European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>BBVA has updated its hostile takeover offer to Banco Sabadell shareholders, proposing a cash payment of €0.29 and modifying the exchange ratio to 1 BBVA SM x 5.0196 SAB SM.</li>
<li>The adjustment aims to account for the dividends paid by both banks, as outlined in the initial announcement from May 2024. Current gross spread (ex-dividend) is -2.99%.</li>
<li>I believe this adjustment (merely optical) will be insufficient to convince Sabadell’s retail shareholders, many of whom are also clients and have an emotional attachment to the bank.</li>
</ul>


BBVA has updated its hostile takeover offer to Banco Sabadell shareholders, proposing a cash payment of €0.29 and modifying the exchange ratio to 1 BBVA SM x 5.0196 SAB SM.
The adjustment aims to account for the dividends paid by both banks, as outlined in the initial announcement from May 2024. Current gross spread (ex-dividend) is -2.99%.
I believe this adjustment (merely optical) will be insufficient to convince Sabadell’s retail shareholders, many of whom are also clients and have an emotional attachment to the bank.


BBVA/Sabadell: Adjustment of Exchange Equation

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, ORTEX

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nokia-oyj" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21754:1" rel="noopener">Nokia OYJ (NOKIA FH)</a> is currently the lowest ranked security in SX5E but still above the exit threshold. Its potential deletion can cause the addition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dsm-firmenich-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43730:1" rel="noopener">DSM-Firmenich (DSFIR NA)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-post-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21608:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Post (DHL GR)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reckitt-benckiser-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22105:1" rel="noopener">Reckitt Benckiser (RKT LN)</a> are below the SX5P exit threshold. Their deletion can cause the addition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intesa-sanpaolo-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21200:1" rel="noopener">Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP IM)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bilbao-vizcaya-argentari" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21251:1" rel="noopener">Banco Bilbao (BBVA SM)</a> .</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cap-gemini-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21411:1" rel="noopener">Cap Gemini SA (CAP FP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/compass-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21880:1" rel="noopener">Compass (CPG LN)</a> are examples of companies with significant market caps which are excluded due to supersector coverage. </li>
</ul>



Nokia OYJ (NOKIA FH) is currently the lowest ranked security in SX5E but still above the exit threshold. Its potential deletion can cause the addition of DSM-Firmenich (DSFIR NA). 

Deutsche Post (DHL GR) &amp; Reckitt Benckiser (RKT LN) are below the SX5P exit threshold. Their deletion can cause the addition of Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP IM) &amp; Banco Bilbao (BBVA SM) .

Cap Gemini SA (CAP FP) and Compass (CPG LN) are examples of companies with significant market caps which are excluded due to supersector coverage. 


STOXX 50: First September Forecasts for Europe and Eurozone

<ul>
<li>Banco de Sabadell’s Q2 2024 results highlight strong performance, strategic progress, and effective capital management.</li>
<li>Sabadell is currently trading at a 0.89x P/TBV (vs. 5-y 0.41x average), accurately representing its profitability and RoTE outlook. It is also trading at 7.5x Fwd P/E.</li>
<li>BBVA’s takeover bid is unlikely to succeed unless BBVA enhances the share exchange ratio or includes some cash. Gross spread (1 BBVA x 4.83 SAB) is just 3.4%.</li>
</ul>


Banco de Sabadell’s Q2 2024 results highlight strong performance, strategic progress, and effective capital management.
Sabadell is currently trading at a 0.89x P/TBV (vs. 5-y 0.41x average), accurately representing its profitability and RoTE outlook. It is also trading at 7.5x Fwd P/E.
BBVA’s takeover bid is unlikely to succeed unless BBVA enhances the share exchange ratio or includes some cash. Gross spread (1 BBVA x 4.83 SAB) is just 3.4%.


BBVA/Sabadell: Deal Uncertainty Grows After Sabadell's Results

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Colour me perplexed. Murakami Group ran up <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-matsushima-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13569:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)</a>'s share price in acquiring 29%. The pattern was clear, but one assumes everyone in-group was on the same page.</li>
<li>Two activist shareholders. And long only upping its stake. Heavily discounted <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)</a> is in play.</li>
<li>A HUGE new buyback for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kansai-paint-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13340:1" rel="noopener">Kansai Paint (4613 JP)</a>. Really big. Buy Kansai Paint vs Nippon Paint. One can buy the pop. One can buy any dips after the pop. </li>
</ul>


