Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Softbank has invested USD7bn in tech throughout Latin America since 3Q 2019, with 40% dedicated to fintech; we focus in on the listed fintech holdings, specifically Nubank and Banco Inter</li>
<li>In the 2Q22 market sell-off, we estimate that Softbank is holding 55+% unrealized losses in Nubank, with a similar level of losses on its more recent Banco Inter investments</li>
<li>These two neobanks have good client penetration but face profitability challenges; as a key shareholder, Softbank could push for transformative Nu-Inter M&amp;A, otherwise Softbank could seek to exit these investments</li>
</ul>


Softbank has invested USD7bn in tech throughout Latin America since 3Q 2019, with 40% dedicated to fintech; we focus in on the listed fintech holdings, specifically Nubank and Banco Inter
In the 2Q22 market sell-off, we estimate that Softbank is holding 55+% unrealized losses in Nubank, with a similar level of losses on its more recent Banco Inter investments
These two neobanks have good client penetration but face profitability challenges; as a key shareholder, Softbank could push for transformative Nu-Inter M&amp;A, otherwise Softbank could seek to exit these investments


Softbank (9984 JP) In Latin America: Focus on Fintechs and the LatAm Neobanks

<ul>
<li>We think of value based on traditional valuation metrics, such as PE multiples and PBV ratios, and supplement these by metrics like PE to growth ratios to identify the more attractive names amongst growth – including FinTech – stocks</li>
<li>In Brazil, we continue to like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-do-brasil-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24564:1" rel="noopener">Banco Do Brasil Sa (BBAS3 BZ)</a>  and we add <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-bradesco-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24569:1" rel="noopener">Banco Bradesco Sa (BBDC4 BZ)</a> to the attractive value category</li>
<li>We turn cautious on Brazilian challenger <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-inter-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28162:1" rel="noopener">Banco Inter SA (BIDI11 BZ)</a>, based on valuation; it trades on a consensus 2022E PBV ratio of 17.8x and even compared to Nubank’s estimated valuation, and those of other digital banks, Inter seems expensive</li>
<li>In Mexico, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grupo-financiero-banorte-o" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24780:1" rel="noopener">Grupo Financiero Banorte-O (GFNORTEO MF)</a> is much more of a positive consensus recommendation, yet we still believe that the stock has further to run</li>
<li>There is heightened political risk in Peru; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/credicorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25963:1" rel="noopener">Credicorp Ltd (BAP US)</a>  has de-rated and is a stock to watch</li>
<li>Among the LatAm payments companies, we are positive on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pagseguro-digital-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27939:1" rel="noopener">Pagseguro Digital Ltd (PAGS US)</a> </li>
<li>Despite its premium growth in AUM, we are cautious on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xp-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28619:1" rel="noopener">XP Inc (XP US)</a>, due to eroding take rate and rising IFA costs</li>
<li>In exchanges, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/b3-sa-brasil-bolsa-balcao" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24580:1" rel="noopener">B3 Sa - Brasil Bolsa Balcao (B3SA3 BZ)</a>’s valuations have descended from the stratosphere but we believe that this stock could have further downside risk</li>
<li>Risks to our positive view on Banco do Brasil and Bradesco include higher than expected NPLs and lower than expected credit spreads, as well as soft fee growth; similar risks apply to Banorte, BanBajio and in the case of Credicorp we also add political risk; Banco Inter’s upside risks include better than expected opex control especially on new customer acquisition driving better than expected returns; XP upside risks include higher than expected take rate and lower than expected opex, and B3 could deliver stronger than expected revenue growth in FICC and derivatives especially</li>
</ul>


We think of value based on traditional valuation metrics, such as PE multiples and PBV ratios, and supplement these by metrics like PE to growth ratios to identify the more attractive names amongst growth – including FinTech – stocks
In Brazil, we continue to like Banco Do Brasil Sa (BBAS3 BZ)  and we add Banco Bradesco Sa (BBDC4 BZ) to the attractive value category
We turn cautious on Brazilian challenger Banco Inter SA (BIDI11 BZ), based on valuation; it trades on a consensus 2022E PBV ratio of 17.8x and even compared to Nubank’s estimated valuation, and those of other digital banks, Inter seems expensive
In Mexico, Grupo Financiero Banorte-O (GFNORTEO MF) is much more of a positive consensus recommendation, yet we still believe that the stock has further to run
There is heightened political risk in Peru; Credicorp Ltd (BAP US)  has de-rated and is a stock to watch
Among the LatAm payments companies, we are positive on Pagseguro Digital Ltd (PAGS US) 
Despite its premium growth in AUM, we are cautious on XP Inc (XP US), due to eroding take rate and rising IFA costs
In exchanges, B3 Sa - Brasil Bolsa Balcao (B3SA3 BZ)’s valuations have descended from the stratosphere but we believe that this stock could have further downside risk
Risks to our positive view on Banco do Brasil and Bradesco include higher than expected NPLs and lower than expected credit spreads, as well as soft fee growth; similar risks apply to Banorte, BanBajio and in the case of Credicorp we also add political risk; Banco Inter’s upside risks include better than expected opex control especially on new customer acquisition driving better than expected returns; XP upside risks include higher than expected take rate and lower than expected opex, and B3 could deliver stronger than expected revenue growth in FICC and derivatives especially


LatAm Financials Review: Focus on the Value Opportunities

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our bullish outlook remains intact and is supported by the absence of breakdowns across major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) and ongoing positive market dynamics. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months.

