European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena / Event-Driven

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS IM)

<ul>
<li>Intesa has raised its offer to €11.375/share, only 0.9% above MPS, while making approval of the BAMI/BGN plan incompatible with its bid.</li>
<li>Delfin’s 17.6% Backing strengthens Intesa ahead of the 29 October vote, but Lovaglio still offers shareholders exposure to further consolidation upside.</li>
<li>Our probability-weighted value is €11.64/share, 3.2% above spot; upside beyond Intesa comes from a further sweetener or the MPS-led strategy.</li>
</ul>


Intesa has raised its offer to €11.375/share, only 0.9% above MPS, while making approval of the BAMI/BGN plan incompatible with its bid.
Delfin’s 17.6% Backing strengthens Intesa ahead of the 29 October vote, but Lovaglio still offers shareholders exposure to further consolidation upside.
Our probability-weighted value is €11.64/share, 3.2% above spot; upside beyond Intesa comes from a further sweetener or the MPS-led strategy.


<ul>
<li>MPS has launched all-share offers for Banco BPM and Banca Generali, transforming its defence against Intesa into a broader consolidation strategy centred on an independent Italian banking group.</li>
<li>Friday closes imply a −2.7% spread for Banco BPM and +8.0% for Banca Generali, highlighting sharply different execution expectations across the two proposed transactions.</li>
<li>Our scenario analysis values MPS at €12.03/share, 4.0% above spot; Banco BPM alone looks credible, while Banca Generali remains the harder leg given Generali’s control.</li>
</ul>


MPS has launched all-share offers for Banco BPM and Banca Generali, transforming its defence against Intesa into a broader consolidation strategy centred on an independent Italian banking group.
Friday closes imply a −2.7% spread for Banco BPM and +8.0% for Banca Generali, highlighting sharply different execution expectations across the two proposed transactions.
Our scenario analysis values MPS at €12.03/share, 4.0% above spot; Banco BPM alone looks credible, while Banca Generali remains the harder leg given Generali’s control.


Intesa / MPS: Lovaglio Turns Defence Into Expansion

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts or bullish price inflections on the broad global indexes (ACWI-US, ACWX-US, EFA-US, and EEM-US) in order to turn bullish.<ul type="disc">
<li>
Actionable Theme: Major Autos/Auto Parts. Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs -- add exposure... see pages 3 and 5-6.</li>
<li>
Actionable Theme: Financials. There continues to be a plethora of attractive Financial stocks globally, ranging from banks and insurance to financial services -- add exposure... see pages 4 and 6-14.</li>
</ul>

Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts or bullish price inflections on the broad global indexes (ACWI-US, ACWX-US, EFA-US, and EEM-US) in order to turn bullish.

Actionable Theme: Major Autos/Auto Parts. Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs -- add exposure... see pages 3 and 5-6.

Actionable Theme: Financials. There continues to be a plethora of attractive Financial stocks globally, ranging from banks and insurance to financial services -- add exposure... see pages 4 and 6-14.


Buying Global Financials & Autos/Auto Parts

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

High debt burdens are not just a developing world phenomenon. The growth of Quantitative Easing programs has resulted in significantly increased debt in many countries, including a good number in the European Union, whose debt levels are masked by accounting procedures.

High debt burdens are not just a developing world phenomenon. The growth of Quantitative Easing programs has resulted in significantly increased debt in many countries, including a good number in the European Union, whose debt levels are masked by accounting procedures.

The Potential for National Financial Default

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

The Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Eurozone continued its downward trend, coming in at 10.2% in March 2016 compared to 10.4% in February and 11.2% in March 2015. The unemployment rate was at its lowest level since August 2011, and the gradual improvement in the labor market is expected to continue.The decline in the unemployment was largely across the board amongst the Eurozone members. It decreased to 10% in France in March 2016 compared to 10.2% in February while it fell to 4.2%…

The Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Eurozone continued its downward trend, coming in at 10.2% in March 2016 compared to 10.4% in February and 11.2% in March 2015. The unemployment rate was at its lowest level since August 2011, and the gradual improvement in the labor market is expected to continue.The decline in the unemployment was largely across the board amongst the Eurozone members. It decreased to 10% in France in March 2016 compared to 10.2% in February while it fell to 4.2%…

Eurozone: Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate Continues to Trend Downwards

Italy

Banca Generali is an Italian private bank specializing in wealth management and financial planning for high-net-worth individuals and affluent clients. It offers tailored investment solutions, asset management, and financial advisory services through a network of financial advisors and private bankers. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Milan, Italy.

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Banca Generali (BGN IM)

Intesa / MPS: For a Few Cents More

Intesa’s extra €0.25 leaves little spread, but the 29 October vote now forces MPS shareholders to choose between €11.375 today and Lovaglio’s...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Intesa / MPS: Lovaglio Turns Defence Into Expansion

MPS has changed the shape of the Intesa battle with two new bids of its own. The shareholder arithmetic, deal mechanics and relative spreads now...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Buying Global Financials & Autos/Auto Parts

Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs. Financials are attractive globally, ranging...

Vermilion Research

The Potential for National Financial Default

High debt burdens are not just a developing world phenomenon. The growth of Quantitative Easing programs has resulted in significantly increased...

Bixmoor

Eurozone: Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate Continues to Trend Downwards

The Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Eurozone continued its downward trend, coming in at 10.2% in March 2016 compared to 10.4% in...

Rajan Govil

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