in One Month

<ul>
<li>With the review period complete, we expect one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> in December if the index committee continues to use a 6-month minimum listing history.</li>
<li>With net inflows to mainland China ETFs over the last few months, passive trackers will need to trade between 9-25 days of ADV on the potential add and delete.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31062:1" rel="noopener">SMIC (688981 CH)</a> will be capped and there will be reverse funding flows on the index constituents. One-way turnover is estimated at 1.8% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY2,580m.</li>
</ul>


With the review period complete, we expect one change for the STAR50 INDEX in December if the index committee continues to use a 6-month minimum listing history.
With net inflows to mainland China ETFs over the last few months, passive trackers will need to trade between 9-25 days of ADV on the potential add and delete.

SMIC (688981 CH) will be capped and there will be reverse funding flows on the index constituents. One-way turnover is estimated at 1.8% resulting in a one-way trade of CNY2,580m.


STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact Expected on the Changes

China

AVIC (Chengdu) UAS Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and distributes UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) systems and products. The Company produces large fixed-wing long-endurance drones and provides related technical services. AVIC (Chengdu) UAS markets its products across worldwide.

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AVIC (Chengdu) UAS Co Ltd (688297 CH)

STAR50 Index Rebalance: Three Changes a Side; One Surprise Change

There are 3 changes for the STAR50 in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.9% resulting in a 1-way trade of CNY 4.08bn with over 2.5x ADV to...

Brian Freitas

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Sustaining Outperformance on Expected Impact

There could be 3 changes for the STAR50 Index in March. One-way turnover is estimated at 2.4% leading to a one-way trade of CNY 2.9bn. The...

Brian Freitas

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Four High Impact Changes in March

There could be 4 changes for the STAR50 Index in March. Passive trackers will need to trade between 1.2-9.7x ADV on the adds/dels. There will be...

Brian Freitas

STAR50 Index Rebalance: Big Impact Expected; Inclusion Up 40% in One Month

There is 1 change for the index resulting in 1-way turnover of 2.18% and 1-way trade of CNY3.07bn. The add is up 40% over the last month and there...

Brian Freitas

STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Impact Expected on the Changes

There could be 1 index change in Dec. The ETF inflows over the last few months results in passives needing to trade 9-25x ADV on the add/delete....

Brian Freitas

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