Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>There are multiple signs of overheating in Baidu trading including accelerating stock and option volumes.  </li>
<li>Skew has been driven higher by strong demand for up-strike Calls.</li>
<li>We recommend a hedge that tilts the odds in the holder’s favor while establishing the position at a credit.</li>
</ul>


There are multiple signs of overheating in Baidu trading including accelerating stock and option volumes.  
Skew has been driven higher by strong demand for up-strike Calls.
We recommend a hedge that tilts the odds in the holder’s favor while establishing the position at a credit.


Baidu (9888.HK): Overheated Trading and Skew Dynamics Highlight a Distinct Hedge Opportunity

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mirae Asset Securities

Mirae Asset Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Leading full-service brokerage firm in Vietnam. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>For 2Q25, Baidu reported below-consensus results, with revenue of CNY32.7bn (-4% YoY) and operating profit of CNY3.3bn (-45% YoY).</li><li>Online marketing revenue saw a sharper decline (-16% YoY), hurt by sluggish macro conditions in China and intensifying search engine competition.</li><li>Revenue from iQIYI also declined 11% YoY. In contrast, cloud revenue saw solid growth (+27% YoY). </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

For 2Q25, Baidu reported below-consensus results, with revenue of CNY32.7bn (-4% YoY) and operating profit of CNY3.3bn (-45% YoY).Online marketing revenue saw a sharper decline (-16% YoY), hurt by sluggish macro conditions in China and intensifying search engine competition.Revenue from iQIYI also declined 11% YoY. In contrast, cloud revenue saw solid growth (+27% YoY). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Baidu (9888 HK/Hold)Accelerating Earnings Slowdown

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 5th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Ubtech Robotics, Innovent Biologics, AIA, Trip.Com.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 5th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Ubtech Robotics, Innovent Biologics, AIA, Trip.Com.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Ubtech Robotics, Innovent Biologics, AIA, Trip.Com

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>The official index changes and indicative weights for the June 2025 index rebal event will be announced on Friday 16th May 2025.</li>
<li>We continue to expect zero index changes for June 2025 but we estimate there to be capping flows of US$396mn one-way.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
The official index changes and indicative weights for the June 2025 index rebal event will be announced on Friday 16th May 2025.
We continue to expect zero index changes for June 2025 but we estimate there to be capping flows of US$396mn one-way.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Jun25: US$396mn One-Way; Announcement Tomorrow

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng Internet &amp; IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our flow expectations for the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We have also presented our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review which will take place in September 2025 (regular ADDs/DELs only take place in March and September).</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Internet &amp; IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
In this insight, we take a look at our flow expectations for the June 2025 index rebal event.
We have also presented our index change expectations for the next semiannual index review which will take place in September 2025 (regular ADDs/DELs only take place in March and September).


Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Jun25: US$317mn One-Way in June; Three Changes Likely in September

China

Baidu, Inc. operates an Internet search engine. The Company offers algorithmic search, enterprise search, news, MP3, and image searches, voice assistance, online storage, and navigation services. Baidu serves clients globally.

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Baidu (9888 HK)

Baidu (9888.HK): Overheated Trading and Skew Dynamics Highlight a Distinct Hedge Opportunity

Trading momentum and skew highlight overheating in Baidu, where a hedge can be structured to tilt odds toward the holder while entering at a credit.

John Ley

Baidu (9888 HK/Hold)Accelerating Earnings Slowdown

For 2Q25, Baidu reported below-consensus results, with revenue of CNY32.7bn (-4% YoY) and operating profit of CNY3.3bn (-45% YoY).

Mirae Asset Securities

HK Short Interest Weekly: Ubtech Robotics, Innovent Biologics, AIA, Trip.Com

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 5th and highlight short interest changes in Ubtech Robotics, Innovent...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Jun25: US$396mn One-Way; Announcement Tomorrow

NetEase (9999 HK), Baidu (9888 HK), and Trip.com Group (9961 HK) are likely to see their free float-adjusted factors get revised upwards and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Jun25: US$317mn One-Way in June; Three Changes Likely in September

We expect US$317mn one-way flows in June 2025 and then there could be three ADDs and three DELs in September 2025. The September 2025 rankings can...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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