European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Banca Popolare Di Sondrio Scar / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>BPER reopened its offer for Sondrio (21-25 Jul)y, presenting a 2.5% gross spread with settlement due by July 31 — a rare, time-sensitive arbitrage setup for short-term traders.</li>
<li>With 58.15% already secured, additional tenders could push BPER near the 66.7% threshold required for a merger, bypassing the need for a 95% squeeze-out.</li>
<li>The accelerated 5-day window signals strategic pressure on hesitant holders, while the offer’s confirmed execution and annualized IRR over 200% provide attractive asymmetry.</li>
</ul>


BPER reopened its offer for Sondrio (21-25 Jul)y, presenting a 2.5% gross spread with settlement due by July 31 — a rare, time-sensitive arbitrage setup for short-term traders.
With 58.15% already secured, additional tenders could push BPER near the 66.7% threshold required for a merger, bypassing the need for a 95% squeeze-out.
The accelerated 5-day window signals strategic pressure on hesitant holders, while the offer’s confirmed execution and annualized IRR over 200% provide attractive asymmetry.


BPER–Sondrio Reopens: Short-Duration Arbitrage with Strategic Angle

<ul>
<li>BPER acquired 58.35% of Sondrio with an enhanced bid, but low take-up signals shareholder dissatisfaction and opens room for further action.</li>
<li>Revised terms imply a 3.9% gross spread, offering a compelling short-term arbitrage play with estimated 12.4% annualized return.</li>
<li>A potential reopening or share accumulation remains likely, with Unipol’s dual role adding strategic weight and optionality to the situation.</li>
</ul>


BPER acquired 58.35% of Sondrio with an enhanced bid, but low take-up signals shareholder dissatisfaction and opens room for further action.
Revised terms imply a 3.9% gross spread, offering a compelling short-term arbitrage play with estimated 12.4% annualized return.
A potential reopening or share accumulation remains likely, with Unipol’s dual role adding strategic weight and optionality to the situation.


BPER–Sondrio: 3.9% Spread with Optionality on Reopening

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schibsted-asa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22250:1" rel="noopener">Schibsted/Vend Marketplaces (VENDB NO)</a> is the highest ranked non-constituent. However, its addition is uncertain due to share class liquidity.</li>
<li>The main forecasted additions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zegona-communications-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25686:1" rel="noopener">Zegona Communications (ZEG LN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nordex-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21682:1" rel="noopener">Nordex SE (NDX1 GR)</a> following price rallies.</li>
<li>The main forecasted deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/verallia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36586:1" rel="noopener">Verallia (VRLA FP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banca-popolare-di-sondrio-scar" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21166:1" rel="noopener">Banca Popolare Di Sondrio Scar (BPSO IM)</a> following tender offers that significantly reduced their free float.</li>
</ul>



Schibsted/Vend Marketplaces (VENDB NO) is the highest ranked non-constituent. However, its addition is uncertain due to share class liquidity.
The main forecasted additions are Zegona Communications (ZEG LN) and Nordex SE (NDX1 GR) following price rallies.
The main forecasted deletions are Verallia (VRLA FP) and Banca Popolare Di Sondrio Scar (BPSO IM) following tender offers that significantly reduced their free float.


STOXX Europe600 Sep25 Forecast: ZEG, NDX1, FRA to Enter; VRLA, BPSO, EMBRACB to Exit

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus NV (PRX NA)</a> is elevated vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> as the accretion trade unfolds.</li>
<li>As rates go up, investors may opt for direct exposure to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>, as opposed to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a> indirectly, contributing to short squeezing JPB.</li>
<li>Expect near-term weakness in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a>, IF the exclusivity with Blackrock/MSC ends this weekend without resolution.</li>
</ul>



Prosus NV (PRX NA) is elevated vs. Tencent (700 HK) as the accretion trade unfolds.
As rates go up, investors may opt for direct exposure to Japan Post Bank (7182 JP), as opposed to Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) indirectly, contributing to short squeezing JPB.
Expect near-term weakness in CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK), IF the exclusivity with Blackrock/MSC ends this weekend without resolution.


Last Week In Event SPACE: Prosus/Tencent, Japan Post Bank, CK Holdings, Seven & I

Italy

Banca Popolare di Sondrio Scrl attracts deposits and offers co-operative banking services.  The Bank offers mortgage and other consumer loans, business loans, closed-end funds, treasury and securities brokerage services, asset management, and portfolio management.  Banca Popolare operates in Italy, Switzerland and Hong Kong.

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Banca Popolare Di Sondrio Scar (BPSO IM)

BPER–Sondrio Reopens: Short-Duration Arbitrage with Strategic Angle

Reopened BPER–Sondrio offer offers 2.5% spread in 5 days. Strong execution, high IRR, and merger optionality make this a short-duration arbitrage...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BPER–Sondrio: 3.9% Spread with Optionality on Reopening

BPER’s partial bid for Sondrio leaves a 3.9% spread. Low acceptance, strategic backing, and possible reopening create an attractive short-term...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

STOXX Europe600 Sep25 Forecast: ZEG, NDX1, FRA to Enter; VRLA, BPSO, EMBRACB to Exit

Uncertain inclusion: VENDB due to share class liquidity. High probability inclusions: ZEG and NDX1 following price rallies. High probability...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Last Week In Event SPACE: Prosus/Tencent, Japan Post Bank, CK Holdings, Seven & I

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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