IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)</a> is now negotiating deal terms with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a> after substantially completing diligence, while Wildcat’s competing proposal remains at the non-binding dialogue stage.</li>
<li>Tax structuring advice and extended diligence signal a late-stage process, making a binding Hanwha offer materially more likely; price remains the key open question.</li>
<li>My revised SoTP values Austal at A$4.84–$6.97 per share, 17–69% above A$4.13. The gap reflects AUSA deal-completion risk plus a standalone Australasia scale discount — not fundamentals alone.</li>
</ul>



Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) is now negotiating deal terms with Austal Ltd (ASB AU) after substantially completing diligence, while Wildcat’s competing proposal remains at the non-binding dialogue stage.
Tax structuring advice and extended diligence signal a late-stage process, making a binding Hanwha offer materially more likely; price remains the key open question.
My revised SoTP values Austal at A$4.84–$6.97 per share, 17–69% above A$4.13. The gap reflects AUSA deal-completion risk plus a standalone Australasia scale discount — not fundamentals alone.


Austal (ASB AU): Hanwha Pulls Ahead of Wildcat in the Race for Austal USA

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, when we discussed that 5110-5120 on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.</li>
<li>We'll maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115; we would be buyers on pullbacks to these levels.</li>
<li>We would also be buyers at 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US, which are shorter-term supports.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, when we discussed that 5110-5120 on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) was a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
We'll maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and SPX and ACWI-US are above 5500 and $115; we would be buyers on pullbacks to these levels.
We would also be buyers at 5700-5785 on SPX and $120-$121 on ACWI-US, which are shorter-term supports.


MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a> disclosed a non-binding proposal from Wildcat Resources for Austal USA at an enterprise value of US$1.25 to US$1.35 billion.</li>
<li>The Wildcat offer’s midpoint of US$1.30 billion is at a 15% premium to Hanwha's offer’s midpoint of US$1.125 billion. Wildcat is requesting four weeks of due diligence.</li>
<li>Hanwha is likely to return with a revised offer as the Wildcat offer values Austal USA at a discount to its closest peer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huntington-ingalls-industries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3136:1" rel="noopener">Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII US)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Austal Ltd (ASB AU) disclosed a non-binding proposal from Wildcat Resources for Austal USA at an enterprise value of US$1.25 to US$1.35 billion.
The Wildcat offer’s midpoint of US$1.30 billion is at a 15% premium to Hanwha's offer’s midpoint of US$1.125 billion. Wildcat is requesting four weeks of due diligence.
Hanwha is likely to return with a revised offer as the Wildcat offer values Austal USA at a discount to its closest peer, Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII US). 


Austal (ASB AU): Wildcat Lobs a Competing Offer for Austal USA

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18</li>
<li>Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. </li>
<li>So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18
Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. 
So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

<ul>
<li>Global equites (MSCI ACWI) have pulled back some following the FOMC's hawkish-leaning announcement. Short-term support is at $102 on ACWI-US--last week's breakout level-- while longer-term support remains at $98-$99.</li>
<li>A break below $102 would indicate more consolidation is likely but, if ACWI-US remains above $98, we remain bullish on global equities, and we view pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
<li>Europe remains bullish, and we remain overweight Japan and India. Actionable Themes: many stocks highlighted within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Services, and Technology</li>
</ul>


Global equites (MSCI ACWI) have pulled back some following the FOMC's hawkish-leaning announcement. Short-term support is at $102 on ACWI-US--last week's breakout level-- while longer-term support remains at $98-$99.
A break below $102 would indicate more consolidation is likely but, if ACWI-US remains above $98, we remain bullish on global equities, and we view pullbacks as buying opportunities.
Europe remains bullish, and we remain overweight Japan and India. Actionable Themes: many stocks highlighted within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Industrials, Services, and Technology


MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

United Kingdom

BAE Systems plc is a British multinational corporation specializing in defence, aerospace, and security technologies. It develops, engineers, manufactures, and supports products and systems across five key sectors: Electronic Systems, Platforms & Services, Air, Maritime, and Cyber & Intelligence, serving military and security customers worldwide. The company is headquartered in London, England, and was formed on November 30, 1999.

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BAE Systems (BA/ LN)

Austal (ASB AU): Hanwha Pulls Ahead of Wildcat in the Race for Austal USA

Hanwha is negotiating terms and leads Wildcat for Austal USA; a binding offer looks likely. SoTP of A$4.84–6.97/sh implies 17–69% upside to A$4.13.

Arun George

MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports. Many Buys

MSCI $ACWI Testing All-Time Highs; Buy Pullbacks to $120-$121 or $115 Supports; Bullish Outlook Intact. Discussed Thursday pre-market that a...

Vermilion Research

Austal (ASB AU): Wildcat Lobs a Competing Offer for Austal USA

Hanwha is likely to return with a revised offer as the Wildcat offer values Austal USA at a discount to its closest peer.

Arun George

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Upgrading Europe to Overweight EURO $STOXX 50 $FEZ; Supports Holding on MSCI $ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM. Latest 4-6% pullback remains healthy...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI, EURO STOXX 50, TOPIX Remain Bullish; Buys in Cons Disc, Industrials, Services, Technology

MSCI ACWI, EURO $STOXX 50, $TOPIX Remain Bullish. $ACWI holding above short-term support at $102 (last week's breakout level), though we remain...

Vermilion Research

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