External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Banks (incl. SFBs) credit growth was marginally below our estimates, delivering an 11% YoY (vs our expectation of ~12% YoY) growth as banks exit FY25, thereby mirroring systemic growth.</li><li>Slower credit growth (vs expectations) was primarily visible amongst the larger private banks, while most mid-sized banks delivered steady in-line growth.</li><li>The headwinds on credit growth were owing to the continuous and conscious slowdown in the unsecured segments amidst persistent asset quality challenges, particularly microfinance and credit cards and banks’ efforts to align deposit growth with credit growth to maintain balanced LDR.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks (incl. SFBs) credit growth was marginally below our estimates, delivering an 11% YoY (vs our expectation of ~12% YoY) growth as banks exit FY25, thereby mirroring systemic growth.Slower credit growth (vs expectations) was primarily visible amongst the larger private banks, while most mid-sized banks delivered steady in-line growth.The headwinds on credit growth were owing to the continuous and conscious slowdown in the unsecured segments amidst persistent asset quality challenges, particularly microfinance and credit cards and banks’ efforts to align deposit growth with credit growth to maintain balanced LDR.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Top Conviction Ideas - “Banks, Financial Services and Insurance (BFSI)”

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Bajaj Finance: Bajaj Finance’s (BAF) Q4FY25 earnings missed our estimates on account of elevated credit costs (2.3% annualised), despite steady AUM growth (+26% YoY) and improving operating efficiency</li><li>A challenging macro continued to take a toll on asset quality as credit costs trended north of management guidance (2.1% for FY25) even as the management guided for marginal moderation in FY26 credit costs to ~1.9%</li><li>BAF’s post-pandemic cross-functional investments are gradually reflecting in higher throughput and efficiency gains (C/I at 33%, opex-to-AUM at 3.9%), which are likely to sustain over FY26E-FY27E</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bajaj Finance: Bajaj Finance’s (BAF) Q4FY25 earnings missed our estimates on account of elevated credit costs (2.3% annualised), despite steady AUM growth (+26% YoY) and improving operating efficiencyA challenging macro continued to take a toll on asset quality as credit costs trended north of management guidance (2.1% for FY25) even as the management guided for marginal moderation in FY26 credit costs to ~1.9%BAF’s post-pandemic cross-functional investments are gradually reflecting in higher throughput and efficiency gains (C/I at 33%, opex-to-AUM at 3.9%), which are likely to sustain over FY26E-FY27EContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Finance, Trent, Ambuja Cement, Oberoi Realty, IndiaMART InterMESH

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>The RBI’s March 2025 surveys highlight a balanced recovery, with easing inflation expectations, strong rural sentiment, and sector-specific growth prospects across banking, manufacturing, and services.</li>
<li>With moderate credit growth and consumer confidence improving, sectors like agri-finance, retail, and infrastructure are poised for growth, while inflationary pressures and currency depreciation may impact import-dependent companies.</li>
<li>India's economic recovery is steady, with sector-specific positioning crucial. As rural confidence rises and inflation expectations moderate, growth opportunities are more identifiable, especially in rural finance and manufacturing.</li>
</ul>


The RBI’s March 2025 surveys highlight a balanced recovery, with easing inflation expectations, strong rural sentiment, and sector-specific growth prospects across banking, manufacturing, and services.
With moderate credit growth and consumer confidence improving, sectors like agri-finance, retail, and infrastructure are poised for growth, while inflationary pressures and currency depreciation may impact import-dependent companies.
India's economic recovery is steady, with sector-specific positioning crucial. As rural confidence rises and inflation expectations moderate, growth opportunities are more identifiable, especially in rural finance and manufacturing.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious</li>
<li>While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).


Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

<ul><li>The systemic credit growth (as of 21st March, 2025) has tapered to ~11% vs. 15-16% YoY.</li><li>This can be primarily attributed to a meaningful slowdown in the unsecured loans amidst continued asset quality challenges alongside banks, mainly private banks, intending to bring down their LDRs to a balanced level.</li><li>We expect banks under our coverage to deliver ~12% YoY credit growth, largely in line with industry growth. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The systemic credit growth (as of 21st March, 2025) has tapered to ~11% vs. 15-16% YoY.This can be primarily attributed to a meaningful slowdown in the unsecured loans amidst continued asset quality challenges alongside banks, mainly private banks, intending to bring down their LDRs to a balanced level.We expect banks under our coverage to deliver ~12% YoY credit growth, largely in line with industry growth. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q4FY25 Earnings Preview - Banks, Financial Services and Insurance (BFSI)

India

Bajaj Finance is an Indian deposit-taking non-banking financial company (NBFC) that offers a diversified portfolio of financial products and services. These include consumer loans, SME and commercial lending, rural lending, fixed deposits, and various investment and insurance products. The company is headquartered in Pune, India, and was founded on March 25, 1987.

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Bajaj Finance (BAF IN)

Top Conviction Ideas - “Banks, Financial Services and Insurance (BFSI)”

Banks (incl. SFBs) credit growth was marginally below our estimates, delivering an 11% YoY (vs our expectation of ~12% YoY) growth as banks exit...

Axis Direct

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Finance, Trent, Ambuja Cement, Oberoi Realty, IndiaMART InterMESH

Bajaj Finance’s (BAF) Q4FY25 earnings missed our estimates on account of elevated credit costs (2.3% annualised), despite steady AUM growth (+26%...

HDFC Securities

RBI Forward-Looking Survey Analysis

RBI surveys show balanced recovery in India, with rural sentiment strong and growth prospects in banking, manufacturing, and services. Sector...

Nimish Maheshwari

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

Q4FY25 Earnings Preview - Banks, Financial Services and Insurance (BFSI)

We would watch out for management commentary on growth trajectory in FY26 and direction for recovery in the unsecured segments, particularly MFI...

Axis Direct

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Top Conviction Ideas - “Banks, Financial Services and Insurance (BFSI)”

Banks (incl. SFBs) credit growth was marginally below our estimates, delivering an 11% YoY (vs our expectation of ~12% YoY) growth as banks exit...

Axis Direct

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Finance, Trent, Ambuja Cement, Oberoi Realty, IndiaMART InterMESH

Bajaj Finance’s (BAF) Q4FY25 earnings missed our estimates on account of elevated credit costs (2.3% annualised), despite steady AUM growth (+26%...

HDFC Securities

RBI Forward-Looking Survey Analysis

​RBI surveys show balanced recovery in India, with rural sentiment strong and growth prospects in banking, manufacturing, and services. Sector...

Nimish Maheshwari

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities. Looking for the $ACWI rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or...

Vermilion Research

Q4FY25 Earnings Preview - Banks, Financial Services and Insurance (BFSI)

We would watch out for management commentary on growth trajectory in FY26 and direction for recovery in the unsecured segments, particularly MFI...

Axis Direct

RBI surveys show balanced recovery in India, with rural sentiment strong and growth prospects in banking, manufacturing, and services. Sector...