Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions, Bixmoor

Bixmoor

Bespoke Research on China and neighbouring regions

Bixmoor specialises in providing bespoke research to business, governments and the financial community on China and neighbouring regions. We seek to build long-term relationships with our clients, based on our expertise, our reliability and our determination to find the right solution.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

High debt burdens are not just a developing world phenomenon. The growth of Quantitative Easing programs has resulted in significantly increased debt in many countries, including a good number in the European Union, whose debt levels are masked by accounting procedures.

High debt burdens are not just a developing world phenomenon. The growth of Quantitative Easing programs has resulted in significantly increased debt in many countries, including a good number in the European Union, whose debt levels are masked by accounting procedures.

The Potential for National Financial Default

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

The Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Eurozone continued its downward trend, coming in at 10.2% in March 2016 compared to 10.4% in February and 11.2% in March 2015. The unemployment rate was at its lowest level since August 2011, and the gradual improvement in the labor market is expected to continue.The decline in the unemployment was largely across the board amongst the Eurozone members. It decreased to 10% in France in March 2016 compared to 10.2% in February while it fell to 4.2%…

The Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Eurozone continued its downward trend, coming in at 10.2% in March 2016 compared to 10.4% in February and 11.2% in March 2015. The unemployment rate was at its lowest level since August 2011, and the gradual improvement in the labor market is expected to continue.The decline in the unemployment was largely across the board amongst the Eurozone members. It decreased to 10% in France in March 2016 compared to 10.2% in February while it fell to 4.2%…

Eurozone: Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate Continues to Trend Downwards

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>BMPS has formally chosen the delist-and-merge route for Mediobanca; MB’s board has launched the adviser-led integration process. Next hard catalyst is BMPS’s combined strategic plan on 27 Feb.</li>
<li>Today’s repricing looks “real money”: MB closed €19.18 on &gt;€100m turnover; BMPS €8.558 on &gt;€325m. MB now trades as minority clean-up optionality, not tender-mechanics carry.</li>
<li>The 2025 2.533×BMPS+€0.90 formula is a reference, not an arb anchor. Preferred setup: long MB with lighter beta hedge; avoid a full 2.533 ratio hedge until terms/mechanism are disclosed.</li>
</ul>


BMPS has formally chosen the delist-and-merge route for Mediobanca; MB’s board has launched the adviser-led integration process. Next hard catalyst is BMPS’s combined strategic plan on 27 Feb.
Today’s repricing looks “real money”: MB closed €19.18 on &gt;€100m turnover; BMPS €8.558 on &gt;€325m. MB now trades as minority clean-up optionality, not tender-mechanics carry.
The 2025 2.533×BMPS+€0.90 formula is a reference, not an arb anchor. Preferred setup: long MB with lighter beta hedge; avoid a full 2.533 ratio hedge until terms/mechanism are disclosed.


BMPS–Mediobanca: Delisting Decision Crystallises the Endgame — “what Now?”

<ul>
<li>BMPS closed the re-open at 86.3% of Mediobanca (62.3% initial + ~24pts re-open); settlement 29 Sep. Super-majority secured enables extraordinary resolutions; MB remains listed below 90%/95% thresholds.</li>
<li>MB should hug 2.533×BMPS + €0.90 into 29 Sep; basis widened on flows but typically compresses. Sensitivity: each 1% move in BMPS shifts implied MB ~€0.20 (delta ≈2.533).</li>
<li>Trade: convergence hold long MB/short 2.533× BMPS into settlement; exit unless underwriting merger risk. For BMPS, lower dilution and cash outlay support the equity, tempered by integration and accumulation overhang.</li>
</ul>


BMPS closed the re-open at 86.3% of Mediobanca (62.3% initial + ~24pts re-open); settlement 29 Sep. Super-majority secured enables extraordinary resolutions; MB remains listed below 90%/95% thresholds.
MB should hug 2.533×BMPS + €0.90 into 29 Sep; basis widened on flows but typically compresses. Sensitivity: each 1% move in BMPS shifts implied MB ~€0.20 (delta ≈2.533).
Trade: convergence hold long MB/short 2.533× BMPS into settlement; exit unless underwriting merger risk. For BMPS, lower dilution and cash outlay support the equity, tempered by integration and accumulation overhang.


BMPS–Mediobanca: 86.3% Tendered — What Changes Now?

<ul>
<li>BMPS has 70.5% of Mediobanca after re-open progress (Reuters, 19 Sep). Window closes 22 Sep; settlement 29 Sep. Gross spread ~1.03% on 19 Sep close; convergence momentum and governance transition.</li>
<li>Super-Majority enables extraordinary resolutions; merger remains subject to ECB/SSM, Bank of Italy, and corporate approvals. Expect modest final-day tenders; MB to hug offer formula, with delta ≈2.533 to BMPS.</li>
<li>Trade: convergence hold into final results/29 Sep settlement; maintain tight 2.533 hedge and pre-set rebalance triggers. Directional BMPS bias constructive on lighter dilution/cash; monitor messaging, basis, and any on-market adds.</li>
</ul>


BMPS has 70.5% of Mediobanca after re-open progress (Reuters, 19 Sep). Window closes 22 Sep; settlement 29 Sep. Gross spread ~1.03% on 19 Sep close; convergence momentum and governance transition.
Super-Majority enables extraordinary resolutions; merger remains subject to ECB/SSM, Bank of Italy, and corporate approvals. Expect modest final-day tenders; MB to hug offer formula, with delta ≈2.533 to BMPS.
Trade: convergence hold into final results/29 Sep settlement; maintain tight 2.533 hedge and pre-set rebalance triggers. Directional BMPS bias constructive on lighter dilution/cash; monitor messaging, basis, and any on-market adds.


BMPS–Mediobanca: Super-Majority Secured; Final Day Setup

Italy

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. is an Italian bank offering a comprehensive range of banking and financial services, including retail and corporate banking, wealth management, investment banking, and insurance products. It primarily serves individuals, families, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and corporations. The bank was founded in 1472 and is headquartered in Siena, Italy.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS IM)

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Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS IM)

The Potential for National Financial Default

High debt burdens are not just a developing world phenomenon. The growth of Quantitative Easing programs has resulted in significantly increased...

Bixmoor

Eurozone: Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate Continues to Trend Downwards

The Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Eurozone continued its downward trend, coming in at 10.2% in March 2016 compared to 10.4% in...

Rajan Govil

BMPS–Mediobanca: Delisting Decision Crystallises the Endgame — “what Now?”

BMPS commits to delist and merge Mediobanca; MB board starts adviser-led process. Market reprices MB as minority clean-up optionality into 27 Feb...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BMPS–Mediobanca: 86.3% Tendered — What Changes Now?

BMPS ends re-open at 86.3% of Mediobanca; settlement 29 Sep. MB to track 2.533×BMPS + €0.90 as basis compresses. Convergence long MB/short...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BMPS–Mediobanca: Super-Majority Secured; Final Day Setup

BMPS holds 70.5% of Mediobanca; tender ends 22 Sep, settlement 29 Sep. ~1% spread supports a convergence hold; merger path opens post-approvals....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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