Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paradigm-biopharmaceuticals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26140:1" rel="noopener">Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (PAR AU)</a> is re-pioneering patent expired, existing drug molecule pentosan polysulfate sodium as a potential treatment of osteoarthritis, under the brand name Zilosul.</li>
<li>With a current addressable patient population of 72 million people, Zilosul has an annual revenue potential of more than $10 billion, if approved.</li>
<li>Inherent safety concern on the existing FDA-approved indication and Paradigm’s financial capability are the near-term overhangs on the commercialization prospect of the drug.</li>
</ul>



Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (PAR AU) is re-pioneering patent expired, existing drug molecule pentosan polysulfate sodium as a potential treatment of osteoarthritis, under the brand name Zilosul.
With a current addressable patient population of 72 million people, Zilosul has an annual revenue potential of more than $10 billion, if approved.
Inherent safety concern on the existing FDA-approved indication and Paradigm’s financial capability are the near-term overhangs on the commercialization prospect of the drug.


Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (PAR AU): Concerns on First Potentially Commercialized Product

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<div><p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.</p></div><div>We are almost three quarters of the way through the review period. There are 3 potential inclusions at the review - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centuria-capital-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15546:1" rel="noopener">Centuria Capital (CNI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinnacle-investment-manageme" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20624:1" rel="noopener">Wilson (PNI AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sealink-travel-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6400:1" rel="noopener">Sealink Travel (SLK AU)</a> while the potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuix-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31040:1" rel="noopener">Nuix Limited (NXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nrw-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9271:1" rel="noopener">NRW Holdings (NWH AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13914:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Resources (GXY AU)</a> is placed in the inclusion zone but is unlikely to be added to the index given its pending merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> is a close add and the corresponding deletion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources (WGX AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>There is a large impact expected on the inclusions while the impact on the deletions is lower.</div><div></div><div>For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>, the short interest is close to the estimated passive selling. For the other two deletes, short interest is a lot smaller than the estimated passive selling and there will be more shorts created from now to rebalance implementation day.</div>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.We are almost three quarters of the way through the review period. There are 3 potential inclusions at the review - Centuria Capital (CNI AU), Wilson (PNI AU) and Sealink Travel (SLK AU) while the potential deletions are Nuix Limited (NXL AU), NRW Holdings (NWH AU) and G8 Education (GEM AU).
Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) is placed in the inclusion zone but is unlikely to be added to the index given its pending merger with Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU).
De Grey Mining (DEG AU) is a close add and the corresponding deletion is Westgold Resources (WGX AU).There is a large impact expected on the inclusions while the impact on the deletions is lower.For G8 Education (GEM AU), the short interest is close to the estimated passive selling. For the other two deletes, short interest is a lot smaller than the estimated passive selling and there will be more shorts created from now to rebalance implementation day.

ASX200 Sep21 Index Rebalance Preview: Large Impact Names

<div><p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the March index review on 12 March and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.</p></div><div>
<p>The data cutoff for the March review was 26 February.</p>
<p>We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuix-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31040:1" rel="noopener">Nuix Limited (NXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/codan-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6189:1" rel="noopener">Codan Ltd (CDA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a> as potential inclusions to the index, while we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/service-stream-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18493:1" rel="noopener">Service Stream (SSM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tassal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16234:1" rel="noopener">Tassal (TGR AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bravura-solutions-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23648:1" rel="noopener">Bravura Solutions (BVS AU)</a> as potential exclusions from the index.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/champion-iron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19734:1" rel="noopener">Champion Iron (CIA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> are close adds while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gwa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:663:1" rel="noopener">Gwa Group Ltd (GWA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smartgroup-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19954:1" rel="noopener">Smartgroup Corp (SIQ AU)</a> are close deletes.</p>
<p>Short interest on the potential inclusions has been decreasing and is currently near the lows while short interest on the potential deletions has been steadily increasing and is at the highs.</p>
<p>Since the last index review in December, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-pty-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet Holdings Pty Ltd (PBH AU)</a> was included in the index replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/saracen-mineral-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2415:1" rel="noopener">Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU)</a> following its merger of equals with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>.</p>
</div>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the March index review on 12 March and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 19 March.
The data cutoff for the March review was 26 February.
We see Nuix Limited (NXL AU), Codan Ltd (CDA AU) and Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) as potential inclusions to the index, while we see Service Stream (SSM AU), Tassal (TGR AU) and Bravura Solutions (BVS AU) as potential exclusions from the index.
Champion Iron (CIA AU) and De Grey Mining (DEG AU) are close adds while Gwa Group Ltd (GWA AU) and Smartgroup Corp (SIQ AU) are close deletes.
Short interest on the potential inclusions has been decreasing and is currently near the lows while short interest on the potential deletions has been steadily increasing and is at the highs.
Since the last index review in December, PointsBet Holdings Pty Ltd (PBH AU) was included in the index replacing Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR AU) following its merger of equals with Northern Star Resources (NST AU).


ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes & Some Close Names

<p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices has announced the list of changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the December index review that will be effective after the close of trading on 18 December.</p><p>There are 2 inclusion and 3 exclusions in the review. It seems like the index committee has not followed the index methodology that specifies that stocks with a rank of 179 or better will be added to the index, and stocks with a rank of 221 or lower will be deleted from the index.</p><p>The inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kogan-com-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23575:1" rel="noopener">Kogan.com (KGN AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reece-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3186:1" rel="noopener">Reece Ltd (REH AU)</a> while the exclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avita-medical-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14257:1" rel="noopener">Avita Medical (AVH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cooper-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14286:1" rel="noopener">Cooper Energy (COE AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/western-areas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15497:1" rel="noopener">Western Areas (WSA AU)</a>.</p><p>There are more deletes than adds since the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> has 201 constituents at the moment following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deterra-royalties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30851:1" rel="noopener">Deterra Royalties Ltd (DRR AU)</a>'s spin-off from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iluka-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10105:1" rel="noopener">Iluka Resources (ILU AU)</a>.</p>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices has announced the list of changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the December index review that will be effective after the close of trading on 18 December.There are 2 inclusion and 3 exclusions in the review. It seems like the index committee has not followed the index methodology that specifies that stocks with a rank of 179 or better will be added to the index, and stocks with a rank of 221 or lower will be deleted from the index.The inclusions are Kogan.com (KGN AU) and Reece Ltd (REH AU) while the exclusions are Avita Medical (AVH AU), Cooper Energy (COE AU) and Western Areas (WSA AU).There are more deletes than adds since the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has 201 constituents at the moment following Deterra Royalties Ltd (DRR AU)'s spin-off from Iluka Resources (ILU AU).

<p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the December index review on 11 December and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 18 December.</p>
<p>Today is the data cutoff to determine the list of inclusions and exclusions.</p>
<p>We see 5 potential inclusions in the December review: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reece-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3186:1" rel="noopener">Reece Ltd (REH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kogan-com-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23575:1" rel="noopener">Kogan.com (KGN AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tyro-payments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28393:1" rel="noopener">Tyro Payments (TYR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/codan-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6189:1" rel="noopener">Codan Ltd (CDA AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a>.</p>
<p>We see 6 potential inclusions in the December review: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cooper-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14286:1" rel="noopener">Cooper Energy (COE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/western-areas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15497:1" rel="noopener">Western Areas (WSA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/service-stream-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18493:1" rel="noopener">Service Stream (SSM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gwa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:663:1" rel="noopener">Gwa Group Ltd (GWA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avita-medical-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14257:1" rel="noopener">Avita Medical (AVH AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unibail-rodamco-westfield" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27181:1" rel="noopener">Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW AU)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tassal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16234:1" rel="noopener">Tassal (TGR AU)</a> is ranked very close to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unibail-rodamco-westfield" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27181:1" rel="noopener">Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW AU)</a> and could be an alternate delete name.</p>
<p>There are more deletes than adds since the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> has 201 constituents at the moment following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deterra-royalties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30851:1" rel="noopener">Deterra Royalties Ltd (DRR AU)</a>'s spin-off from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iluka-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10105:1" rel="noopener">Iluka Resources (ILU AU)</a>.</p>
<p>The expected inclusions have underperformed the expected exclusions significantly over the last few weeks on the momentum unwind and switch to value stocks. There are a few expected adds and deletes with over 2 days of ADV to trade and they could outperform from here to implementation date.</p>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the December index review on 11 December and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 18 December.
Today is the data cutoff to determine the list of inclusions and exclusions.
We see 5 potential inclusions in the December review: Reece Ltd (REH AU), Kogan.com (KGN AU), Tyro Payments (TYR AU), Codan Ltd (CDA AU) and De Grey Mining (DEG AU).
We see 6 potential inclusions in the December review: Cooper Energy (COE AU), Western Areas (WSA AU), Service Stream (SSM AU), Gwa Group Ltd (GWA AU), Avita Medical (AVH AU) and Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW AU). Tassal (TGR AU) is ranked very close to Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW AU) and could be an alternate delete name.
There are more deletes than adds since the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) has 201 constituents at the moment following Deterra Royalties Ltd (DRR AU)'s spin-off from Iluka Resources (ILU AU).
The expected inclusions have underperformed the expected exclusions significantly over the last few weeks on the momentum unwind and switch to value stocks. There are a few expected adds and deletes with over 2 days of ADV to trade and they could outperform from here to implementation date.

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Expected Inclusions Underperforming as Momentum Unwinds

Australia

Avita Medical Limited is a biotechnology company which develops and distributes tissue-engineered cellular products for skin replacement. The Company's products include CellSpray and ReCell, which are used for the treatment of burns and other skin injuries, previous scarring, chronic wounds and cosmetic procedures.

Avita Medical (AVH AU)

Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (PAR AU): Concerns on First Potentially Commercialized Product

The company's dependence on a single molecule makes it a risky bet. Moreover, the inherent safety concern of the lead candidate may limit its...

Tina Banerjee

ASX200 Sep21 Index Rebalance Preview: Large Impact Names

We see 3 potential changes to the ASX200 at the Sep rebalance with CNI, PNI and SLK being included and NXL, NRW and GEM being deleted. Passive...

Brian Freitas

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Changes & Some Close Names

We see three potential changes to the ASX200 in the March review while there are another two close adds/deletes. High short interest on the...

Brian Freitas

ASX200 Index Rebalance: Strange As

There are 2 adds and 3 deletes. This is 'strange as' since there were 5 adds and 6 deletes expected from following the index methodology. Reece and...

Brian Freitas

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Expected Inclusions Underperforming as Momentum Unwinds

There could be 5 additions and 6 deletions at the upcoming ASX200 rebalance. Changes will be announced on 11 Dec and implemented at the close on 18...

Brian Freitas