HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Based on 25Q2 sales data of Semaglutide and Tirzepatide, the penetration rate of both T2D and weight loss indications is approaching ceiling. The inflection point of GLP-1 market has arrived.</li>
<li>When the gap of clinical progress in EU/US markets is too large, these drugs may not even be on the same tier, and thus do not constitute substantive competition.</li>
<li>Novartis has approached Avidity Biosciences with an acquisition offer. We think price range of $9-11B is justified by 3-5x peak sales multiples and strategic urgency.</li>
</ul>


Based on 25Q2 sales data of Semaglutide and Tirzepatide, the penetration rate of both T2D and weight loss indications is approaching ceiling. The inflection point of GLP-1 market has arrived.
When the gap of clinical progress in EU/US markets is too large, these drugs may not even be on the same tier, and thus do not constitute substantive competition.
Novartis has approached Avidity Biosciences with an acquisition offer. We think price range of $9-11B is justified by 3-5x peak sales multiples and strategic urgency.


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.17) - GLP-1s Inflection Point, Novartis to Acquire Avidity Biosciences

Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing, Stock Spin-Off Investing

Richard Howe

Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing

Stock Spin-Off Investing

Generate attractive returns by taking advantage of inefficiencies in the stock spin-off market.

Stock Spin-offs

Event-Driven

<ul><li>The range of ideas is broad. The smallest market cap is a $15MM Canadian micro-cap that is trading below its net cash, and the largest is an $25BN market cap online travel company that is gobbling up its own shares.</li><li>We have ideas profiled from Poland, Canada, India, Austria, Argentina, Italy, and of course, the United States.</li><li>The report will start with my personal favorite idea and then cover the additional ideas in alphabetical order.</li></ul>

The range of ideas is broad. The smallest market cap is a $15MM Canadian micro-cap that is trading below its net cash, and the largest is an $25BN market cap online travel company that is gobbling up its own shares.We have ideas profiled from Poland, Canada, India, Austria, Argentina, Italy, and of course, the United States.The report will start with my personal favorite idea and then cover the additional ideas in alphabetical order.

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In this report we analyzed data from technical publications to review leadership in RNA related therapeutics. We have listed the top thirty.</li>
<li>In terms of quantity and quality of innovations <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alnylam-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2191:1" rel="noopener">Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moderna-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28744:1" rel="noopener">Moderna (MRNA US)</a>  are best positioned. Among private companies Senda Biosciences screened well. </li>
<li>Partnerships and acquisitions  between RNA startups and big pharma as well as between big pharma and big pharma highlight RNA's potential versatility, risks and the necessity for RNA related exposure.</li>
</ul>


In this report we analyzed data from technical publications to review leadership in RNA related therapeutics. We have listed the top thirty.
In terms of quantity and quality of innovations Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US)  and Moderna (MRNA US)  are best positioned. Among private companies Senda Biosciences screened well. 
Partnerships and acquisitions  between RNA startups and big pharma as well as between big pharma and big pharma highlight RNA's potential versatility, risks and the necessity for RNA related exposure.


Who Are Leading the Charge in the RNAissance of Medicine

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Rex American Resources / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX is above 6028-6059. Short-term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059.</li>
<li>SPX is testing 6400-6410 now, but QQQ and IWM are violating short-term supports at $572 and $226, respectively. This makes us believe we could see some near-term downside; buy pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX is above 6028-6059. Short-term supports on SPX include 6400-6410, 6200, 6100-6150, and 6028-6059.
SPX is testing 6400-6410 now, but QQQ and IWM are violating short-term supports at $572 and $226, respectively. This makes us believe we could see some near-term downside; buy pullbacks.


Staying Bullish Despite Near-Term Pullback Potential; Buy Pullbacks

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

<ul><li>Pharma benefited from some defensive sector rotation, led by the big obesity duo, LLY and NVO, ahead of this week’s major diabetes conference (ADA 2025).</li><li>Vaccine concerns reached new heights as RFK Jr. suddenly (but not surprising) dismantled the CDC’s ACIP (vaccine expert panel) and replaced it with vaccine skeptics to reshape vaccine policy and guidance.</li><li>Most- Favored-Nation (MFN) appeared to be in a stand-off as the 30- day deadline (June 11) for drug price targets passed without any action. </li></ul>

Pharma benefited from some defensive sector rotation, led by the big obesity duo, LLY and NVO, ahead of this week’s major diabetes conference (ADA 2025).Vaccine concerns reached new heights as RFK Jr. suddenly (but not surprising) dismantled the CDC’s ACIP (vaccine expert panel) and replaced it with vaccine skeptics to reshape vaccine policy and guidance.Most- Favored-Nation (MFN) appeared to be in a stand-off as the 30- day deadline (June 11) for drug price targets passed without any action. 

Biopharma Week in Review - Vaccine Advisory Board Overhaul Sudden but Not Surprising

United States

Avidity Biosciences LLC operates as a biotechnology company. The Company develops and discovers novel antibody oligonucleotide conjugates therapeutics that overcome current barriers to the delivery of oligonucleotides and unlock their potential to treat a wide range of serious diseases. Avidity Biosciences serves customers in the United States.

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Avidity Biosciences (RNA US)

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.17) - GLP-1s Inflection Point, Novartis to Acquire Avidity Biosciences

Semaglutide/Tirzepatide sales data show GLP-1 market reaching inflection point. Novartis approached Avidity with an acquisition offer. Price range...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Best Ideas of 2025

The range of ideas is broad. The smallest market cap is a $15MM Canadian micro-cap that is trading below its net cash, and the largest is an $25BN...

Richard Howe

Who Are Leading the Charge in the RNAissance of Medicine

RNA therapeutics: We analyze the field and spotlight top players driving this precision medicine, for tackling rare diseases with innovative solutions

Pyari Menon

Staying Bullish Despite Near-Term Pullback Potential; Buy Pullbacks

Buying a pullback; SPX testing 6400-6410 now, but QQQ and IWM are violating short-term supports at $572 and $226. This makes us believe we could...

Vermilion Research

Biopharma Week in Review - Vaccine Advisory Board Overhaul Sudden but Not Surprising

Pharma benefited from some defensive sector rotation, led by the big obesity duo, LLY and NVO, ahead of this week’s major diabetes conference (ADA...

Water Tower Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.17) - GLP-1s Inflection Point, Novartis to Acquire Avidity Biosciences

​Semaglutide/Tirzepatide sales data show GLP-1 market reaching inflection point. Novartis approached Avidity with an acquisition offer. Price range...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Best Ideas of 2025

The range of ideas is broad. The smallest market cap is a $15MM Canadian micro-cap that is trading below its net cash, and the largest is an $25BN...

Richard Howe

Who Are Leading the Charge in the RNAissance of Medicine

RNA therapeutics: We analyze the field and spotlight top players driving this precision medicine, for tackling rare diseases with innovative solutions

Pyari Menon

Staying Bullish Despite Near-Term Pullback Potential; Buy Pullbacks

Buying a pullback; SPX testing 6400-6410 now, but QQQ and IWM are violating short-term supports at $572 and $226. This makes us believe we could...

Vermilion Research

Biopharma Week in Review - Vaccine Advisory Board Overhaul Sudden but Not Surprising

Pharma benefited from some defensive sector rotation, led by the big obesity duo, LLY and NVO, ahead of this week’s major diabetes conference (ADA...

Water Tower Research

Semaglutide/Tirzepatide sales data show GLP-1 market reaching inflection point. Novartis approached Avidity with an acquisition offer. Price range...