Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Among bigger cap GEM banks, we pick four longs and one short as our conviction calls for 2024</li>
<li>Our core buys are Bank Mandiri from Indonesia, KB Financial from South Korea, China Merchants Bank and Banco do Brasil</li>
<li>Our key sell is Kotak Mahindra Bank from India which is richly valued, exposed to low prospective earnings growth and has low credit quality coverage</li>
</ul>


Among bigger cap GEM banks, we pick four longs and one short as our conviction calls for 2024
Our core buys are Bank Mandiri from Indonesia, KB Financial from South Korea, China Merchants Bank and Banco do Brasil
Our key sell is Kotak Mahindra Bank from India which is richly valued, exposed to low prospective earnings growth and has low credit quality coverage


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain constructive on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) holds above major support at $90.50-91.50.</li>
<li>We continue to monitor for whether ACWI-US and EEM-US break supports at $90.50-91.50 and $37, or if broken indexes (EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, EAFE) can reclaim supports.</li>
<li>Neither has happened yet, so we remain in wait-and-see mode. We are downgrading non-US small-caps to market weight. Non-US Value remains leadership -- remain overweight/buys in Financials and Communications</li>
</ul>


We remain constructive on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) holds above major support at $90.50-91.50.
We continue to monitor for whether ACWI-US and EEM-US break supports at $90.50-91.50 and $37, or if broken indexes (EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI ex-US, EAFE) can reclaim supports.
Neither has happened yet, so we remain in wait-and-see mode. We are downgrading non-US small-caps to market weight. Non-US Value remains leadership -- remain overweight/buys in Financials and Communications


MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

<ul>
<li>Among bigger cap GEM banks, we pick four longs and two shorts as our conviction calls for 2023</li>
<li>Our core buys are Bank Mandiri from Indonesia, Hana Financial from South Korea, China Construction Bank and BanColombia; we also have a special mentions category for Banco Itau and Nubank</li>
<li>Our key sells are ICICI Bank from India and digital bank Jago from Indonesia</li>
</ul>


Among bigger cap GEM banks, we pick four longs and two shorts as our conviction calls for 2023
Our core buys are Bank Mandiri from Indonesia, Hana Financial from South Korea, China Construction Bank and BanColombia; we also have a special mentions category for Banco Itau and Nubank
Our key sells are ICICI Bank from India and digital bank Jago from Indonesia


<ul>
<li>Lula’s narrow win in the second round of the Brazilian Presential election has so far passed in relative calm, although sitting President Jair Bolsonaro has yet to concede defeat</li>
<li>Markets will be hoping for a peaceful transition, and influential Bolsonaro allies have asked Brazilians to respect the result, to avoid social unrest and any potential intervention by the military</li>
<li>It is unclear how anti-market Lula’s policies will be but we expect downside risk for Brazilian financials and fintechs; Banco do Brasil is in for volatility, Itausa may be defensive</li>
</ul>


Lula’s narrow win in the second round of the Brazilian Presential election has so far passed in relative calm, although sitting President Jair Bolsonaro has yet to concede defeat
Markets will be hoping for a peaceful transition, and influential Bolsonaro allies have asked Brazilians to respect the result, to avoid social unrest and any potential intervention by the military
It is unclear how anti-market Lula’s policies will be but we expect downside risk for Brazilian financials and fintechs; Banco do Brasil is in for volatility, Itausa may be defensive


Brazilian Presidential Election; What Could a Lula Victory Mean for Financials and Fintech?

<ul>
<li>Brazil’s consumer credit quality trends to August deteriorated across most consumer categories, and especially in the case of the credit cards</li>
<li>System loan growth was +16.8% for the twelve months to August, a slight slowdown from the July YoY rate (+16.9%), due largely to slower consumer loan growth</li>
<li>The BCB’s latest Focus report indicates that the 13.75% benchmark rate should remain in double digits into 2023; we favour Banco do Brasil, for good credit quality and attractive valuations</li>
</ul>


Brazil’s consumer credit quality trends to August deteriorated across most consumer categories, and especially in the case of the credit cards
System loan growth was +16.8% for the twelve months to August, a slight slowdown from the July YoY rate (+16.9%), due largely to slower consumer loan growth
The BCB’s latest Focus report indicates that the 13.75% benchmark rate should remain in double digits into 2023; we favour Banco do Brasil, for good credit quality and attractive valuations


August Brazil Bank Data in Charts – Credit Spreads Keep Rising, but Consumer NPL Trends Worsened

Brazil

Banco do Brasil is a Brazilian financial services company offering a wide range of banking products and services, including retail and corporate banking, investment management, insurance, and agribusiness loans. It serves individuals, companies, and the public sector, with a strong leadership position in retail banking in Brazil. The company is headquartered in Brasília, Brazil, and was founded on October 12, 1808.

Price Gauge
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Banco do Brasil (BBAS3 BR)

GEM Banks; 2024 Conviction Calls

2024 GEM Bank picks: Longs in improving return Bank Mandiri, and value plays KB Financial, China Merchants Bank, and Banco do Brasil, with a short...

Victor Galliano

MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

MSCI $ACWI, MSCI EM $EEM Still Above Supports at $90.50-$91.50 and $37, though being tested today. Meanwhile, broken indexes (EURO $STOXX 50,...

Vermilion Research

GEM Banks; Conviction Calls for 2023

Our core buys are Bank Mandiri, Hana Financial, China Construction Bank and BanColombia; we also have special mention for Banco Itau and Nubank;...

Victor Galliano

Brazilian Presidential Election; What Could a Lula Victory Mean for Financials and Fintech?

Lula's victory is near term negative for Brazil risk assets; in fintech & financials, we see volatility risk for Banco do Brasil, we are negative...

Victor Galliano

August Brazil Bank Data in Charts – Credit Spreads Keep Rising, but Consumer NPL Trends Worsened

Credit spreads continue to rise - even after benchmark rates have peaked - but the August data shows rising NPL trends in credit cards, auto...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

GEM Banks; 2024 Conviction Calls

2024 ​GEM Bank picks: Longs in improving return Bank Mandiri, and value plays KB Financial, China Merchants Bank, and Banco do Brasil, with a short...

Victor Galliano

MSCI ACWI, MSCI EM Still Above Supports; Buys in Global Value - Financials and Communications

MSCI $ACWI, MSCI EM $EEM Still Above Supports at $90.50-$91.50 and $37, though being tested today. Meanwhile, broken indexes (EURO $STOXX 50,...

Vermilion Research

GEM Banks; Conviction Calls for 2023

Our core buys are Bank Mandiri, Hana Financial, China Construction Bank and BanColombia; we also have special mention for Banco Itau and Nubank;...

Victor Galliano

Brazilian Presidential Election; What Could a Lula Victory Mean for Financials and Fintech?

Lula's victory is near term negative for Brazil risk assets; in fintech & financials, we see volatility risk for Banco do Brasil, we are negative...

Victor Galliano

August Brazil Bank Data in Charts – Credit Spreads Keep Rising, but Consumer NPL Trends Worsened

Credit spreads continue to rise - even after benchmark rates have peaked - but the August data shows rising NPL trends in credit cards, auto...

Victor Galliano

2024 GEM Bank picks: Longs in improving return Bank Mandiri, and value plays KB Financial, China Merchants Bank, and Banco do Brasil, with a short...