Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd</a> have entered into a SID where Pendal shareholders will receive 1 share of Perpetual for every 7.5 shares in Pendal, plus cash of A$1.976/share.</li>
<li>While this is a premium to the last close and undisturbed prices, it is a discount to longer term prices. The Pendal Board has unanimously recommended the offer though.</li>
<li>In the short-term expect short covering on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a> and increased shorts on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a> as arbs step in to close the gap.</li>
</ul>



Pendal Group and Perpetual Ltd have entered into a SID where Pendal shareholders will receive 1 share of Perpetual for every 7.5 shares in Pendal, plus cash of A$1.976/share.
While this is a premium to the last close and undisturbed prices, it is a discount to longer term prices. The Pendal Board has unanimously recommended the offer though.
In the short-term expect short covering on Pendal Group (PDL AU) and increased shorts on Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) as arbs step in to close the gap.


Pendal Group (PDL AU): Perpetual's Bump Should Get the Deal Done

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Centuria Industrial REIT / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/360-capital-industrial-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17517:1" rel="noopener">Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP AU)</a> is looking to raise AUD300m to partially fund its acquisition of industrial assets.</p><p>In this note, we will take a brief look at the assets to be acquired, the impact of it, and share our thoughts on deal dynamics.</p><p>We have previously covered its December 2019 placement in:</p><ul><li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/centuria-industrial-reit-placement-relatively-big-raise-for-relatively-little-accretion" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:35192" rel="noopener">Centuria Industrial REIT Placement - Relatively Big Raise for Relatively Little Accretion</a> </p></li></ul>

Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP AU) is looking to raise AUD300m to partially fund its acquisition of industrial assets.In this note, we will take a brief look at the assets to be acquired, the impact of it, and share our thoughts on deal dynamics.We have previously covered its December 2019 placement in:Centuria Industrial REIT Placement - Relatively Big Raise for Relatively Little Accretion 

Centuria Industrial REIT - Past Deals Have Done Well, but This Deal Is Much Bigger

<div><p>S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.</p></div><div>We are almost three quarters of the way through the review period. There are 3 potential inclusions at the review - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centuria-capital-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15546:1" rel="noopener">Centuria Capital (CNI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinnacle-investment-manageme" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20624:1" rel="noopener">Wilson (PNI AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sealink-travel-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6400:1" rel="noopener">Sealink Travel (SLK AU)</a> while the potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuix-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31040:1" rel="noopener">Nuix Limited (NXL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nrw-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9271:1" rel="noopener">NRW Holdings (NWH AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/galaxy-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13914:1" rel="noopener">Galaxy Resources (GXY AU)</a> is placed in the inclusion zone but is unlikely to be added to the index given its pending merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orocobre-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3572:1" rel="noopener">Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> is a close add and the corresponding deletion is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westgold-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24269:1" rel="noopener">Westgold Resources (WGX AU)</a>.</div><div></div><div>There is a large impact expected on the inclusions while the impact on the deletions is lower.</div><div></div><div>For <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/g8-education-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:581:1" rel="noopener">G8 Education (GEM AU)</a>, the short interest is close to the estimated passive selling. For the other two deletes, short interest is a lot smaller than the estimated passive selling and there will be more shorts created from now to rebalance implementation day.</div>

S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices will announce changes to the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) as part of the September index review on 3 September and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 17 September.We are almost three quarters of the way through the review period. There are 3 potential inclusions at the review - Centuria Capital (CNI AU), Wilson (PNI AU) and Sealink Travel (SLK AU) while the potential deletions are Nuix Limited (NXL AU), NRW Holdings (NWH AU) and G8 Education (GEM AU).
Galaxy Resources (GXY AU) is placed in the inclusion zone but is unlikely to be added to the index given its pending merger with Orocobre Ltd (ORE AU).
De Grey Mining (DEG AU) is a close add and the corresponding deletion is Westgold Resources (WGX AU).There is a large impact expected on the inclusions while the impact on the deletions is lower.For G8 Education (GEM AU), the short interest is close to the estimated passive selling. For the other two deletes, short interest is a lot smaller than the estimated passive selling and there will be more shorts created from now to rebalance implementation day.

ASX200 Sep21 Index Rebalance Preview: Large Impact Names

Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<p>On 19th April 2021, ASX-listed real estate funds managers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/primewest-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29103:1" rel="noopener">Primewest Group Ltd (PWG AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centuria-capital-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15546:1" rel="noopener">Centuria Capital (CNI AU)</a> announced plans to merge in a A$600mn cash-and-scrip deal. This transaction was structured as an <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02364563-6A1028800?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Off-market Takeover bid</a> by CNI for 100% of PWG Securities where PWG securityholders will get A$0.20 in cash and 0.473 CNI Securities per PWG security. I covered this situation in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/primewest-pwg-au-centuria-s-off-market-takeover-bid-could-trigger-asx-s-p-200-index-inclusion" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50533" rel="noopener">Primewest (PWG AU): Centuria's Off-Market Takeover Bid Could Trigger ASX/S&amp;P 200 Index Inclusion</a> </p><p>Today, CNI <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02381509-6A1035575?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> they have extended the Offer Period by changing the Closing Date from 17th June 2021 to 24th June 2021. Below is a discussion on the latest updates to this situation. </p><hr><div><div><div class="content-remarks"><p>For more information about M&amp;A rules, regulations, and practices in Australia, please refer to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-australia-m-a-guide-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30118" rel="noopener">Quiddity Australia M&amp;A Guide 2019</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-m-a-australia-foreign-investment-reforms" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40210" rel="noopener">Quiddity M&amp;A: Australia Foreign Investment Reforms</a> </p></div></div></div>

