Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I am not a tax advisor and I do not play one on TV but it is a subject of interest in Australia, as <a href="https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/opportunities-as-investors-sell-stocks-for-tax-losses-before-june-30-20220527-p5ap0w" target="_blank" rel="noopener">an AFR article</a> last year shows.</li>
<li>The general gist of the idea is that retail investors in Australia will take gains on things which run up in price, or get taken over, then look for losses.</li>
<li>Below I present a study using data from 2012-2022 of how a basket portfolio trade might work.</li>
</ul>


I am not a tax advisor and I do not play one on TV but it is a subject of interest in Australia, as an AFR article last year shows.
The general gist of the idea is that retail investors in Australia will take gains on things which run up in price, or get taken over, then look for losses.
Below I present a study using data from 2012-2022 of how a basket portfolio trade might work.


Tax-Loss Selling in Australia - Brief Historical Analysis And A Trade Basket

<ul>
<li>Originally, this was an analysis of tax-loss selling baskets over the years, and seasonal performance of baskets of stocks with certain attributes. On average, they fell vs index.</li>
<li>Of course, on average, they also rose vs index after the selling was done.</li>
<li>This insight puts a cap on the 2023 edition with results across the four baskets. The sell made 4.2% vs ASX200 in May, then is up</li>
</ul>


Originally, this was an analysis of tax-loss selling baskets over the years, and seasonal performance of baskets of stocks with certain attributes. On average, they fell vs index.
Of course, on average, they also rose vs index after the selling was done.
This insight puts a cap on the 2023 edition with results across the four baskets. The sell made 4.2% vs ASX200 in May, then is up


[Update] Tax-Loss Selling In Australia - Closing the Circle on the Rebound Trade

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tax-loss-selling-in-australia-brief-historical-analysis-and-a-trade-basket" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:103750" rel="noopener">Tax-Loss Selling in Australia - Brief Historical Analysis And A Trade Basket</a> at the start of June I proposed a basket. </li>
<li>We are getting to the end of June. Time to unwind that short basket. The named ticker was -26%. The 70-name basket underperformed ASX200 by 4.4%.</li>
<li>One can now go long the basket into end-June as historically it outperforms S&amp;P-ASX200 over two months. If one did not short, one can still go long. Basket below.</li>
</ul>


In Tax-Loss Selling in Australia - Brief Historical Analysis And A Trade Basket at the start of June I proposed a basket. 
We are getting to the end of June. Time to unwind that short basket. The named ticker was -26%. The 70-name basket underperformed ASX200 by 4.4%.
One can now go long the basket into end-June as historically it outperforms S&amp;P-ASX200 over two months. If one did not short, one can still go long. Basket below.


[UPDATE] Tax-Loss Selling in Australia - Time To Unwind the Basket

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Changes to the S&amp;P/ASX indices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">REMX US</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">GDXJ US</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-property-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30998:1" rel="noopener">MVA AU</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-equal-weight-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24297:1" rel="noopener">MVW AU</a> and other indices will be implemented at the close on Friday.</li>
<li>There is over +/-A$5m to trade or +/-3x ADV to trade on nearly 100 stocks and will be a huge volume day for the stocks at the close.</li>
<li>Use the volume on the buy and sell side to increase/reduce positions especially on the deletes where there will be liquidity to cover shorts on stocks that have dropped significantly.</li>
</ul>


Changes to the S&amp;P/ASX indices, REMX US, GDXJ US, MVA AU, MVW AU and other indices will be implemented at the close on Friday.
There is over +/-A$5m to trade or +/-3x ADV to trade on nearly 100 stocks and will be a huge volume day for the stocks at the close.
Use the volume on the buy and sell side to increase/reduce positions especially on the deletes where there will be liquidity to cover shorts on stocks that have dropped significantly.


Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW & Other Index Flows on Friday

<ul>
<li>The changes at the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> September rebalance were announced on 4 September. The rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI was implemented on the same day.</li>
<li>The changes to the MVIS indices were announced on 8 September and will be implemented at the close on 15 September. The S&amp;P/ASX family will also rebalance on 15 September.</li>
<li>After a month and a half of big inflows to onshore China ETFs, there were small outflows from a lot of ETFs during the week.</li>
</ul>


The changes at the Nikkei 225 September rebalance were announced on 4 September. The rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI was implemented on the same day.
The changes to the MVIS indices were announced on 8 September and will be implemented at the close on 15 September. The S&amp;P/ASX family will also rebalance on 15 September.
After a month and a half of big inflows to onshore China ETFs, there were small outflows from a lot of ETFs during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

Australia

BrainChip Holdings Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides neural computing technology solutions. Brainchip Holdings offers artificial neural networks, software, and digital hardware solutions in Australia and the United States.

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Tax-Loss Selling in Australia - Brief Historical Analysis And A Trade Basket

"Tax-Loss-Selling" in Australia is a much-discussed phenomenon. Those who take capital gains seek to offset those by taking losses on stocks which...

Travis Lundy

[Update] Tax-Loss Selling In Australia - Closing the Circle on the Rebound Trade

This insight squares the circle on the 2023 Aussie Tax-Loss-Selling (and Post-Selling Rebound) trade. It worked on the sell leg then on the rebound...

Travis Lundy

[UPDATE] Tax-Loss Selling in Australia - Time To Unwind the Basket

The June Aus Tax-Loss Selling Basket has worked, trailing ASX200 by ~4.4% since end-May (or early June execution). The named ticker was -26%....

Travis Lundy

Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW & Other Index Flows on Friday

There are a bunch of rebalances that will be implemented in Australia on Friday. Nearly 100 stocks will have over A$5m or more than 3x ADV to...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

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