European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Sabadell approves €3.1bn TSB sale and €0.50 dividend, enhancing standalone value and reducing downside in a deal-break scenario; BBVA’s unchanged offer now implies a –8.1% gross spread.</li>
<li>Spread has narrowed from –15.3% to –8.1%, as market reprices bump probability or resilient standalone outcome; dividend payout creates valuation floor, reshaping risk-reward for arbitrageurs.</li>
<li>Base case: BBVA must revise terms or risk rejection and deferred re-engagement; standalone plan is credible, capitalised, and shareholder-friendly, with payout and CET1 strength supporting defensive positioning.</li>
</ul>


Sabadell approves €3.1bn TSB sale and €0.50 dividend, enhancing standalone value and reducing downside in a deal-break scenario; BBVA’s unchanged offer now implies a –8.1% gross spread.
Spread has narrowed from –15.3% to –8.1%, as market reprices bump probability or resilient standalone outcome; dividend payout creates valuation floor, reshaping risk-reward for arbitrageurs.
Base case: BBVA must revise terms or risk rejection and deferred re-engagement; standalone plan is credible, capitalised, and shareholder-friendly, with payout and CET1 strength supporting defensive positioning.


BBVA/Sabadell: AGM Approvals Lock in Value, Raise Bar for Deal Success

<ul>
<li>Sabadell's TSB sale unlocks €3.4B in value and supports a €0.50/share special dividend, reducing appeal of BBVA’s current hostile bid.</li>
<li>BBVA maintains its offer despite regulatory constraints and limited synergy visibility for 3–5 years.</li>
<li>Options activity and share price suggest market expects either a bid bump or re-rating, with dividend yield softening downside.</li>
</ul>


Sabadell's TSB sale unlocks €3.4B in value and supports a €0.50/share special dividend, reducing appeal of BBVA’s current hostile bid.
BBVA maintains its offer despite regulatory constraints and limited synergy visibility for 3–5 years.
Options activity and share price suggest market expects either a bid bump or re-rating, with dividend yield softening downside.


BBVA/Sabadell Update: TSB Sale Shifts Dynamics, Adds Dividend Optionality

<ul>
<li>Abadell trades above BBVA’s offer, implying market expectations for either a bid bump or dividend windfall (€0.12–€0.24/share in one-off distributions) from the upcoming TSB sale.</li>
<li>Long SAB / short BBVA remains an attractive pair trade to capture deal asymmetry while hedging beta and political risk.</li>
<li>September options at €2.70 strike offer tactical setups: long calls for convex upside, puts for hedge, or synthetic longs for capital-efficient exposure.</li>
</ul>


Abadell trades above BBVA’s offer, implying market expectations for either a bid bump or dividend windfall (€0.12–€0.24/share in one-off distributions) from the upcoming TSB sale.
Long SAB / short BBVA remains an attractive pair trade to capture deal asymmetry while hedging beta and political risk.
September options at €2.70 strike offer tactical setups: long calls for convex upside, puts for hedge, or synthetic longs for capital-efficient exposure.


BBVA/Sabadell: Potential BBVA Bump, TSB Dividend Catalyst, and Positioning Via Equity and Options

<ul>
<li>Sabadell trades above the implied offer value, signaling investor expectations of a revised bid or deal failure.</li>
<li>Government-Imposed integration freeze severely impairs BBVA’s ability to realize synergies.</li>
<li>Political dependence on Catalan nationalist parties complicates execution despite formal regulatory clearance.</li>
</ul>


Sabadell trades above the implied offer value, signaling investor expectations of a revised bid or deal failure.
Government-Imposed integration freeze severely impairs BBVA’s ability to realize synergies.
Political dependence on Catalan nationalist parties complicates execution despite formal regulatory clearance.


BBVA/Sabadell: Trading Above Terms After Government Imposes Integration Freeze

<ul>
<li>Sabadell is exploring a sale of TSB amid BBVA’s hostile bid, with offers in the €2.0–2.35B range.</li>
<li>A sale at those levels would imply a small capital loss, not a gain, in my view.</li>
<li>Strategic value remains: a divestment could disrupt BBVA’s plans, raise cash, or fund returns.</li>
</ul>


Sabadell is exploring a sale of TSB amid BBVA’s hostile bid, with offers in the €2.0–2.35B range.
A sale at those levels would imply a small capital loss, not a gain, in my view.
Strategic value remains: a divestment could disrupt BBVA’s plans, raise cash, or fund returns.


TSB: Divestment as a Defensive Lever in Sabadell’s BBVA Saga

Spain

Banco de Sabadell SA attracts deposits and offers commercial banking services. The Bank offers mortgage, consumer, student, and building improvement loans, private banking services, and insurance, and sponsors Visa credit cards.  The Bank operates branches throughout Spain, elsewhere in Europe, the Caribbean, the Americas, and Asia.

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Banco De Sabadell SA (SAB SM)

BBVA/Sabadell: AGM Approvals Lock in Value, Raise Bar for Deal Success

TSB sale and €0.50 dividend reshape Sabadell’s standalone value. With a –8.1% spread, BBVA’s offer looks stale. Market now pricing in a bump or...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BBVA/Sabadell Update: TSB Sale Shifts Dynamics, Adds Dividend Optionality

TSB sale reshapes Sabadell’s story: BBVA’s bid looks stale, €0.50 dividend looms, and options imply upside. Long SAB / Short BBVA remains...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BBVA/Sabadell: Potential BBVA Bump, TSB Dividend Catalyst, and Positioning Via Equity and Options

Sabadell trades above BBVA’s bid on expectations of a deal bump or dividend. With TSB monetisation ahead and liquid options in play, upside...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

BBVA/Sabadell: Trading Above Terms After Government Imposes Integration Freeze

BBVA’s hostile bid for Sabadell faces political resistance and integration restrictions. Sabadell trades above offer, implying market expects a...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

TSB: Divestment as a Defensive Lever in Sabadell’s BBVA Saga

Sabadell may sell TSB to defend against BBVA’s bid. Though not value-accretive, the move raises cash, weakens BBVA’s strategy, and boosts...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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