On 19th April 2021, ASX-listed real estate funds managers Primewest Group Ltd (PWG AU) and Centuria Capital (CNI AU) announced plans to merge in a A$600mn cash-and-scrip deal. This transaction was structured as an Off-market Takeover bid by CNI for 100% of PWG Securities where PWG securityholders will get A$0.20 in cash and 0.473 CNI Securities per PWG security. I covered this situation in Primewest (PWG AU): Centuria's Off-Market Takeover Bid Could Trigger ASX/S&amp;P 200 Index Inclusion Today, CNI announced they have extended the Offer Period by changing the Closing Date from 17th June 2021 to 24th June 2021. Below is a discussion on the latest updates to this situation. For more information about M&amp;A rules, regulations, and practices in Australia, please refer to Quiddity Australia M&amp;A Guide 2019 and Quiddity M&amp;A: Australia Foreign Investment Reforms 

Primewest (PWG AU): Centuria Offer Period Extended; Trading Wide

<p>On 19th April 2021, ASX-listed real estate funds managers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/primewest-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29103:1" rel="noopener">Primewest Group Ltd (PWG AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/centuria-capital-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15546:1" rel="noopener">Centuria Capital (CNI AU)</a> announced plans to merge in a A$600mn cash-and-scrip Deal. This transaction will be structured as an <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02364563-6A1028800?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Off-market Takeover bid</a> by CNI for 100% of PWG Securities where PWG securityholders will get A$0.20 in cash and 0.473 CNI Securities per PWG security. </p><p>The transaction is conditional on a minimum acceptance condition. The Offer Period is expected to open in mid-May and close in mid-June 2021. </p><p>CNI last closed at A$2.77 translating to a Offer consideration of A$1.51 which is the same as PWG's price.</p><p><em>More below the fold. </em></p><hr><div><div><div class="content-remarks"><p>For more information about M&amp;A rules, regulations, and practices in Australia, please refer to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-australia-m-a-guide-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30118" rel="noopener">Quiddity Australia M&amp;A Guide 2019</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-m-a-australia-foreign-investment-reforms" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40210" rel="noopener">Quiddity M&amp;A: Australia Foreign Investment Reforms</a> </p></div></div></div>

On 19th April 2021, ASX-listed real estate funds managers Primewest Group Ltd (PWG AU) and Centuria Capital (CNI AU) announced plans to merge in a A$600mn cash-and-scrip Deal. This transaction will be structured as an Off-market Takeover bid by CNI for 100% of PWG Securities where PWG securityholders will get A$0.20 in cash and 0.473 CNI Securities per PWG security. The transaction is conditional on a minimum acceptance condition. The Offer Period is expected to open in mid-May and close in mid-June 2021. CNI last closed at A$2.77 translating to a Offer consideration of A$1.51 which is the same as PWG's price.More below the fold. For more information about M&amp;A rules, regulations, and practices in Australia, please refer to Quiddity Australia M&amp;A Guide 2019 and Quiddity M&amp;A: Australia Foreign Investment Reforms 

Primewest (PWG AU): Centuria's Off-Market Takeover Bid Could Trigger ASX/S&P 200 Index Inclusion

Australia

Centuria Capital Group manages a diversified portfolio of investment funds and offers financial  services.  The Company manages funds of unlisted property investments; and offers investment  bonds, education plans, insurance and home loans.

Centuria Capital (CNI AU)

Pendal Group (PDL AU): Perpetual's Bump Should Get the Deal Done

Perpetual has bumped its offer for Pendal & that should be enough to get the deal done. Both stocks have been on a downtrend over the last year and...

Brian Freitas

Centuria Industrial REIT - Past Deals Have Done Well, but This Deal Is Much Bigger

Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP AU) is looking to raise AUD300m to partially fund its acquisition of industrial assets. We will share our thoughts on...

Sumeet Singh

ASX200 Sep21 Index Rebalance Preview: Large Impact Names

We see 3 potential changes to the ASX200 at the Sep rebalance with CNI, PNI and SLK being included and NXL, NRW and GEM being deleted. Passive...

Brian Freitas

Primewest (PWG AU): Centuria Offer Period Extended; Trading Wide

ASX-listed real estate funds managers PWG and CNI are merging in a A$600m cash-and-scrip Deal structured as an Off-market bid. Offer Closing Date...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Primewest (PWG AU): Centuria's Off-Market Takeover Bid Could Trigger ASX/S&P 200 Index Inclusion

Primewest and Centuria have agreed a merger with a small premium but which will lead to substantial EPS synergies for PWG unitholders. The spread...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA