Indian Accounting Research Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Indian Accounting Research Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

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Forensic Accounting

Balkrishna Industries / Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/balkrishna-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15331:1" rel="noopener">Balkrishna Industries (BIL IN)</a> is one of the big names in Off-Highway Tyre (OHT) segment across the globe.</li>
<li>The company is currently in a capex mode and looks to augment its tyre capacity and expand the carbon black manufacturing.</li>
<li>However, there are some corporate level discomforts regarding the payouts to the stakeholders on the back of capex, and disclosure errs in few lone items on the balance sheet.</li>
</ul>



Balkrishna Industries (BIL IN) is one of the big names in Off-Highway Tyre (OHT) segment across the globe.
The company is currently in a capex mode and looks to augment its tyre capacity and expand the carbon black manufacturing.
However, there are some corporate level discomforts regarding the payouts to the stakeholders on the back of capex, and disclosure errs in few lone items on the balance sheet.


Balkrishna Industries Ltd- Forensic Analysis

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The premiumisation trend continues to remain in focus with UVs and premium 2Ws driving the growth</li><li>The entry-level 2W demand, which picked up in the festive season, has failed to sustain in Q4</li><li>It is pertinent to highlight, however, that demand for 125cc and above continued to be strong</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The premiumisation trend continues to remain in focus with UVs and premium 2Ws driving the growthThe entry-level 2W demand, which picked up in the festive season, has failed to sustain in Q4It is pertinent to highlight, however, that demand for 125cc and above continued to be strongContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Autos: Q4 preview - Premiumisation is the way to go

<ul><li>Given that the festive season this time has been pushed by a month into November, Q2 volume growth appears lower YoY.</li><li>In PVs, while UV demand has held up extremely well, car demand has further decelerated, driving a rich mix for most OEMs.</li><li>CV demand momentum continues to be healthy in Q2. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Given that the festive season this time has been pushed by a month into November, Q2 volume growth appears lower YoY.In PVs, while UV demand has held up extremely well, car demand has further decelerated, driving a rich mix for most OEMs.CV demand momentum continues to be healthy in Q2. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Autos (Q2FY24 Results Preview) - 4Ws to See Margin Boost QoQ

<ul><li>Britannia Industries: Britannia’s Q1FY24 revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 9/38/36% was strong but below expectations</li><li>Transactions grew 9% YoY while volumes were flat, reflecting huge down-trading pressure</li><li>Britannia took price corrections to defend its market share as competitive intensity rose (particularly from local/regional brands)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Britannia Industries: Britannia’s Q1FY24 revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 9/38/36% was strong but below expectationsTransactions grew 9% YoY while volumes were flat, reflecting huge down-trading pressureBritannia took price corrections to defend its market share as competitive intensity rose (particularly from local/regional brands)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Britannia Industries, Godrej Consumers, Balkrishna Industries

<ul><li>ONGC: We maintain our ADD rating on ONGC with a target price of INR 168, based on oil and gas production growth at 5/8% CAGR over FY23-25E, attractive valuations of 3.7x FY24 EPS—an ~31% discount to 5-year average P/E of 5.4x, 0.6x FY24 P/Bv with RoE of ~18% and a dividend yield of ~7%</li><li>However, this is offset by limited earnings potential, owing to the levy of a windfall tax on crude oil prices and a decline in the price of domestically produced APM gas</li><li>Q4FY23 EBITDA was at INR 163bn, coming in below our estimate, owing to higher-than-expected other expenses however, higher exploratory costs and an exceptional item resulted in a quarterly loss of INR 2.5bn</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ONGC: We maintain our ADD rating on ONGC with a target price of INR 168, based on oil and gas production growth at 5/8% CAGR over FY23-25E, attractive valuations of 3.7x FY24 EPS—an ~31% discount to 5-year average P/E of 5.4x, 0.6x FY24 P/Bv with RoE of ~18% and a dividend yield of ~7%However, this is offset by limited earnings potential, owing to the levy of a windfall tax on crude oil prices and a decline in the price of domestically produced APM gasQ4FY23 EBITDA was at INR 163bn, coming in below our estimate, owing to higher-than-expected other expenses however, higher exploratory costs and an exceptional item resulted in a quarterly loss of INR 2.5bnContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Balkrishna Industries, NCC, Sobha, Greenlam Industries

India

Balkrishna Industries Ltd. manufactures automobile tires and tubes. The Company also manufactures different varieties of paper & paper boards and processes synthetic textiles.

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Balkrishna Industries (BIL IN)

Balkrishna Industries Ltd- Forensic Analysis

There are some corporate level discomforts regarding the payouts to the stakeholders on the back of capex, and disclosure errs in few lone items on...

Nitin Mangal

Autos: Q4 preview - Premiumisation is the way to go

The premiumisation trend continues to remain in focus with UVs and premium 2Ws driving the growth. The entry-level 2W demand, which picked up in...

HDFC Securities

Autos (Q2FY24 Results Preview) - 4Ws to See Margin Boost QoQ

In PVs, while UV demand has held up extremely well, car demand has further decelerated, driving a rich mix for most OEMs. CV demand momentum...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Britannia Industries, Godrej Consumers, Balkrishna Industries

Britannia took price corrections to defend its market share as competitive intensity rose (particularly from local/regional brands)

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, Balkrishna Industries, NCC, Sobha, Greenlam Industries

We maintain our ADD rating on ONGC with a target price of INR 168, based on oil and gas production growth at 5/8% CAGR over FY23-25E, attractive...

HDFC Securities

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