Our bullish outlook remains intact and is supported by the absence of breakdowns across major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) and ongoing positive market dynamics. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months.

Global Equity Strategy: Stick With Reflation & Reopening Theme

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

We are no longer recommending an overweight to China (MSCI China) due to recent RS deterioration. Our favorite countries remain Taiwan (TAIEX) and India (SENSEX), while Brazil (Bovespa) and South Korea (KOSPI) display improving price and RS trends -- add exposure. MSCI EM Technology and Materials are our top two Sector overweights. Additionally, the EM Health Care Sector shows bullish price and RS inflections, making it a timely Sector to add exposure to at current levels.

We are no longer recommending an overweight to China (MSCI China) due to recent RS deterioration. Our favorite countries remain Taiwan (TAIEX) and India (SENSEX), while Brazil (Bovespa) and South Korea (KOSPI) display improving price and RS trends -- add exposure. MSCI EM Technology and Materials are our top two Sector overweights. Additionally, the EM Health Care Sector shows bullish price and RS inflections, making it a timely Sector to add exposure to at current levels.

Overweight EM Vs. EAFE; Dollar Weakness Continues

<ul><li>The Covid-19 pandemic is driving customer to change behaviour, and is accelerating and deepening the shift to digital banking and financial services, which presents hurdles for incumbents and mainly opportunities for FinTechs</li></ul><ul><li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-inter-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28162:1" rel="noopener">Banco Inter SA (BIDI11 BZ)</a>  is our preferred name on growth potential, solidity of capital base and steady customer growth; it offers premium growth prospects and trades on an attractive PEG</li></ul><ul><li>In the Brazil digital banking space, the leader, Nubank, remains privately owned, and it does not yet appear to have IPO plans</li></ul><ul><li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-pan-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28163:1" rel="noopener">Banco Pan SA (BPAN4 BZ)</a> is one to watch in the low-income space; it is transitioning from a low-income focused traditional to digital bank</li></ul><ul><li>These digital banks, along with the central bank promoting regulatory change, are driving the big Brazil banks onto the defensive; they will need to address opex more immediately to limit the erosion of their revenues and ultimately returns</li></ul><ul><li>The incumbents’ drive to lower opex is challenged by the need to continue to invest in and spend on their digital transformation, as well as the need to accelerate IT spend to account for consumer habits becoming increasingly digital under Covid-19</li></ul><ul><li>Risks to our positive view on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/banco-inter-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28162:1" rel="noopener">Banco Inter SA (BIDI11 BZ)</a> and digital bank opportunities include incumbent bank client inertia, high customer acquisition costs for digital banks and slow cross-sales growth as well as higher than expected cost of risk for digital banks</li></ul>

The Covid-19 pandemic is driving customer to change behaviour, and is accelerating and deepening the shift to digital banking and financial services, which presents hurdles for incumbents and mainly opportunities for FinTechs
Banco Inter SA (BIDI11 BZ)  is our preferred name on growth potential, solidity of capital base and steady customer growth; it offers premium growth prospects and trades on an attractive PEGIn the Brazil digital banking space, the leader, Nubank, remains privately owned, and it does not yet appear to have IPO plans
Banco Pan SA (BPAN4 BZ) is one to watch in the low-income space; it is transitioning from a low-income focused traditional to digital bankThese digital banks, along with the central bank promoting regulatory change, are driving the big Brazil banks onto the defensive; they will need to address opex more immediately to limit the erosion of their revenues and ultimately returnsThe incumbents’ drive to lower opex is challenged by the need to continue to invest in and spend on their digital transformation, as well as the need to accelerate IT spend to account for consumer habits becoming increasingly digital under Covid-19Risks to our positive view on Banco Inter SA (BIDI11 BZ) and digital bank opportunities include incumbent bank client inertia, high customer acquisition costs for digital banks and slow cross-sales growth as well as higher than expected cost of risk for digital banks

Brazil Digital Banking: Client Behaviour Changes Driving Growth, with Regulatory Catalysts

Brazil

Inter & Co is a Brazilian financial technology company that operates as a digital multi-service bank, offering a comprehensive range of banking, credit, investments, payments, and lifestyle solutions. The company provides services through a digital banking super app, which includes checking accounts, loans, insurance, and a marketplace. Founded in 1994, Inter & Co is headquartered in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.

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Inter & Co (INBR32 BR)

Softbank (9984 JP) In Latin America: Focus on Fintechs and the LatAm Neobanks

LatAm equity investments have added to Softbank's total equity value and rose to a 5% share in March; we expect this to go sharply into reverse at...

Victor Galliano

LatAm Financials Review: Focus on the Value Opportunities

We identify the most attractive LatAm financials on value and GARP metrics; Banco do Brasil, Bradesco, Banorte, BanBajio, PagSeguro; we are...

Victor Galliano

Global Equity Strategy: Stick With Reflation & Reopening Theme

Our bullish outlook remains intact supported by the absence of breakdowns across major global indexes. Until this changes, we believe global...

Vermilion Research

Overweight EM Vs. EAFE; Dollar Weakness Continues

Our favorite countries remain Taiwan (TAIEX) and India (SENSEX), while Brazil (Bovespa) and South Korea (KOSPI) display improving price and RS...

Vermilion Research

Brazil Digital Banking: Client Behaviour Changes Driving Growth, with Regulatory Catalysts

The Covid-19 pandemic is driving customer to change behaviour, and is accelerating and deepening the shift to digital banking and financial...

Victor Galliano

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