Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Closing Auction Session (CAS) kicked off on 3 August for Indian stocks that are part of the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment of the market.</li>
<li>Daily total turnover in CAS since launch has averaged around US$128m. In comparison, global passives will need to trade around US$4bn of F&amp;O stocks at the CAS on 31 August.</li>
<li>There could be large moves in affected stocks in the lead up to the CAS on Monday, followed by more large moves at CAS, and a potential reversal on Tuesday. </li>
</ul>


The Closing Auction Session (CAS) kicked off on 3 August for Indian stocks that are part of the Futures &amp; Options (F&amp;O) segment of the market.
Daily total turnover in CAS since launch has averaged around US$128m. In comparison, global passives will need to trade around US$4bn of F&amp;O stocks at the CAS on 31 August.
There could be large moves in affected stocks in the lead up to the CAS on Monday, followed by more large moves at CAS, and a potential reversal on Tuesday. 


India: Key CAS Test on Monday as Global Index Rebalances

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>ITC: ITC reported a weak operating print due to a soft cigarette performance along with sustained weakness seen in the agri and paper portfolio</li><li>Cigarette net revenue/EBIT growth was at 4/2%, with volume estimated to have fallen by 1% (5% 4-year CAGR) on a high base</li><li>Differentiated and premium offerings continued to perform well</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ITC: ITC reported a weak operating print due to a soft cigarette performance along with sustained weakness seen in the agri and paper portfolioCigarette net revenue/EBIT growth was at 4/2%, with volume estimated to have fallen by 1% (5% 4-year CAGR) on a high baseDifferentiated and premium offerings continued to perform wellContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ITC, Bajaj Finance, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company

<ul><li>Bajaj Auto: Bajaj Auto’s Q3 PAT at INR20.4bn was ahead of our estimate of INR 19.7bn due to a better-than-expected margin of 20.1% (estimate of 19.5%)</li><li>The margin beat was due to an improved mix and better export realisation</li><li>While BAL has posted a healthy performance in FY24 so far, it is unlikely to sustain it, going forward, as (1) exports will take longer to revive in key markets like Africa and Latin America since they remain stressed due to inflation and fears linger due to current Red Sea crisis, (2) we expect growth rates in domestic motorcycles (and in 3Ws) to normalise in coming quarters on a high base and due to lack of adequate rainfall this fiscal, (3) Triumph is already available off the shelf, and (4) in 2W EVs, BAL is facing acute competitive pressure and uncertainty persists around FAME subsidy sustenance</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bajaj Auto: Bajaj Auto’s Q3 PAT at INR20.4bn was ahead of our estimate of INR 19.7bn due to a better-than-expected margin of 20.1% (estimate of 19.5%)The margin beat was due to an improved mix and better export realisationWhile BAL has posted a healthy performance in FY24 so far, it is unlikely to sustain it, going forward, as (1) exports will take longer to revive in key markets like Africa and Latin America since they remain stressed due to inflation and fears linger due to current Red Sea crisis, (2) we expect growth rates in domestic motorcycles (and in 3Ws) to normalise in coming quarters on a high base and due to lack of adequate rainfall this fiscal, (3) Triumph is already available off the shelf, and (4) in 2W EVs, BAL is facing acute competitive pressure and uncertainty persists around FAME subsidy sustenanceContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Auto, Tech Mahindra, TVS Motor, United Spirits, Hitachi Energy

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
 Highlights: Currently seven pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and five sectors. 
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

 Highlights: Currently seven pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and five sectors. 


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (24 Aug 2026)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>As a part of the circular, the RBI has announced an increase in risk weight to 125% from the current 100% for all consumer credit exposure of commercial banks – both existing and new.</li><li>This will include personal loans but exclude housing, vehicle, and education loans as well as loans against gold and gold jewellery.</li><li>The regulator also increased the risk weight for exposure of consumer credit exposure of NBFCs (outstanding as well as new) categorised as retail loans from the current 100% to 125%.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

As a part of the circular, the RBI has announced an increase in risk weight to 125% from the current 100% for all consumer credit exposure of commercial banks – both existing and new.This will include personal loans but exclude housing, vehicle, and education loans as well as loans against gold and gold jewellery.The regulator also increased the risk weight for exposure of consumer credit exposure of NBFCs (outstanding as well as new) categorised as retail loans from the current 100% to 125%.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BFSI Sector Update - RBI Regulation on Risk Weight

India

Bajaj Finance is an Indian deposit-taking non-banking financial company (NBFC) that offers a diversified portfolio of financial products and services. These include consumer loans, SME and commercial lending, rural lending, fixed deposits, and various investment and insurance products. The company is headquartered in Pune, India, and was founded on March 25, 1987.

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Bajaj Finance (BAF IN)

India: Key CAS Test on Monday as Global Index Rebalances

CAS kicked off on 3 August and turnover has averaged US$128m. A global index rebalance on Monday will require passives to trade many multiples of...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: ITC, Bajaj Finance, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company

ITC: ITC reported a weak operating print due to a soft cigarette performance along with sustained weakness seen in the agri and paper portfolio

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Auto, Tech Mahindra, TVS Motor, United Spirits, Hitachi Energy

Bajaj Auto’s Q3 PAT at INR20.4bn was ahead of our estimate of INR 19.7bn due to a better-than-expected margin of 20.1% (estimate of 19.5%)

HDFC Securities

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (24 Aug 2026)

Discover seven pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

BFSI Sector Update - RBI Regulation on Risk Weight

As a part of the circular, the RBI has announced an increase in risk weight to 125% from the current 100% for all consumer credit exposure of...

Axis Direct

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India: Key CAS Test on Monday as Global Index Rebalances

CAS kicked off on 3 August and turnover has averaged US$128m. A global index rebalance on Monday will require passives to trade many multiples of...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: ITC, Bajaj Finance, Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company

ITC: ITC reported a weak operating print due to a soft cigarette performance along with sustained weakness seen in the agri and paper portfolio

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Auto, Tech Mahindra, TVS Motor, United Spirits, Hitachi Energy

Bajaj Auto’s Q3 PAT at INR20.4bn was ahead of our estimate of INR 19.7bn due to a better-than-expected margin of 20.1% (estimate of 19.5%)

HDFC Securities

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (24 Aug 2026)

​Discover seven pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

BFSI Sector Update - RBI Regulation on Risk Weight

As a part of the circular, the RBI has announced an increase in risk weight to 125% from the current 100% for all consumer credit exposure of...

Axis Direct

Discover seven pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.