Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Banca Popolare Di Sondrio Scar / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>BPER reopened its offer for Sondrio (21-25 Jul)y, presenting a 2.5% gross spread with settlement due by July 31 — a rare, time-sensitive arbitrage setup for short-term traders.</li>
<li>With 58.15% already secured, additional tenders could push BPER near the 66.7% threshold required for a merger, bypassing the need for a 95% squeeze-out.</li>
<li>The accelerated 5-day window signals strategic pressure on hesitant holders, while the offer’s confirmed execution and annualized IRR over 200% provide attractive asymmetry.</li>
</ul>


BPER reopened its offer for Sondrio (21-25 Jul)y, presenting a 2.5% gross spread with settlement due by July 31 — a rare, time-sensitive arbitrage setup for short-term traders.
With 58.15% already secured, additional tenders could push BPER near the 66.7% threshold required for a merger, bypassing the need for a 95% squeeze-out.
The accelerated 5-day window signals strategic pressure on hesitant holders, while the offer’s confirmed execution and annualized IRR over 200% provide attractive asymmetry.


BPER–Sondrio Reopens: Short-Duration Arbitrage with Strategic Angle

<ul>
<li>BPER acquired 58.35% of Sondrio with an enhanced bid, but low take-up signals shareholder dissatisfaction and opens room for further action.</li>
<li>Revised terms imply a 3.9% gross spread, offering a compelling short-term arbitrage play with estimated 12.4% annualized return.</li>
<li>A potential reopening or share accumulation remains likely, with Unipol’s dual role adding strategic weight and optionality to the situation.</li>
</ul>


BPER acquired 58.35% of Sondrio with an enhanced bid, but low take-up signals shareholder dissatisfaction and opens room for further action.
Revised terms imply a 3.9% gross spread, offering a compelling short-term arbitrage play with estimated 12.4% annualized return.
A potential reopening or share accumulation remains likely, with Unipol’s dual role adding strategic weight and optionality to the situation.


BPER–Sondrio: 3.9% Spread with Optionality on Reopening

<ul>
<li>We remain constructive on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) holds above major support at $90.50-91.50.</li>
<li>We continue to monitor for whether ACWI-US and EEM-US break supports at $90.50-91.50 and $37, or if broken indexes (EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, EAFE) can reclaim supports.</li>
<li>Neither has happened yet, so we remain in wait-and-see mode. We are downgrading non-US small-caps to market weight. Non-US Value remains leadership -- remain overweight/buys in Financials and Communications</li>
</ul>


We remain constructive on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) holds above major support at $90.50-91.50.
We continue to monitor for whether ACWI-US and EEM-US break supports at $90.50-91.50 and $37, or if broken indexes (EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, EAFE) can reclaim supports.
Neither has happened yet, so we remain in wait-and-see mode. We are downgrading non-US small-caps to market weight. Non-US Value remains leadership -- remain overweight/buys in Financials and Communications


MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

<p>We are beginning to see rotations back into risk-on areas of the market, a bullish sign for global equities. This only adds to our constructive outlook; we are bullish and we expect higher prices in the weeks and months ahead. </p>

We are beginning to see rotations back into risk-on areas of the market, a bullish sign for global equities. This only adds to our constructive outlook; we are bullish and we expect higher prices in the weeks and months ahead. 

Global Equity Strategy: Buy Energy & Financials; EM Improving

Italy

Banca Popolare di Sondrio Scrl attracts deposits and offers co-operative banking services.  The Bank offers mortgage and other consumer loans, business loans, closed-end funds, treasury and securities brokerage services, asset management, and portfolio management.  Banca Popolare operates in Italy, Switzerland and Hong Kong.

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Banca Popolare Di Sondrio Scar (BPSO IM)

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

BPER–Sondrio Reopens: Short-Duration Arbitrage with Strategic Angle

Reopened BPER–Sondrio offer offers 2.5% spread in 5 days. Strong execution, high IRR, and merger optionality make this a short-duration arbitrage...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BPER–Sondrio: 3.9% Spread with Optionality on Reopening

BPER’s partial bid for Sondrio leaves a 3.9% spread. Low acceptance, strategic backing, and possible reopening create an attractive short-term...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

MSCI $ACWI, MSCI EM $EEM Still Above Supports at $90.50-$91.50 and $37, though being tested today. Meanwhile, broken indexes (EURO $STOXX 50,...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Buy Energy & Financials; EM Improving

We are seeing rotations back into risk-on areas of the market (Energy & Financials), a bullish sign for global equities. We are bullish and we...

Vermilion Research

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