Colour me perplexed. Murakami Group ran up Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)'s share price in acquiring 29%. The pattern was clear, but one assumes everyone in-group was on the same page.
Two activist shareholders. And long only upping its stake. Heavily discounted China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK) is in play.
A HUGE new buyback for Kansai Paint (4613 JP). Really big. Buy Kansai Paint vs Nippon Paint. One can buy the pop. One can buy any dips after the pop. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, China Merchants,Kansai Paint, Teijin, Sciclone Pharma

<ul>
<li>On 24 May, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bilbao-vizcaya-argentari" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21251:1" rel="noopener">Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM)</a> submitted the authorisation request for its all-stock offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-de-sabadell-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21295:1" rel="noopener">Banco De Sabadell SA (SAB SM)</a>. Closing expected to take 6-8 months.</li>
<li>Gross spread (CSP 27 May) is 7.6%, which This translates in a 52% implied probability of deal success. The fixed income market appears to share this view.</li>
<li>Nevertheless, from a long-only perspective, the risk/reward of Sabadell is interesting. The deal values Sabadell's shares at €2.07 each, an implied equity value of €11,187 million, for a 0.92 P/TBV.</li>
</ul>


On 24 May, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM) submitted the authorisation request for its all-stock offer for Banco De Sabadell SA (SAB SM). Closing expected to take 6-8 months.
Gross spread (CSP 27 May) is 7.6%, which This translates in a 52% implied probability of deal success. The fixed income market appears to share this view.
Nevertheless, from a long-only perspective, the risk/reward of Sabadell is interesting. The deal values Sabadell's shares at €2.07 each, an implied equity value of €11,187 million, for a 0.92 P/TBV.


BBVA Files Hostile Offer: Conditions, Defences and Probabilities

Spain

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. attracts deposits and offers retail, wholesale, and investment banking services.  The Bank offers consumer and mortgage loans, private banking, asset management, insurance, mutual funds, and securities brokerage services.  It operates in Europe, Latin America, United States, China and Turkey.

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Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM)

BBVA/Sabadell: Adjustment of Exchange Equation

BBVA has updated its hostile takeover offer to Banco Sabadell shareholders, proposing a cash payment of €0.29 and modifying the exchange ratio to 1...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

STOXX 50: First September Forecasts for Europe and Eurozone

In SX5E, Nokia might be replaced by DSM-Firmenich, while in SX5P Reckitt Benckiser and Deutsche Post may be replaced by Intesa Sanpaolo and Banco...

Dimitris Ioannidis

BBVA/Sabadell: Deal Uncertainty Grows After Sabadell's Results

Banco de Sabadell's strong Q2 performance and strategic progress may deter BBVA's takeover bid without improved terms. Trading at 0.89x P/TBV and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, China Merchants,Kansai Paint, Teijin, Sciclone Pharma

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

BBVA Files Hostile Offer: Conditions, Defences and Probabilities

BBVA submits authorization request for all-stock offer for Sabadell, with deal expected to close in 6-8 months. Gross spread indicates 52%...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

BBVA/Sabadell: Adjustment of Exchange Equation

BBVA has updated its hostile takeover offer to Banco Sabadell shareholders, proposing a cash payment of €0.29 and modifying the exchange ratio to 1...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

STOXX 50: First September Forecasts for Europe and Eurozone

​In SX5E, Nokia might be replaced by DSM-Firmenich, while in SX5P Reckitt Benckiser and Deutsche Post may be replaced by Intesa Sanpaolo and Banco...

Dimitris Ioannidis

BBVA/Sabadell: Deal Uncertainty Grows After Sabadell's Results

​Banco de Sabadell's strong Q2 performance and strategic progress may deter BBVA's takeover bid without improved terms. Trading at 0.89x P/TBV and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, China Merchants,Kansai Paint, Teijin, Sciclone Pharma

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

BBVA Files Hostile Offer: Conditions, Defences and Probabilities

​BBVA submits authorization request for all-stock offer for Sabadell, with deal expected to close in 6-8 months. Gross spread indicates 52%...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

In SX5E, Nokia might be replaced by DSM-Firmenich, while in SX5P Reckitt Benckiser and Deutsche Post may be replaced by Intesa Sanpaolo and Banco...

Banco de Sabadell's strong Q2 performance and strategic progress may deter BBVA's takeover bid without improved terms. Trading at 0.89x P/TBV and...

BBVA submits authorization request for all-stock offer for Sabadell, with deal expected to close in 6-8 months. Gross spread indicates 52%...