European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The BBVA-Sabadell offer failed with &lt;30% acceptance, as institutional and retail shareholders decisively rejected the all-stock, no-premium structure.</li>
<li>Our long SAB / short BBVA trade worked tactically near expiry, as the market rewarded standalone value and capital flexibility.</li>
<li>The outcome reinforces that hostile, low-premium, all-share deals rarely succeed in Europe — governance, sentiment, and structure matter as much as price.</li>
</ul>


The BBVA-Sabadell offer failed with &lt;30% acceptance, as institutional and retail shareholders decisively rejected the all-stock, no-premium structure.
Our long SAB / short BBVA trade worked tactically near expiry, as the market rewarded standalone value and capital flexibility.
The outcome reinforces that hostile, low-premium, all-share deals rarely succeed in Europe — governance, sentiment, and structure matter as much as price.


BBVA–Sabadell: Deal Fails Decisively — Institutional and Governance Friction Ends 17-Month Saga

<ul>
<li>BBVA secures 20%+ acceptance with one day left; gross spread at close is +2.9%. Market focus now on final institutional flows and threshold risk into 10 Oct deadline.</li>
<li>Most hedge funds expected to tender to avoid being caught in a non-event or downside skew if BBVA walks; second OPA would be all-cash but at the same price.</li>
<li>Long SAB / short BBVA remains tactically attractive, with asymmetry reduced but not gone. Borrow demand light but may rise as index tracking and hedge unwinds converge into result publication.</li>
</ul>


BBVA secures 20%+ acceptance with one day left; gross spread at close is +2.9%. Market focus now on final institutional flows and threshold risk into 10 Oct deadline.
Most hedge funds expected to tender to avoid being caught in a non-event or downside skew if BBVA walks; second OPA would be all-cash but at the same price.
Long SAB / short BBVA remains tactically attractive, with asymmetry reduced but not gone. Borrow demand light but may rise as index tracking and hedge unwinds converge into result publication.


BBVA-Sabadell: Final Stretch — Risk/Reward Tilting Sharply

<ul>
<li>BBVA’s revised all-share offer removes the discount but offers minimal premium, testing institutional appetite amid weak synergies and a fixed acceptance window ending 7 October.</li>
<li>The absence of cash and refusal to raise terms again leave limited upside optionality, making the risk/reward still favorable for a tactical long SAB / short BBVA trade.</li>
<li>Key focus now shifts to institutional sentiment, final acceptance levels, and governance risks, as tax neutrality alone may not be enough to ensure majority support.</li>
</ul>


BBVA’s revised all-share offer removes the discount but offers minimal premium, testing institutional appetite amid weak synergies and a fixed acceptance window ending 7 October.
The absence of cash and refusal to raise terms again leave limited upside optionality, making the risk/reward still favorable for a tactical long SAB / short BBVA trade.
Key focus now shifts to institutional sentiment, final acceptance levels, and governance risks, as tax neutrality alone may not be enough to ensure majority support.


BBVA-Sabadell: All-Stock, All-In — But Not a Done Deal

<ul>
<li>BBVA’s bid goes live on 8 Sept, but a –8.71% spread and poor optics keep tactical long SAB / short BBVA trades attractive.</li>
<li>Sabadell continues to boost standalone appeal via dividends, TSB sale, and strategic capital returns, reducing shareholder incentive to tender at current terms.</li>
<li>Legal overhang and merger restrictions extend into 2028, capping synergies and reinforcing the asymmetry in event-driven positioning ahead of potential bid adjustments.</li>
</ul>


BBVA’s bid goes live on 8 Sept, but a –8.71% spread and poor optics keep tactical long SAB / short BBVA trades attractive.
Sabadell continues to boost standalone appeal via dividends, TSB sale, and strategic capital returns, reducing shareholder incentive to tender at current terms.
Legal overhang and merger restrictions extend into 2028, capping synergies and reinforcing the asymmetry in event-driven positioning ahead of potential bid adjustments.


BBVA-Sabadell: Deal Launches Underwater, Arbitrage Still Asymmetric

<ul>
<li>BBVA’s bid for Sabadell remains underwater, with a –6.8% spread despite a 29% BBVA's rally. The latest exchange ratio worsens optics; a cash bump may be needed to secure acceptance.</li>
<li>Legal and regulatory overhang persists, with BBVA appealing Spain's three-year integration block. The outcome may reshape synergy capture but remains slow-moving, leaving short-term deal value limited and execution uncertain.</li>
<li>Tactical opportunity remains in long SAB / short BBVA, with September’s acceptance window approaching. Unless terms improve, rejection risk is high; fundamentals and shareholder sentiment increasingly favour Sabadell’s standalone path.</li>
</ul>


BBVA’s bid for Sabadell remains underwater, with a –6.8% spread despite a 29% BBVA's rally. The latest exchange ratio worsens optics; a cash bump may be needed to secure acceptance.
Legal and regulatory overhang persists, with BBVA appealing Spain's three-year integration block. The outcome may reshape synergy capture but remains slow-moving, leaving short-term deal value limited and execution uncertain.
Tactical opportunity remains in long SAB / short BBVA, with September’s acceptance window approaching. Unless terms improve, rejection risk is high; fundamentals and shareholder sentiment increasingly favour Sabadell’s standalone path.


BBVA-Sabadell: Spread Too Thin, Sabadell Terms Weaken Again

Spain

Banco de Sabadell SA attracts deposits and offers commercial banking services. The Bank offers mortgage, consumer, student, and building improvement loans, private banking services, and insurance, and sponsors Visa credit cards.  The Bank operates branches throughout Spain, elsewhere in Europe, the Caribbean, the Americas, and Asia.

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Banco De Sabadell SA (SAB SM)

BBVA–Sabadell: Deal Fails Decisively — Institutional and Governance Friction Ends 17-Month Saga

BBVA’s hostile bid for Sabadell failed with <30% acceptance. Our tactical long SAB / short BBVA trade delivered. Hostile, no-premium, all-share...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BBVA-Sabadell: Final Stretch — Risk/Reward Tilting Sharply

BBVA’s all-stock offer for Sabadell nears expiry with rising momentum but weak structure. Final acceptances hold the key. Tactical long SAB / short...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BBVA-Sabadell: All-Stock, All-In — But Not a Done Deal

BBVA’s improved all-stock offer ends the discount but leaves minimal premium. With no bump coming, sentiment and threshold risk dominate. Tactical...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BBVA-Sabadell: Deal Launches Underwater, Arbitrage Still Asymmetric

BBVA’s bid is live but unattractive. With Sabadell gaining strength and the spread still wide, tactical long SAB / short BBVA positioning offers...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BBVA-Sabadell: Spread Too Thin, Sabadell Terms Weaken Again

BBVA’s bid for Sabadell remains unattractive post-adjustment. Legal risk, negative spread, and rising SAB value tilt risk-reward toward rejection....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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