Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: In India, currently three pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: In India, currently three pair trade opportunities persist across two sectors.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


India: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (5 Oct 2026)

Hitachi Construction Machinery / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and four sectors.
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities persist across three markets and four sectors.


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (5 Oct 2026)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Over 9MFY26, the sector presented two distinct narratives for banks and NBFCs.</li><li>Phase 1 proved challenging, with headwinds largely playing out over H1FY26 and was characterised by slower disbursement and loan growth, deposit mobilisation pressures for banks, squeezed margins given RBI repo rate cuts, and elevated stress in the unsecured lending segments.</li><li>However, Phase 2, which began unfolding in Q3, was meaningfully better with most banks and NBFCs reporting an earnings surprise aided by gradually moderating credit costs as unsecured segment stress ebbed, the ability to maintain NIMs despite rate cuts in Dec’25 (though only partial impact was visible), continuous asset quality improvement, and a decisive credit growth recovery. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Over 9MFY26, the sector presented two distinct narratives for banks and NBFCs.Phase 1 proved challenging, with headwinds largely playing out over H1FY26 and was characterised by slower disbursement and loan growth, deposit mobilisation pressures for banks, squeezed margins given RBI repo rate cuts, and elevated stress in the unsecured lending segments.However, Phase 2, which began unfolding in Q3, was meaningfully better with most banks and NBFCs reporting an earnings surprise aided by gradually moderating credit costs as unsecured segment stress ebbed, the ability to maintain NIMs despite rate cuts in Dec’25 (though only partial impact was visible), continuous asset quality improvement, and a decisive credit growth recovery. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banks and NBFCs Sector Update - Fundamentals Firm, Valuations Now More Compelling

<ul><li>Q3FY26 Earnings Review: Gradual Recovery with Sectoral Divergence: Q3FY26 Nifty earnings trends suggest gradual normalisation with 7% YoY growth for NIFTY50, while Nifty500 and Nifty Small Cap 250 growth stood at 13% and 29% respectively.</li><li>Financials delivered steady performance supported by robust credit growth and stable asset quality.</li><li>Capital goods and infrastructure names reported strong order inflows, reflecting continued momentum in public and private capex. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q3FY26 Earnings Review: Gradual Recovery with Sectoral Divergence: Q3FY26 Nifty earnings trends suggest gradual normalisation with 7% YoY growth for NIFTY50, while Nifty500 and Nifty Small Cap 250 growth stood at 13% and 29% respectively.Financials delivered steady performance supported by robust credit growth and stable asset quality.Capital goods and infrastructure names reported strong order inflows, reflecting continued momentum in public and private capex. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Top Picks for the month of March 2026

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Bajaj Finance: Bajaj Finance’s (BAF) Q3FY26 PAT declined by 6% YoY due to accelerated provisioning of INR 14bn (0.3% of gross advances), given the implementation of minimum LGD floor across businesses</li><li>Adjusted for this one-off, operating performance remained steady with AUM growth of 22% YoY, steady NIMs (~9%), marginal normalization in credit costs (1.92%), and robust profitability (RoE of 19.7%)</li><li>Management has indicated improvement in credit costs during FY27 to sub-1.8%, along with pick-up in the MSME segment</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bajaj Finance: Bajaj Finance’s (BAF) Q3FY26 PAT declined by 6% YoY due to accelerated provisioning of INR 14bn (0.3% of gross advances), given the implementation of minimum LGD floor across businessesAdjusted for this one-off, operating performance remained steady with AUM growth of 22% YoY, steady NIMs (~9%), marginal normalization in credit costs (1.92%), and robust profitability (RoE of 19.7%)Management has indicated improvement in credit costs during FY27 to sub-1.8%, along with pick-up in the MSME segmentContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Finance, Aditya Birla Capital, Mankind Pharma...

India

Bajaj Finance is an Indian deposit-taking non-banking financial company (NBFC) that offers a diversified portfolio of financial products and services. These include consumer loans, SME and commercial lending, rural lending, fixed deposits, and various investment and insurance products. The company is headquartered in Pune, India, and was founded on March 25, 1987.

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Bajaj Finance (BAF IN)

India: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (5 Oct 2026)

Discover three pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (5 Oct 2026)

Discover nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Banks and NBFCs Sector Update - Fundamentals Firm, Valuations Now More Compelling

Phase 1 proved challenging, with headwinds largely playing out over H1FY26 and was characterised by slower disbursement and loan growth, deposit...

Axis Direct

Axis Top Picks for the month of March 2026

Gradual Recovery with Sectoral Divergence: Q3FY26 Nifty earnings trends suggest gradual normalisation with 7% YoY growth for NIFTY50

Axis Direct

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Finance, Aditya Birla Capital, Mankind Pharma...

Bajaj Finance’s (BAF) Q3FY26 PAT declined by 6% YoY due to accelerated provisioning of INR 14bn (0.3% of gross advances), given the implementation...

HDFC Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India: Relative Value Opportunities and Pair Trades (5 Oct 2026)

​Discover three pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (5 Oct 2026)

​Discover nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Banks and NBFCs Sector Update - Fundamentals Firm, Valuations Now More Compelling

Phase 1 proved challenging, with headwinds largely playing out over H1FY26 and was characterised by slower disbursement and loan growth, deposit...

Axis Direct

Axis Top Picks for the month of March 2026

Gradual Recovery with Sectoral Divergence: Q3FY26 Nifty earnings trends suggest gradual normalisation with 7% YoY growth for NIFTY50

Axis Direct

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Finance, Aditya Birla Capital, Mankind Pharma...

Bajaj Finance’s (BAF) Q3FY26 PAT declined by 6% YoY due to accelerated provisioning of INR 14bn (0.3% of gross advances), given the implementation...

HDFC Securities

Discover three pair trade opportunities across two sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Discover nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and four sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.