Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deutsche-post-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21608:1" rel="noopener">Deutsche Post (DHL GR)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reckitt-benckiser-group-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22105:1" rel="noopener">Reckitt Benckiser (RKT LN)</a> are the top two candidates for deletion with 7-9% below the exit threshold. Forecasted supply is $200m and 2 ADV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intesa-sanpaolo-spa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21200:1" rel="noopener">Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP IM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/london-stock-exchange-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22034:1" rel="noopener">London Stock Exchange (LSEG LN)</a> are the top two candidates for addition by replacement. Forecasted demand is $330m and 1-2 ADV.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bilbao-vizcaya-argentari" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21251:1" rel="noopener"></a>The highest ranked between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bilbao-vizcaya-argentari" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21251:1" rel="noopener">Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA SM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industria-de-diseno-textil-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21278:1" rel="noopener">Industria De Diseno Textil (ITX SM)</a> could become the third addition, conditional on the deletion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/basf-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21585:1" rel="noopener">BASF (BAS GR)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Deutsche Post (DHL GR) and Reckitt Benckiser (RKT LN) are the top two candidates for deletion with 7-9% below the exit threshold. Forecasted supply is $200m and 2 ADV.

Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP IM) and London Stock Exchange (LSEG LN) are the top two candidates for addition by replacement. Forecasted demand is $330m and 1-2 ADV.

The highest ranked between Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA SM) and Industria De Diseno Textil (ITX SM) could become the third addition, conditional on the deletion of BASF (BAS GR).


STOXX Europe 50: DHL's $200M Departure, ISP and LSEG Deliver Instead

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
 <li>
Dominant Market Positions in Core Geographies: BBVA holds a leading banking position in Spain and is the largest financial institution in Mexico, with these two markets contributing the majority of group profits. This geographic diversification, biased towards higher-growth emerging markets, provides earnings resilience through different economic cycles.</li>
 <li>
Pioneering Digital Transformation: The bank is a leader in digital banking, with a high percentage of customers acquired through digital channels and a strong focus on leveraging data, AI, and technology to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency. This digital-first strategy is a key competitive advantage against both traditional peers and new fintech entrants.</li>
 <li>
Strong Profitability and Shareholder Returns: BBVA has demonstrated robust profitability, with a Return on Tangible Equity (ROTE) that is among the highest in the European banking sector. This financial strength supports significant shareholder returns through a combination of cash dividends and substantial share buyback programs.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  
Dominant Market Positions in Core Geographies: BBVA holds a leading banking position in Spain and is the largest financial institution in Mexico, with these two markets contributing the majority of group profits. This geographic diversification, biased towards higher-growth emerging markets, provides earnings resilience through different economic cycles.
  
Pioneering Digital Transformation: The bank is a leader in digital banking, with a high percentage of customers acquired through digital channels and a strong focus on leveraging data, AI, and technology to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency. This digital-first strategy is a key competitive advantage against both traditional peers and new fintech entrants.
  
Strong Profitability and Shareholder Returns: BBVA has demonstrated robust profitability, with a Return on Tangible Equity (ROTE) that is among the highest in the European banking sector. This financial strength supports significant shareholder returns through a combination of cash dividends and substantial share buyback programs.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM) - Apr 2026

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>BBVA pivots decisively from failed M&amp;A to its largest-ever buyback, closing the Sabadell chapter and restoring capital-return clarity. The shift reshapes both valuation optics and near-term trading dynamics.</li>
<li>EPS and ROE accretion are mechanically meaningful, but the real event-driven angle lies in timing: accelerating capital return materially shortens the path from capital generation to per-share value.</li>
<li>A sustained buyback equivalent to ~8–10% of daily liquidity introduces ongoing technical support, reduces uncertainty-driven under-ownership, and sets up incremental flow-driven upside rather than a one-off re-rating.</li>
</ul>


BBVA pivots decisively from failed M&amp;A to its largest-ever buyback, closing the Sabadell chapter and restoring capital-return clarity. The shift reshapes both valuation optics and near-term trading dynamics.
EPS and ROE accretion are mechanically meaningful, but the real event-driven angle lies in timing: accelerating capital return materially shortens the path from capital generation to per-share value.
A sustained buyback equivalent to ~8–10% of daily liquidity introduces ongoing technical support, reduces uncertainty-driven under-ownership, and sets up incremental flow-driven upside rather than a one-off re-rating.


Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group / Technical Analysis

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JP)

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.</li>
<li>Support at $152.35-$153.70 on ACWI-US must continue to hold for us to maintain our near-term bullish outlook.</li>
<li>Despite our bullish outlook, we see some concerning developments that lead us to believe this current consolidation is likely to continue for the foreseeable future--as initially outlined on July 14</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.
Support at $152.35-$153.70 on ACWI-US must continue to hold for us to maintain our near-term bullish outlook.
Despite our bullish outlook, we see some concerning developments that lead us to believe this current consolidation is likely to continue for the foreseeable future--as initially outlined on July 14


Focus Remains on Non-A.I. Areas; Europe Remains Attractive; Energy, Gold Miners, Staples, Financials

Spain

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. attracts deposits and offers retail, wholesale, and investment banking services.  The Bank offers consumer and mortgage loans, private banking, asset management, insurance, mutual funds, and securities brokerage services.  It operates in Europe, Latin America, United States, China and Turkey.

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Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM)

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

With the MSCI $ACWI approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here and believe caution is...

Vermilion Research

STOXX Europe 50: DHL's $200M Departure, ISP and LSEG Deliver Instead

SX5P September 2024 Announcement: LSEG and ISP were the announced additions. DHL and RKT were the announced deletions. SX5E September 2024...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Primer: Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari (BBVA SM) - Apr 2026

Dominant Market Positions in Core Geographies: BBVA holds a leading banking position in Spain and is the largest financial institution in...

αSK Primers

BBVA: Capital, Not Consolidation

BBVA’s €3.96bn buyback closes the Sabadell saga and accelerates capital return. EPS/ROE accretion is tangible, but the real catalyst is flow...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Focus Remains on Non-A.I. Areas; Europe Remains Attractive; Energy, Gold Miners, Staples, Financials

Focus Remains on Non-A.I. Areas; Europe Remains Attractive; Actionable Themes: Energy, Gold Miners, Consumer Staples, Services, and Financials

Vermilion Research

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