Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Creating Wealth through Alpha and Compounding

Yellowstone Equity

Providing unbiased and independent research on Indian equities to global institutions and individual investors


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Regulatory Disclosure: 
Note that Ankit Agrawal (Proprietor of Yellowstone Equity) is a SEBI registered Research Analyst (Registration No.: INH000007216). Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

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Compliance/Grievance Officer:
Name: Ankit Agrawal
Email: services@yellowstoneequity.com
Mobile: +91-7575817289
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8950:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Finance (BAF)</a> reported record disbursals of INR 25498cr in Q4FY26, up 37% YoY, leading to AUM growth of 22% YoY resulting in AUM crossing INR 5 trillion.</li>
<li>The strong growth came despite winding down of the legacy captive 2W and 3W loan book and slow growth (6% YoY) in the MSME segment where BAF has been cautious.</li>
<li>Growth was led by newer segments, especially Gold Loans that have now become 3.5% of AUM and is projected to rise to 5% of AUM by the end of FY27.</li>
</ul>



Bajaj Finance (BAF) reported record disbursals of INR 25498cr in Q4FY26, up 37% YoY, leading to AUM growth of 22% YoY resulting in AUM crossing INR 5 trillion.
The strong growth came despite winding down of the legacy captive 2W and 3W loan book and slow growth (6% YoY) in the MSME segment where BAF has been cautious.
Growth was led by newer segments, especially Gold Loans that have now become 3.5% of AUM and is projected to rise to 5% of AUM by the end of FY27.


Bajaj Finance: FY26 Ends Strong | Upbeat Outlook for FY27

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Asset quality Entering a Favourable Phase: In Q4, BAF witnessed a sequential improvement in asset quality.</li><li>Vintage credit performance across 3MOB, 6MOB and 9MOB continues to reflect significant improvement, indicating improved underwriting outcomes.</li><li>Asset quality improvement would be supported by the winding down of the captive finance book and normalisation in the MSME segment. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Asset quality Entering a Favourable Phase: In Q4, BAF witnessed a sequential improvement in asset quality.Vintage credit performance across 3MOB, 6MOB and 9MOB continues to reflect significant improvement, indicating improved underwriting outcomes.Asset quality improvement would be supported by the winding down of the captive finance book and normalisation in the MSME segment. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bajaj Finance - Scaling with Strength – Growth, Quality, and FinAI Edge!

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-finance-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8950:1" rel="noopener">BAF</a> reported strong Q3FY26 with AUM growth of 22% YoY and PPOP growth of 19% YoY. However, accelerated ECL provisions and labour-code related provisioning dampened the PAT growth (-6% YoY).</li>
<li>Adjusted for the one-time provisions, PAT grew 23% YoY and 7%+ QoQ to reach INR 5317cr. ROA and ROE have been healthy at 4.6% and 19.6%, respectively.</li>
<li>Asset quality has stabilized now as loan loss to average AUF before accelerated ECL provisions came down to 1.91% in Q3FY26 vs 2.16% YoY and 2.05% QoQ.</li>
</ul>



BAF reported strong Q3FY26 with AUM growth of 22% YoY and PPOP growth of 19% YoY. However, accelerated ECL provisions and labour-code related provisioning dampened the PAT growth (-6% YoY).
Adjusted for the one-time provisions, PAT grew 23% YoY and 7%+ QoQ to reach INR 5317cr. ROA and ROE have been healthy at 4.6% and 19.6%, respectively.
Asset quality has stabilized now as loan loss to average AUF before accelerated ECL provisions came down to 1.91% in Q3FY26 vs 2.16% YoY and 2.05% QoQ.


Bajaj Finance (BAF): Strong Q3FY26 | FINAI Transformation Already Making a Mark

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Market Performance - Broader Market Continues to Outperform:</li><li>Indian equities entered Sep’26 with a fundamentally stronger earnings backdrop but a less supportive global liquidity and valuation environment.</li><li>Corporate earnings for Q1FY27 have been among the strongest witnessed in the last ten quarters, yet benchmark indices have struggled to sustain momentum and have experienced corrections from recent highs.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Market Performance - Broader Market Continues to Outperform:Indian equities entered Sep’26 with a fundamentally stronger earnings backdrop but a less supportive global liquidity and valuation environment.Corporate earnings for Q1FY27 have been among the strongest witnessed in the last ten quarters, yet benchmark indices have struggled to sustain momentum and have experienced corrections from recent highs.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Top Picks for the month of September 2026

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>PSU bank credit growth exceeded private-bank growth in FY25 for the first time in more than a decade. Between FY22-FY26, private-bank share fell 14.5 percentage points in home-loans.</li>
<li>Asset quality has converged sharply. Competitive advantage is moving from provisioning relief to funding, pricing, distribution and the ability to deploy capital at an acceptable return.</li>
<li>The sector trade is no longer simply “private quality versus PSU risk.” One must distinguish volume share, absolute profit share, sustainable ROA and the valuation paid for each.</li>
</ul>


PSU bank credit growth exceeded private-bank growth in FY25 for the first time in more than a decade. Between FY22-FY26, private-bank share fell 14.5 percentage points in home-loans.
Asset quality has converged sharply. Competitive advantage is moving from provisioning relief to funding, pricing, distribution and the ability to deploy capital at an acceptable return.
The sector trade is no longer simply “private quality versus PSU risk.” One must distinguish volume share, absolute profit share, sustainable ROA and the valuation paid for each.


Why Indian Private Sector Large Cap Banks Are Not Performing?

India

Bajaj Finance is an Indian deposit-taking non-banking financial company (NBFC) that offers a diversified portfolio of financial products and services. These include consumer loans, SME and commercial lending, rural lending, fixed deposits, and various investment and insurance products. The company is headquartered in Pune, India, and was founded on March 25, 1987.

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Bajaj Finance (BAF IN)

Bajaj Finance: FY26 Ends Strong | Upbeat Outlook for FY27

BAF reported strong growth in Q4FY26. FY27 is all set to see even stronger growth led by tailwinds from FINAI, revival in MSME loan growth and...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Bajaj Finance - Scaling with Strength – Growth, Quality, and FinAI Edge!

Vintage credit performance across 3MOB, 6MOB and 9MOB continues to reflect significant improvement, indicating improved underwriting outcomes.

Axis Direct

Bajaj Finance (BAF): Strong Q3FY26 | FINAI Transformation Already Making a Mark

BAF reported strong Q3FY26 growth. Asset quality has stabilized and the outlook is optimistic. BAF's FINAI transformation has been industry-leading...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Axis Top Picks for the month of September 2026

Indian equities entered Sep’26 with a fundamentally stronger earnings backdrop but a less supportive global liquidity and valuation environment.

Axis Direct

Why Indian Private Sector Large Cap Banks Are Not Performing?

Public-sector banks are using lower lending rates to win prime credit. The pressure on private banks is no longer about bad loans; it is about...

Nimish Maheshwari

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