Lane Research

Douglas Lane

Lane Research is a boutique fundamental equity research firm focusing on companies that employ a direct to consumer business model. This is an area where we have had extensive experience over the years, going back to the mid-1990s when Amway Asia Pacific, Amway Japan and Nu Skin originally listed on the New York Stock Exchange. We think Direct Selling in particular supports many favorable consumer macro-trends such as leveraging today’s technology to advance social selling and workplace flexibility, and the move towards shopping away from a fixed retail location. Our proprietary financial modeling coupled with our decades of experience and contacts within this unique business model leave us well positioned to provide alpha to investors interested in the space. Lane Research does not have any trading or investment banking operations, fully aligning our objectives with our clients.

Experience includes:

-9 equity analyst awards, including Starmine's #2 stock picker in 2011 for Household Durables & #1 earnings estimator in 2010 for Personal Products, and The Wall Street Journal's #1 stock picker in 2004 & 2006 for Household Products. 

-Financial TV appearances including CNBC and Bloomberg

-Quotes in financial publications such as Wall St Journal, Investors Business Daily and Barron's, and newswires such as Reuters and the Associated Press

-Chartered Financial Analyst since 1992 and member of the CFA Society Boston

-FINRA Series 7, 63, 86 & 87

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

After 4 quarters of largely favorable currency comparisons for the Direct Selling companies we follow, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4527" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4527:1">Avon Products (AVP US)</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6216" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6216:1">Herbalife Ltd (HLF US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10036" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10036:1">Medifast Inc (MED US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/12451" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12451:1">Nu Skin Enterprises Inc A (NUS US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/7022" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7022:1">Tupperware Brands (TUP US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15961" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15961:1">Usana Health Sciences (USNA US)</a> , with the strengthening of the dollar this year it looks like the 2018 3Q foreign exchange impact will return to being a headwind for these largely international companies.  However, there could be large differences in the magnitude of the headwind among the companies we follow depending on geographic mix.

After 4 quarters of largely favorable currency comparisons for the Direct Selling companies we follow, Avon Products (AVP US),  Herbalife Ltd (HLF US), Medifast Inc (MED US), Nu Skin Enterprises Inc A (NUS US), Tupperware Brands (TUP US) and Usana Health Sciences (USNA US) , with the strengthening of the dollar this year it looks like the 2018 3Q foreign exchange impact will return to being a headwind for these largely international companies.  However, there could be large differences in the magnitude of the headwind among the companies we follow depending on geographic mix.

Direct Selling Sector Analysis: Currency Exchange Moves to Headwind in 3Q

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

<ul><li>Drinking milk products value sales grow by 4% to reach TWD28.5 billion in 2017</li><li>Prices for leading milk brands rise in 2017</li><li>Milk alternatives, fuelled by sales of soy milk, is the fastest-growing major category in 2017, with value sales rising by 5%</li><li>Rising costs of inputs drive a healthy increase in the average unit prices in 2017</li><li>Uni-President Enterprises Corp maintains the leading role in drinking milk products in 2017</li><li>Drinking milk products is anticipated to post a value CAGR of 1% at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period, and reach TWD29.2 billion in 2022</li></ul>

Drinking milk products value sales grow by 4% to reach TWD28.5 billion in 2017Prices for leading milk brands rise in 2017Milk alternatives, fuelled by sales of soy milk, is the fastest-growing major category in 2017, with value sales rising by 5%Rising costs of inputs drive a healthy increase in the average unit prices in 2017Uni-President Enterprises Corp maintains the leading role in drinking milk products in 2017Drinking milk products is anticipated to post a value CAGR of 1% at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period, and reach TWD29.2 billion in 2022

Sector Capsule: Drinking Milk Products in Taiwan

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

In this review, we highlight 5 Thai stocks that could potentially do well in the Donald December 2016, the last Christmas Obama will get to celebrate from the White House. In terms of updates, we collected news and snippets from NY Times and other publications about who the potential Trump cabinet could include in 2017. Honestly, the actual composition of the Cabinet is unlikely to have much impact on Thai equities, but MCorp Review has followed the US elections for so long it makes sense to go…

In this review, we highlight 5 Thai stocks that could potentially do well in the Donald December 2016, the last Christmas Obama will get to celebrate from the White House. In terms of updates, we collected news and snippets from NY Times and other publications about who the potential Trump cabinet could include in 2017. Honestly, the actual composition of the Cabinet is unlikely to have much impact on Thai equities, but MCorp Review has followed the US elections for so long it makes sense to go…

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

<ul><li>Annualised volatility in the S&amp;P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. &nbsp;Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average of volatility of 14% remains broadly in line with historical trends over the sweep of the past 45 years.</li><li>The positive surprise on 2Q US real GDP concealed the five year long stall in nominal GDP growth.&nbsp; The US Federal Reserve&rsquo;s unwillingness to combat disinflation has contributed to the growth stall.&nbsp; Investors remain unnerved by the Fed&rsquo;s willingness to tighten monetary policy at a time when inflation continues to undershoot its 2% target.</li><li>I expect financial market volatility to remain high until the Fed more clearly enunciates the goals of monetary policy and why it remains indifferent to achieving its inflation target.</li><li>In Australia, the poor 2Q capex survey confirmed that the economy is on the precipice of a 20% slump in business investment in FY2015/16.&nbsp; The long and drawn out transition from mining to non-mining capex continues to weigh on growth and frustrate the RBA.&nbsp; In my view, the re-balancing of growth will need an assist from further monetary stimulus.</li></ul>

Annualised volatility in the S&amp;P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. &nbsp;Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average of volatility of 14% remains broadly in line with historical trends over the sweep of the past 45 years.The positive surprise on 2Q US real GDP concealed the five year long stall in nominal GDP growth.&nbsp; The US Federal Reserve&rsquo;s unwillingness to combat disinflation has contributed to the growth stall.&nbsp; Investors remain unnerved by the Fed&rsquo;s willingness to tighten monetary policy at a time when inflation continues to undershoot its 2% target.I expect financial market volatility to remain high until the Fed more clearly enunciates the goals of monetary policy and why it remains indifferent to achieving its inflation target.In Australia, the poor 2Q capex survey confirmed that the economy is on the precipice of a 20% slump in business investment in FY2015/16.&nbsp; The long and drawn out transition from mining to non-mining capex continues to weigh on growth and frustrate the RBA.&nbsp; In my view, the re-balancing of growth will need an assist from further monetary stimulus.

United Kingdom

Avon Products, Inc. manufactures and sells beauty and related products. The Company offers fragrances, color cosmetics, and personal care products, as well as fashion and home products such as jewelries, watches, apparels, footwear, accessories, and decorative products. Avon Products serves customers worldwide.

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Avon Products (AVP US)

Direct Selling Sector Analysis: Currency Exchange Moves to Headwind in 3Q

After 4 quarters of largely favorable currency comparisons for the Direct Selling companies we follow, Avon Products (AVP US), Herbalife Ltd (HLF...

Douglas Lane

Sector Capsule: Drinking Milk Products in Taiwan

Drinking milk products value sales grow by 4% to reach TWD28.5 billion in 2017 Prices for leading milk brands rise in 2017 Milk alternatives,...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

5 Stock Picks for Santa Trump

In this review, we highlight 5 Thai stocks that could potentially do well in the Donald December 2016, the last Christmas Obama will get to...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Weekly Impressions

Annualised volatility in the S&P500 spiked to 27% in August, its highest level since November 2011. Nonetheless, the 6 month moving average...

Sam Ferraro

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