Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 15 stocks in Japan that will be sold by passive trackers at the close on 31 May.</li>
<li>Short interest has been increasing in these stocks over the last few months and there will be covering on implementation date.</li>
<li>Cumulative excess volume on all stocks has risen in the last couple of months though the pace of the increase has varied.</li>
</ul>


There are 15 stocks in Japan that will be sold by passive trackers at the close on 31 May.
Short interest has been increasing in these stocks over the last few months and there will be covering on implementation date.
Cumulative excess volume on all stocks has risen in the last couple of months though the pace of the increase has varied.


Japan - Another Big Round of Passive Selling

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Global indexes including the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US are following in the MSCI EM index’s footsteps by breaking to new highs. This is bullish and signals a new leg higher is underway. Additionally, the US dollar is showing signs of a breakdown, something we view as a positive for global risk sentiment as long as the decline continues to be orderly. Overall our outlook remains bullish and we suggest buying any dips. Growth remains long-term leadership -- remain overweight. Attractive growth Sectors highlighted in today’s report include: Health Care, Services, Technology, and Communications

Global indexes including the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US are following in the MSCI EM index’s footsteps by breaking to new highs. This is bullish and signals a new leg higher is underway. Additionally, the US dollar is showing signs of a breakdown, something we view as a positive for global risk sentiment as long as the decline continues to be orderly. Overall our outlook remains bullish and we suggest buying any dips. Growth remains long-term leadership -- remain overweight. Attractive growth Sectors highlighted in today’s report include: Health Care, Services, Technology, and Communications

U.S. Dollar Breakdown: Bullish For Ex-U.S. Equities

Global equities are now breaking out to new highs amid positive technical developments -- something we noted was increasingly likely in last week’s Int’l Compass. These breakouts and other technical developments highlighted below argue that this is the beginning of a new leg higher. Now is the time to be playing offense. In today’s report we highlight our favorite setups within Industrials, spanning the Vermilion international Manufacturing, Services, and Transportation Sectors.

Global equities are now breaking out to new highs amid positive technical developments -- something we noted was increasingly likely in last week’s Int’l Compass. These breakouts and other technical developments highlighted below argue that this is the beginning of a new leg higher. Now is the time to be playing offense. In today’s report we highlight our favorite setups within Industrials, spanning the Vermilion international Manufacturing, Services, and Transportation Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Global Equities Beginning a New Leg Higher

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe  developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership position relative to EM (MSCI EM). In this report we highlight actionable set ups within Japan, Switzerland and Australia. Within Japanese Sectors, we focus on opportunities within Technology, Financials, Health Care, and Staples. We also highlight attractive setups within European/UK Sectors, including Health Care, Industrials, Staples and Utilities.

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe  developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership position relative to EM (MSCI EM). In this report we highlight actionable set ups within Japan, Switzerland and Australia. Within Japanese Sectors, we focus on opportunities within Technology, Financials, Health Care, and Staples. We also highlight attractive setups within European/UK Sectors, including Health Care, Industrials, Staples and Utilities.

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

Cofoe Medical Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cofoe-medical-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45716:1" rel="noopener">Cofoe Medical Technology (1187 HK)</a> launched its H-share IPO at HK$39.33, valuing the stock at 16.4x PER for FY26, a discount to the global peers.</li>
<li>Its 3-year EPS CAGR of 18.8% is ahead of the global average, but its market capitalisation of HK$9.3bn is materially smaller.</li>
<li>Using a 10% PER discount to global peers, it has a fair range of HK$41.8-45.2, which equals a reasonable 27-33% discount to its A-share <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cofoe-medical-technology-co-lt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34791:1" rel="noopener">Cofoe Medical (301087 CH)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Cofoe Medical Technology (1187 HK) launched its H-share IPO at HK$39.33, valuing the stock at 16.4x PER for FY26, a discount to the global peers.
Its 3-year EPS CAGR of 18.8% is ahead of the global average, but its market capitalisation of HK$9.3bn is materially smaller.
Using a 10% PER discount to global peers, it has a fair range of HK$41.8-45.2, which equals a reasonable 27-33% discount to its A-share Cofoe Medical (301087 CH). 


Cofoe Medical Technology (1187 HK) IPO: Priced with Reasonable Potential Gain

Japan

Azbil Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets total automation equipment used in industrial and commercial buildings. The Company's products include sensors, switches, recording meters, security systems, air conditioners, pressure transmitters, and flow meters.

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Azbil Corp (6845 JP)

Japan - Another Big Round of Passive Selling

The close tomorrow should see huge volumes trade on these stocks. Shorts will be covered and longs will be selectively put on.

Brian Freitas

U.S. Dollar Breakdown: Bullish For Ex-U.S. Equities

Global indexes including the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US are following in the MSCI EM index’s footsteps by breaking to new highs. This is bullish and...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Global Equities Beginning a New Leg Higher

Global equities are now breaking out to new highs amid positive technical developments -- something we noted was increasingly likely in last week’s...

Vermilion Research

Developed Markets Opportunities

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership...

Vermilion Research

Cofoe Medical Technology (1187 HK) IPO: Priced with Reasonable Potential Gain

Cofoe Medical Technology's H-share IPO values the stock at a discount to global peers. We estimate a fair range of HK$41.8-45.2, balancing the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan - Another Big Round of Passive Selling

The close tomorrow should see huge volumes trade on these stocks. Shorts will be covered and longs will be selectively put on.

Brian Freitas

U.S. Dollar Breakdown: Bullish For Ex-U.S. Equities

Global indexes including the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US are following in the MSCI EM index’s footsteps by breaking to new highs. This is bullish and...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Global Equities Beginning a New Leg Higher

Global equities are now breaking out to new highs amid positive technical developments -- something we noted was increasingly likely in last week’s...

Vermilion Research

Developed Markets Opportunities

Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership...

Vermilion Research

Cofoe Medical Technology (1187 HK) IPO: Priced with Reasonable Potential Gain

​Cofoe Medical Technology's H-share IPO values the stock at a discount to global peers. We estimate a fair range of HK$41.8-45.2, balancing the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Cofoe Medical Technology's H-share IPO values the stock at a discount to global peers. We estimate a fair range of HK$41.8-45.2, balancing the...